REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

Kunstler on the U.S. Housing Market

Before leaving the topic of the latest Case-Shiller home price data (the S&P site is still unavailable, at least from my computer) and looking at the most recent consumer confidence data that can only be described as “disastrous”, it seemed worthwhile to share a few of Jim Kunstlers thoughts about the nation’s housing market from his most recent missive.

Faced with the hangover of a housing bubble, the president’s team has insidiously nationalized the racket and is doing everything possible to keep housing prices unrealistically inflated, so that nobody still lucky enough to have a median income can afford the median price of a house.

Meanwhile, the agencies used to facilitate this accounting shell game — Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae, etc. — are choking on worthless mortgage contracts and generating ever more new toxic mortgage paper.

That about sums it up but, you’re unlikely to hear similar candor from the vast majority of the mainstream media. Moreover, most government economists still seem to think that the fundamental problem here is that home prices have already fallen too far and another leg down could spell doom for economic growth as we once knew it.

Has the disconnect between policymakers and the real world ever been any greater?

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Seasonal Adjustments to the CS-HPI

In response to an email request that asked the question of how current seasonal adjustments compare to past seasonal adjustments for this time of year for the 20-City Case-Shiller Home Price Index, the following chart was promptly whipped up.

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The scale on the left is simply the difference between the seasonally adjusted monthly change and the unadjusted figure, so, in the case of December, +0.3 percent minus -0.2 percent (as noted in the last post) results in about +0.5, which looks to be low, if anything.

Seasonal adjustments peak in January and given the fact that the precise data was not yet available when this chart was prepared, there’s a built-in margin of error of +/-0.1, so, the most recent adjustment could actually be a bit higher, more in line with prior years.

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Case Shiller Home Prices Go Up … and Down

The server at Standard and Poors appears to be overloaded, so, without the entire S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index report for the month of December, the best that can be done here is to take the two conflicting headlines you may now be reading and update the chart below.

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Note: The chart above is animated – if you don’t see it moving, it’s not my fault.

Adding to the ongoing confusion about what’s happening in the nation’s housing market, the 20-city home price index rose 0.3 percent from November to December on a seasonally adjusted basis, but fell 0.2 percent when seasonal factors are not taken into account.

So, are home prices rising or falling?

Technically, they are now falling and have been for three months, however, when you consider that upward price moves are much stronger in the summer months than during the winter and adjust the data accordingly, home prices are now rising.

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