China Will Will Not Buy the IMF Gold

Some of yesterday’s surge in the price of gold bullion was apparently driven by this report from Pravda that his since been de-bunked by the more mainstream financial press:

China has confirmed the intention to purchase 191.3 tons of gold from the International Monetary Fund at an open auction, Finmarket news agency said.

Chinese officials have confirmed previous announcements from IMF experts and said that the purchasing of 191 tons of gold would not exert negative influence on the world market. China is interested in the development of the domestic consumer market,” the agency reports.

Well, maybe not – Reuters followed up and filed this report:

Contacted by Reuters, the author of the Rough and Polished story, Nadezhda Shagrova, who works as a tour guide and journalist in Shanghai, said she did not have any official information to back up her story.

“The source for the story? Well, that’s been written about in lots of places. I mean, Xinhua news agency wrote about that and other official Chinese sources, lots of them. Why are you asking?”

Told that gold prices were moving on her story, she said: “No, no, there’s just no way that could be because of my article.”

As reported in China Economic Review this morning, an official at the China Gold Association said China would not buy any IMF gold, a view that has been widely held for many months since they are now the world’s number one producer of gold and, when combined with overseas acquisitions have a natural source of supply to add to their holdings.

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U.S. Growth Revised Up to 5.9% Rate in Q4

The Commerce Department reported that U.S. economic growth during the fourth quarter was revised upward, from an annualized rate of 5.7 percent to 5.9 percent, largely due to an even bigger contribution from rising inventories.

For all of 2009, the economy contracted 2.4 percent, the worst performance since 1946.
IMAGE In this report, the second of three estimates for the fourth quarter, inventories accounted for almost four percentage points of the overall growth rate – nearly two-thirds of the total.

The improvement in consumer spending was revised downward, from a rate of 2.0 percent to 1.7 percent, accounting for just 1.23 percentage points of the overall growth rate, however, this comes after the sharpest contraction in spending in decades. For the year, personal consumption dropped 0.6 percent, the sharpest decline in 26 years.

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A Rough Landing May Be Ahead

After this morning’s surpisingly high weekly jobless claims data, this is now even more appropriate (from the RJ Matson collection of the St. Louis Post Dispatch).
IMAGE Is it just me or has anyone else noticed that many of the Olympic ski jumpers have their mouths wide open while they’re soaring through the air?

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Greece, credit default swaps, and the SEC

In reading about the many problems confronted by the Greek government in trying to, somehow, become a bit more prudent with their finances, it quickly becomes clear that credit default swaps and other derivatives have been and still are playing major roles.

Word comes in this Reuters report that the SEC is now taking an active interest in these products that one former Fed chairman used to speak glowingly about.

SEC examines destabilizing effects of CDS

Securities regulators said on Thursday they are examining the potential abuses and destabilizing effects of credit default swaps, a financial instrument that can be used to speculate on an issuer’s credit worthiness.

The Securities and Exchange Commission comments come after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said regulators were looking at how Goldman Sachs and other Wall Street companies helped Greece arrange derivative deals. The SEC would not confirm or deny it was investigating Goldman’s role in Greece.

“As an agency, we have been examining potential abuses and destabilizing effects related to the use of credit default swaps and other opaque financial products and practices,” SEC spokesman John Nester said.

In this report it is learned that the notional value of the derivatives market now stands at about a half quadrillion dollars (yes, that would be almost $500 trillion) and that elected officials in Washington, thus far, are making little or no progress in moving forward with any kind of regulatory reform.

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Gold and the U.S. Dollar Tango Anew

It’s been an interesting few days and an even more intriguing last two hours or so for both the trade-weighted U.S. dollar and the gold price as, on a daily basis at least, they now seem to be moving together more often than not. On Monday and Wednesday this week they were both down and now, today, they’re both up a little.

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That area circled in yellow – around $1,100 an ounce in New York trading – seems to have been hotly contested over the last few days. Based on the latest economic developments in the U.S. (mostly bad) and the latest political intrigue involving Greece (mostly bad), anything could happen over the next day or so for the dollar, the euro, and the gold price.

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