As usual, when the gold price languishes for a while, it tends to get bashed by those who don’t understand it and think that, surely, after ten years and a 300+ percent gain, there can’t be even higher prices in store. But, as shown below in the Kitco Gold Index, that feeling is a distinctly American one recently as new highs in terms of other currencies were seen as recently as two weeks ago.

The two curves in the graphic are the gold price denominated in U.S. dollars (red) and the price in terms of the the U.S. Dollar Index (blue) which, for those of you who need a refresher, consists of about two-thirds the euro with smaller weightings for the Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, and a few other currencies.

The potentially very good news for American gold investors is that there appears to be a nice little “wedge” pattern developing over the last few months and these formations usually result in a big move up or down when they’re complete.

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Germany Spells Out Some Details

Well, it looks like they’re really going to have something to discuss this Thursday and Friday when the European Union meets to talk about what the group can and can not do to help Greece with their little debt problem. This story at Reuters makes clear that the Germans are open to offering some assistance, but only as a last resort and only if the IMF involved.

A senior German official spelled out Berlin’s conditions for any aid mechanism ahead of an EU summit starting on Thursday:

  • Greece would have to be unable to access credit markets;
  • The IMF would have to contribute to any rescue;
  • European Union states would have to agree to negotiate “additional instruments” to enforce budget discipline, beyond existing rules that failed to prevent Athens running up huge debts and deficits that have shaken the euro zone.

“The condition for action, as a last resort, is that Greece’s financing on the capital markets is exhausted,” the official said.

“Furthermore, it would be necessary for the International Monetary Fund to provide a substantial contribution,” he said, stressing there will be no decision on actual aid at the summit.

While the Germans hate the idea of a bailout, the rest of Europe hates the idea that the Washington-based IMF might have to come to the rescue, all of which makes the “polite default” mentioned by Martin Feldstein noted here earlier today that more likely.

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The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes fell 0.6 percent in February after a  drop of more than 7 percent in January and sales are now at their lowest level in eight months.

It’s probably best not to make too much of the winter data for existing home sales because it is a very slow time of the year when seasonal adjustments can have a big impact on the data and the weather was bad last month, but, that “Months of Supply” metric certainly looks to be going in the wrong direction right now.

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The Financial Times reports that Germany is not backing down from last week’s tough talk about a bailout, recent charges by Greece that German banks are profiting from the crisis no doubt only making things worse.

Germany has set out three fundamental preconditions for any rescue package for Greece, including involvement of the International Monetary Fund, and a commitment by its European Union partners to tough new rules to control public debt and deficits in the eurozone – including necessary EU treaty changes.

A senior government official in Berlin said there would be no agreement at this week’s EU summit on a specific rescue package for the debt-strapped Greek government.

If there were to be agreement on a “mechanism” to provide such assistance, he said, it could only be triggered once Greece had exhausted its capacity to raise money on the international capital markets; the IMF had agreed to make a “substantial contribution” to a rescue package; and the EU members has agreed to negotiate new rules to prevent any reoccurrence of such a debt crisis.

The German position was revealed in response to growing pressure from the European Commission, and other EU member states, to reach agreement on the mechanics of a rescue package for Greece at the European Council meeting on Thursday and Friday.

It looks like the common currency will be moving down again this week, but, over the long-term, the pain that is now being endured in Europe could prove to be quite helpful in demonstrating that the eurozone is serious about a sound currency, that is, if it survives.

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Martin Feldstein talks to Bloomberg News about, among many other things, the possibility for a double-dip recession in the U.S., an event that he believes is a “significant risk”.


Click to play in a new window.

It’s a familiar story of higher savings by consumers whose balance sheets have been decimated by bursting asset bubbles, all of which is leading to lower aggregate demand over the long-term and President Barack Obama apparently isn’t helping:

This (healthcare) has been his one issue. It’s almost as if he didn’t know we had a deep recession. He would say, ‘My number one concern is jobs’, but then he would immediately turn to see what he could do to increase votes for the health care legilation.

On the Greek debt crisis he thinks they’re headed for a “polite default”, meaning that, instead of paying off holders of maturing bonds with euros, they’ll just give them new bonds.

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