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REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

You Say It’s Your Birthday!

On February 26, 2010, in Personal, by Tim

Today is my birthday – I’m 50.

Apparently, a lot of people attach some special significance to nice round numbers like this, but, to tell you the truth, if not for everyone else telling me how important this birthday is, I wouldn’t have thought much of it.

Maybe that has something to do with the fact that when people ask me how old I am I have to stop and think about it a bit before answering – it should be much easier now, at least for the next year.

I received birthday wishes from two friends from highschool today who I haven’t spoken with for more than 20 years.

Weird!

Other notable birthdays on this day are John Harvey Kellogg (1852 – Kellog’s cereal), Victor Hugo (1802), William F. “Buffalo Bill” Cody (1846), Johnny Cash (1932), Fats Domino (1928), and Robert Novak (1931).

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Dimon: Worry about Greece, not California

On February 26, 2010, in Economy, Europe, by Tim

Barron’s reports that JP Morgan chief Jamie Dimon is a lot less concerned about Greece and the euro than he is about California and its growing budget troubles. Like the Greeks, officials in the Golden State had to cancel a bond sale this week and the two are competing for the top spot as poster-child for government overspending.

“Greece itself would not be an issue for this company, nor would any other country,” Dimon said, according to Dow Jones’s Matthias Rieker. “We don’t really foresee the European Union coming apart.”

However, given California’s size, “there could be contagion” if the state were to have problems servicing its debts, Dimon warned.

In a related story, there seems to have been Greek-like unrest in Berkeley last night as a budget cut protest party turned violent. Campus property was reportedly damaged and then the 200-strong protest moved out onto city streets where trash cans were set on fire, windows were smashed, and the police were called.

Ironically, this was just the pre-protest planning party, not the protest itself that is (or, at least, was) scheduled for next week. Two people were arrested, alcohol was apparently involved, and there was no word on how this might impact next week’s demonstrations.

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Existing Home Sales Tumble in January

On February 26, 2010, in Housing, by Tim

The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes fell 7.2 percent in January to an annual rate of 5.05 million units after a plunge of 16.7 percent in December. This comes following a surge in home sales late last summer as the homebuyer tax credit was believed to be about to expire, a program that has since been extended through June.
IMAGE The median sales price for existing homes was unchanged from a year ago at $164,700 and first-time homebuyers were said to account for 40 percent of purchases during January while investors were responsible for 17 percent of all transactions. Sales are expected to increase again in the months ahead as the April 30th contract signing deadline for the tax credit nears.

Anyone looking to buy a house would do well to consider this item at the WSJ Developments blog that asks whether it’s better to wait to buy. The short answer is that, unless you really need the tax credit and can’t get financed at mortgage rates at much over five percent, you’ll probably be a lot better off later in the year because, unless these two conditions persist, lower prices are likely ahead.

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China Will Will Not Buy the IMF Gold

On February 26, 2010, in Asia, Commodities, by Tim

Some of yesterday’s surge in the price of gold bullion was apparently driven by this report from Pravda that his since been de-bunked by the more mainstream financial press:

China has confirmed the intention to purchase 191.3 tons of gold from the International Monetary Fund at an open auction, Finmarket news agency said.
…
“Chinese officials have confirmed previous announcements from IMF experts and said that the purchasing of 191 tons of gold would not exert negative influence on the world market. China is interested in the development of the domestic consumer market,” the agency reports.

Well, maybe not – Reuters followed up and filed this report:

Contacted by Reuters, the author of the Rough and Polished story, Nadezhda Shagrova, who works as a tour guide and journalist in Shanghai, said she did not have any official information to back up her story.

“The source for the story? Well, that’s been written about in lots of places. I mean, Xinhua news agency wrote about that and other official Chinese sources, lots of them. Why are you asking?”

Told that gold prices were moving on her story, she said: “No, no, there’s just no way that could be because of my article.”

As reported in China Economic Review this morning, an official at the China Gold Association said China would not buy any IMF gold, a view that has been widely held for many months since they are now the world’s number one producer of gold and, when combined with overseas acquisitions have a natural source of supply to add to their holdings.

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U.S. Growth Revised Up to 5.9% Rate in Q4

On February 26, 2010, in Economy, by Tim

The Commerce Department reported that U.S. economic growth during the fourth quarter was revised upward, from an annualized rate of 5.7 percent to 5.9 percent, largely due to an even bigger contribution from rising inventories.

For all of 2009, the economy contracted 2.4 percent, the worst performance since 1946.
IMAGE In this report, the second of three estimates for the fourth quarter, inventories accounted for almost four percentage points of the overall growth rate – nearly two-thirds of the total.

The improvement in consumer spending was revised downward, from a rate of 2.0 percent to 1.7 percent, accounting for just 1.23 percentage points of the overall growth rate, however, this comes after the sharpest contraction in spending in decades. For the year, personal consumption dropped 0.6 percent, the sharpest decline in 26 years.

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Friday morning links

On February 26, 2010, in Uncategorized, by Tim

TOP STORIES
Greece Delays Bond Sale Amid Turmoil – WSJ
Analysis: What Greece tells us about Europe – CNN
AIG Posts $8.9 Billion Loss on Charges, Reserves – CNBC
Obama May Prohibit Home-Loan Foreclosures Without HAMP Review – Bloomberg
Probe: Did big U.S. banks contribute to the financial crisis in Greece? – Washington Post
Is Goldman Finally About to be Leashed and Collared? – Naked Capitalism
Bernanke wants answers on Goldman role in Greece – Reuters
On Wall Street, a Romance With Curling – NY Times

MARKETS/INVESTING
Oil hovers above $78 on mixed demand – AP
China To Purchase Half of IMF’s Gold – Pravda
“China buying IMF gold” story unfounded – Reuters
What VIX Says About Market ‘Gloom and Doom’: Trading Execs – CNBC
Allianz Flight From Equities Leads to Parking, Wind – Bloomberg
China, India still bullish on gold – Commodity Online

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