REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

The FCIC’s Witness #1

The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (FCIC) announced the schedule for next week’s hearings on the subjects of subprime lending and mortgage securitization. While clearly they’ll begin looking in the right place, they probably won’t get any good answers.

It should be another interesting Q&A with the former Fed Chairman sitting alone, explaining how he presided over the biggest financial bubble in history. If asked, he’ll no doubt say that the fall of the Berlin Wall was the root cause and that interest rates were just right.

Richard Bitner in Session 2 sent me a copy of his book  a while back and we exchanged a few emails – see here for the review.  This announcement also generated a nice “Greenspan Mess” sighting, this one at the WSJ: “Greenspan to Testify on Subprime Mess







There’s something about the satire of Stephen Colbert and Jon Stewart at Comedy Central that provides a whole new perspective to the ongoing financial market crisis and our economic troubles. Here, Colbert talks to Simon Johnson about “too big to fail” and you can almost see how some on Wall Street might say very seriously what he says in jest.

This is yet another case where you don’t really know whether to laugh, cry, or do both since it looks like substantive financial market reform remains a pipe-dream and that we are again barreling toward another crisis somewhere down the road.

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More Outrage Over JP Morgan

In this commentary at the Huffington Post, Robert Garcia of National Public Radio expresses his outrage about the views of a JP Morgan analyst Michael Feroli who, in a research note, argues that jobless benefits are causing an even bigger unemployment problem.

Outrage #1
Go ahead, Michael Feroli, please share your great economic wisdom with us:

“Jobless benefits have the potential to increase the unemployment rate through two channels. First, by softening the blow of losing a job, they allow unemployed persons to become more selective in what job offer they accept, thereby raising the average duration of unemployment and increasing the unemployment rate.”

Oh, yes, the economy is creating so many employment opportunities that people are in a position to be “selective?” What planet is this wanker living on? There are several hundred, in some cases, several thousand, applicants per job opening. JP Morgan’s resident economic genius apparently thinks it’s the other way around and that there are hundreds of job offers for every unemployed person.

Outrage #2
Let’s now go to the other leg of his hypothesis:

“Second, jobless benefits may encourage people who would otherwise drop out of the labor force to be counted as jobseekers and therefore in the labor force.”

In his breathlessly illogical construct, Mr. Feroli is saying that because in order to receive jobless bennies you have to show you are looking for work, you are counted as a member of the job force and that makes the nation’s official unemployment rate higher. Note to Feroli: If you drop out of the labor force you are still jobless.

There’s more here about a report that probably didn’t raise eyebrows at one of the world’s biggest banks, but, when viewed through a more populist lens makes that particular bank seem even more cold and inconsiderate than they already are. That is, if that’s possible.

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Today’s report by ADP (Automatic Data Processing) showing that private sector employers shed 23,000 jobs last month puts a little damper on the party planning for Friday’s monthly labor report from the government’s BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics). From Reuters:

U.S. private employers cut 23,000 jobs in March, missing expectations for an increase in jobs although fewer than the adjusted 24,000 jobs lost in February, a report by a private employment service said on Wednesday.

The U.S. government releases March non-farm payrolls data on Friday, although markets will be closed for the Good Friday holiday. The data is expected to show payrolls rose by 190,000 in the month.

Based on the correlation between the two reports as indicated below from Econoday, the build up for Friday’s BLS report has become all the  more intriguing.

It’s just too bad that markets will be closed for Good Friday…

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It’s funny how headlines for yesterday’s consumer confidence report left out a few critical words (appended above) about the exact nature of the rebound. The March reading for the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index made back about half of the February plunge that had taken this important gauge of the American mood back to the  level of last April, just after the worst of the financial market crisis. There’s more in this AP report.

Since so much of the U.S. economy is based on “confidence” – more specifically, both the ability and desire of Americans to spend freely when maybe they really shouldn’t – it’s hard to imagine how the pre-2008 mode of U.S. economic growth can be restored after what happened in 2008, yet, that seems to be what everyone wants.

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