Well, it’s official. The yield on the ten-year note just hit four percent and, though it’s back down from that mark, given what’s happened in financial markets over the last week or two, that’s probably just a very temporary development.

Zero Hedge reports that this morning’s three-month and six-month bill auctions were the weakest so far this year. Yields at the short-end are rising and it could have been worse if not for the volume of direct bidders (those who bypass the primary dealer network and place their bids directly with the Treasury Department and, in the process, conceal their identity). It’s already shaping up to be an exciting week and it’s just getting started.











![[Most Recent USD from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_usd_en_2.gif)

My guess is we get to 4.25-4.50 max in this cycle and this will be the top for the next five years. Just a guess!
Post your guesses.
BTW, the main reason why I believe that we will top out at 4.5 is that wages in developed countries just will not grow, but if yields rise too far it will kill consumption and hurt emerging economies as well.