A Rough Landing May Be Ahead

After this morning’s surpisingly high weekly jobless claims data, this is now even more appropriate (from the RJ Matson collection of the St. Louis Post Dispatch).
IMAGE Is it just me or has anyone else noticed that many of the Olympic ski jumpers have their mouths wide open while they’re soaring through the air?

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Greece, credit default swaps, and the SEC

In reading about the many problems confronted by the Greek government in trying to, somehow, become a bit more prudent with their finances, it quickly becomes clear that credit default swaps and other derivatives have been and still are playing major roles.

Word comes in this Reuters report that the SEC is now taking an active interest in these products that one former Fed chairman used to speak glowingly about.

SEC examines destabilizing effects of CDS

Securities regulators said on Thursday they are examining the potential abuses and destabilizing effects of credit default swaps, a financial instrument that can be used to speculate on an issuer’s credit worthiness.

The Securities and Exchange Commission comments come after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said regulators were looking at how Goldman Sachs and other Wall Street companies helped Greece arrange derivative deals. The SEC would not confirm or deny it was investigating Goldman’s role in Greece.

“As an agency, we have been examining potential abuses and destabilizing effects related to the use of credit default swaps and other opaque financial products and practices,” SEC spokesman John Nester said.

In this report it is learned that the notional value of the derivatives market now stands at about a half quadrillion dollars (yes, that would be almost $500 trillion) and that elected officials in Washington, thus far, are making little or no progress in moving forward with any kind of regulatory reform.

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Gold and the U.S. Dollar Tango Anew

It’s been an interesting few days and an even more intriguing last two hours or so for both the trade-weighted U.S. dollar and the gold price as, on a daily basis at least, they now seem to be moving together more often than not. On Monday and Wednesday this week they were both down and now, today, they’re both up a little.

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That area circled in yellow – around $1,100 an ounce in New York trading – seems to have been hotly contested over the last few days. Based on the latest economic developments in the U.S. (mostly bad) and the latest political intrigue involving Greece (mostly bad), anything could happen over the next day or so for the dollar, the euro, and the gold price.

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The Greeks and their Gold in Germany

The latest development in the ongoing saga of the Greek budget troubles and the European Union is that, apparently, the Greeks want some of their gold back that the Germans took in World War II. Either that or they want or an apology, or maybe even a thank you, according to this report in the BBC today.

Greece angers Germany in gold row
Greek Deputy Prime Minister Theodoros Pangalos has accused Germany of failing to compensate Greece for Nazi occupation during World War II.

Mr Pangalos made the remarks during a wide-ranging BBC interview about Greece’s financial difficulties.

They [the Nazis] took away the Greek gold that was in the Bank of Greece, they took away the Greek money and they never gave it back,” he said.

Here’s where the story kind of breaks down:

I don’t say they have to give back the money necessarily, but they have to say thanks. And they [the German government] shouldn’t complain much about stealing and not being very specific about economic dealings.”

Mr Pangalos’ comments elicited an icy response from German Foreign Ministry spokesman Andreas Peschke. “I must reject these accusations,” he said.

It sounds as though conditions are not improving over there and downgrades (or the threat of downgrades) do not seem to be helping much.

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Jobless Claims Rise Sharply

The Labor Department reported that weekly jobless claims rose from 474,000 to 496,000 for the week ending February 20th, the highest total since last November.

The four-week moving average, used to smooth week-to-week volatility, also rose to a three-month high, up from 467,750 to 473,500 as shown below where recessions are indicated in gray, the mid-2009 end date of the last recession estimated based on consensus forecasts.
IMAGE Part of the reason for the increase last week was the weather-related delay in processing new unemployment insurance claims in the mid-Atlantic and New England states, however, this does not substantively affect the moving average which is now headed upward again.

How long this recent trend lasts is anyone’s guess, but it is worth noting that the current level of jobless claims was exceeded on only three occasions during the prior recession in 2001, immediately after the September 11th attacks.

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