REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

Maestro No More

The defense of monetary policy during the gestation years of the housing bubble was reiterated (yet again) yesterday by former Fed chief Alan Greenspan in a paper(.pdf) titled “The Crisis” that is being presented today at the Brookings Institution.

While the 48 pages of text and the 18 page appendix await attention that they are unlikely to receive from me on this Friday, the contents are quite clear based on reports in the mainstream financial media and the two central points appear to be:

1. Low rates are not to blame
2. See number 1

The Wall Street Journal carries a story in the public area of their website today where Jon Hilsenrath restores some order to the recent reporting on the former Fed chairman, inserting the once-mandatory caveats that all post-2008 Greenspan stories used to carry before an image re-building campaign apparently met with some success over the last year or so:

Mr. Greenspan’s reputation has been tarnished by the crisis. Widely hailed when he left office in January 2006 as one of the greatest central bankers ever, he is now blamed by many for advocating deregulation and low interest rates during the 1990s and 2000s.

That’s more like it – the third paragraph in – short and sweet.

In his paper, Greenspan concedes that regulation failed and that the central bank didn’t see the mounting risks in the financial system, but he goes on to defend monetary policy back in 2002-2004 and blames the “savings glut” as the primary interest rate culprit, that is, the theory that short-term rates played little role in inflating the housing bubble and that the Fed was powerless over the long-term rates that did.

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Economist Steven Roach of Morgan Stanley Asia has some not-so-kind words for economist Paul Krugman and his view that the Chinese currency should be allowed to strengthen considerably from its current level.
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Says Roach: America doesn’t have a China problem, it has a savings problem … We should take out the baseball bat on Paul Krugman. I mean I think that the advice is completely wrong …. We’re lashing out at China rather than tending to our own business”.

According to this report, Krugman replied, I’m a little surprised at Steve for saying that. What I said is actually based on pretty careful economic analysis. We have a world economy which is depressed by China artificially keeping its currency undervalued.”

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Jon Stewart on Financial Market Reform

This seems to be showing up everywhere and, if you haven’t already seen it, it’s well worth ten minutes of your time if you’re in need of a good chuckle.


Quite a contrast with that last item

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The Guardian reports that there’s more than just career risk when you fail at monetary reform in North Korea – you could lose your life, as Pak Nam-gi apparently just did.

North Korea has executed a senior official blamed for currency reforms that damaged the already ailing economy and potentially affected the succession, a news agency in South Korea reported today.

Pak Nam-gi was killed by firing squad last week, said Yonhap, citing multiple sources. The Workers party chief for planning and the economy had not been seen in public since January.

The 77-year-old was put to death as “a son of a bourgeois conspiring to infiltrate the ranks of revolutionaries to destroy the national economy”, the agency said.

But it reported that many North Koreans did not believe the explanation, citing one source who said: “The mood is the leadership has made Pak Nam-gi a scapegoat.”

If you’re not familiar with the story, you might be interested to know that North Korea introduced a new local currency a while back that could be exchanged for the old currency at 1-to-100 in an attempt to control inflation and drive out foreign currencies that were thriving on a very active black market.

Like most such attempts, this move did not produce the desired results – prices soared, hoarding increased, people starved – and, in the process, it wiped out the meager savings of many citizens while benefiting state workers who were paid in the new currency.

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The Mysterious CPI Shelter Component

Well, it looks like whatever it was that was going on last month within the shelter category of the Labor Department’s consumer price data is now back to normal in this month’s report. As shown below, after considering the respective component weightings, the total seems to make sense in February (in green) versus the oddity that was January (in red).

Recall that, about a month ago in A math problem at the Labor Department? this question of addition was raised after the -0.5 percent decline in shelter costs caused the widely publicized first negative reading on month-to-month core inflation in many, many years.
IMAGE What looks to be an obvious error was attributed to seasonal adjustment. That is, after the weightings (in blue) are adjusted for seasonal factors they somehow allow the lodging away from home component to greatly impact the shelter total.

All else being equal, you’d have to increase the lodging away from home weighting by a factor of ten to get the overall shelter total as reported in January. Do that many more people travel in January than during other months of the year?

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