Another Poorly Worded Greenspan Poll

Left over from last week is this item from CNBC where readers were asked to lay blame (if any) on the former Fed chairman for his role in the financial crisis.

For those of you keeping track at home, that’s a plurality for some blame, though the distinction between the first two choices isn’t entirely clear. In my view, the best poll question on this subject is whether the former Maestro is to blame more than any other individual, since it should be clear that the responsibility could not be entirely his.







O Little Town of Bethlehem

This WSJ story about Bethlehem, Pennsylvania – just a few miles from where your humble scribe grew up – is certainly a sign of the times. It is not a good sign, however, as a once mighty steel mill, whose product was shipped through the Panama Canal in order to build the Golden Gate Bridge in the 1930s, has been turned into a casino with mixed results so far.

Five years ago, this former steel town took a gamble on Las Vegas Sands Corp., allowing the company to put a casino on the site of its historic steel mill.

Las Vegas Sands promised to build a hotel, shopping mall and events center on a corner of the 126-acre Bethlehem Steel site, which was shuttered in 1995. Anchoring it all would be the casino filled with 5,000 slot machines, where even the ceiling lights, made to look like molten iron rods, would evoke the site’s old industrial legacy.

But revenue from the slots parlor, which opened last May, has been disappointing. The hotel and events center are both 20% complete, and the planned shopping mall is 70% complete, all stalled because of the economic downturn.

That has put many here on edge. “The fear is we’ve put so much trust before to a big corporation, and here we’ve done the same thing again,” said Karen Dolan, a Bethlehem city council member.

In visits to the area over the years, most recently last fall, the casino really has an odd feel to it due to the rusting infrastructure all around it. Looking both impressive and sad at the same time, the former for its massive scale and the latter for the desolation of the last couple decades, you don’t know whether to be intrigued or put off.

(more…)

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Another Assault on Dow 11,000

It was touch and go there for the better part of the morning, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average has regained the high ground (i.e., above 11,000) and looks to be heading north again along with most other asset classes.

Before you know it, we’ll be talking about Dow 12,000, but, prior to that, it might be a good idea to have a look at this interactive graphic from USA Today to recall how we got here.

That late-2008 period was really something, including a couple of surges upward of more than a thousand points. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers, AIG, Washington Mutual (who’s in the news again today)  and the $700 billion TARP program.

Memories…

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The International Energy Agency said that world-wide energy demand will reach a new high this year as the global economic recovery continues. Of course, if growth slows, all bets are off. Reuters has the details in this report.

The Paris-based adviser to industrialized economies raised its forecast for world oil demand growth this year to 1.67 million barrels per day (bpd), up 100,000 bpd.

The agency said in its monthly Oil Market Report that world oil demand would reach an average of 86.60 million bpd this year, up from 84.93 million in 2009.

The previous record high for world oil demand was 86.5 million bpd in 2007 before the onset of the global financial crisis and economic slowdown.

“There are signs of oil demand picking up in North America and the Pacific, Asia and the Middle East although consumption in Europe still looks weak,” David Fyfe, head of the IEA’s Oil Industry and Markets Division, told Reuters.

But the extra demand will largely be met by production from outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

The group noted that the return of economic growth is fueling stronger demand for oil and, as anyone who has looked at these forecasts in detail knows all too well, the former (economic growth) is simply plugged into a formula to generate the latter (oil demand).

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The Financial Crisis – Hoocoodanode

Ken Posner, author of Stalking The Black Swan, talks to the folks at Tech Ticker about the parade of characters that appeared before the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission last week, most of whom claimed that it was impossible to see the market meltdown coming.

While Posner defends the idea that the ratings agencies deceived us all, that seems to be a far too convenient explanation for both Wall Street and Washington, yet one that has been quite popular in recent years.

All you had to do in 2004 or 2005 was to walk into a mortgage lender’s office and observe how loans were being made or spend a few moments reading one of the many housing bubble blogs that were popping up at the time and you would have quickly realized that there was something very wrong going on -  the only way a lot of people taking out home loans were going to pay that money back was if home prices kept going higher.

 
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