New Home Sales Reach New Record Lows

The Census Bureau reported(.pdf) that new home sales reached a new record low last month, down 11.2 percent from 348,000 units in December to just 309,000 units in January, in what looks to be the beginning of another very difficult year for the homebuilders.
IMAGE The level of new home sales last month came in below the prior record low of 329,000 reached in January 2009, a full 78 percent below the peak level of sales in 2005.

Even more astonishing is the fact that the pre-2009 record low of 338,000, seen in September of 1981, works out to be about 406,000 when adjusted for population growth, meaning that the January new home sales level could rise by about 31 percent next month and still only reach the pre-2009 population-adjusted record low.

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A Closer Look at the Consumer Confidence Data

In this item from yesterday, Jake over at ECONOMPICDATA breaks down yesterday’s sharp decline in consumer confidence as reported by the Conference Board.
IMAGE Recall that the Present Situations Index fell to its lowest level since 1983 and the Expectations Index dropped more than 13 points to 63.8, far short of the levels typically associated with economic recoveries. Looking at the chart, you’d think that the Jobs are Plentiful Index must also be at or near record lows – it registered only 3.6.

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A Shocking Turnaround in Prices

This chart hasn’t been updated in over a year and, with recent changes in both the Consumer Price Index and the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, the results are stunning.
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Somehow, the bust of 2007-2009 seems to have been all so unnecessary, that is, if a more realistic measure of “inflation” had been used back in the middle of the last decade.

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From Squanderville to Sorrowland

Back in 2003, Warren Buffet wrote the memorable Squanderville vs. Thriftville in which he lamented the growing U.S. trade deficit and wondered how long we Squandervillians could continue down a road where Thriftvillians in Asia would go on accepting our IOUs in exchange for goods they worked so hard to produce.

Buffet proposed some common sense solutions to remedying the problem and it was a timely warning that, if heeded, may have made the events of the last few years much less traumatic for the global financial system. But, ultimately, nobody really listened.

Fast forward to 2010 and Buffet’s partner Charles Munger now has an equally important commentary over at Slate (hat tip JW) and, it too is a desert island parable. This time, instead of Squanderville, it’s Basicland, where, after hundreds of years of responsible living, casinos seem to have destroyed the place.

Basically, It’s Over
A parable about how one nation came to financial ruin.

In the early 1700s, Europeans discovered in the Pacific Ocean a large, unpopulated island with a temperate climate, rich in all nature’s bounty except coal, oil, and natural gas. Reflecting its lack of civilization, they named this island “Basicland.”

The Europeans rapidly repopulated Basicland, creating a new nation. They installed a system of government like that of the early United States. There was much encouragement of trade, and no internal tariff or other impediment to such trade. Property rights were greatly respected and strongly enforced. The banking system was simple. It adapted to a national ethos that sought to provide a sound currency, efficient trade, and ample loans for credit-worthy businesses while strongly discouraging loans to the incompetent or…

Based on the title of Charlie’s commentary and the one atop this post, it’s not too hard to figure out where this is all going – it all has to do with what was done with debt.

(more…)

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The Mood of the Consumer Darkens

The Christian Science Monitor had, by far, the best headline on the plunge in consumer confidence reported by the Conference Board a short time ago:

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Contrary to what Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and Goldman Sachs chief Lloyd Blankfein might want to believe, the two are not unrelated.

Details are provided in this EconoDay report where an important bit of information is left out, barely discernible in the chart, that this is the lowest reading since last April:

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell back in a surprising and sizable way, down nearly 10 points to 46.0 in February (January revised to 56.5). Expectations, the index’s leading component, fell more than 13 points to 63.8 reflecting a sweeping sentiment downturn in income, employment, and business conditions.

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The expectations index never really got going last year, barely approaching the watershed 80 level, a level consistent in the past with economic expansion.

Maybe that’s because, with the exception of Wall Street, the U.S. economy never really got going last year, and people are just now beginning to figure that out.

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