Punish the Savers – Part 63

Having just looked at some paltry renewal rates for CDs that matured this week, the 2.5 percent rate from a year ago, astonishingly, dwarfing what is being offered today, I know first hand what Floyd Norris is talking about in this commentary at the New York Times.

Aren’t low short-term interest rates wonderful?

If you are a bank, the answer is yes, particularly because the low rates are accompanied by somewhat higher longer-term rates.

If you are a saver, however, your view might be very different.

This month some interest rate spreads have reached record levels. The difference between what the Treasury pays on a one-year bill — less than half a percentage point — and what it pays on 10-year bonds — a little below 4 percent — expanded to the largest on record this month. In banking jargon, that is a very steep yield curve.

For banks, that is a license to make money with very little risk, particularly since they can get people to open savings accounts that pay close to nothing.

At some point in time, one way or another, this misguided notion that the banks must make a full recovery before the economy as a whole can recover will be discredited as system that benefits only the big banks and the elected officials they influence – then we can all move on to a system that isn’t so stacked against the little guy.

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From Here, Everything Looks Like Up

The Commerce Department reported(.pdf) that housing starts and permits for new construction both rose more than expected last month, however, similar to recent data on new home sales that just sunk to new all time lows, it doesn’t take much for the homebuilders’ leading indicators to show improvement from current levels.

Housing starts rose 1.6 percent in March to an annualized rate of 626,000 units and are now more than 20 percent higher than a year ago. Permits for new construction rose to their highest level in 17 months, up 7.5 percent to a rate of 685,000, a full 34 percent higher than a year ago when this data series was making a bottom.

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Just when you think that the statistics can’t get any worse for the graduating class of the Obama Administration’s Home Affordable Modification Program, they do. Otherwise known as HAMP, this program is apparently designed to convince people who really can’t afford their current debt load that they really can.

To that end, it is meeting with modest success.

How else can one explain that total debt-to-income ratios have risen even higher than February’s ridiculous burden of just under 60 percent as noted in this item four weeks ago?

Over the last four weeks, some 60,000 HAMP “trial” participants have had their loan modifications elevated to “permanent” status, meaning that they can now go confidently forth into the world thinking that their impossible debt load is somehow under control.

It’s not.

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Yves Smith of the popular Naked Capitalism blog talks with Robert Miller of the Telegraph about her recently released book that, apparently, doesn’t paint the world’s economists in a very flattering light – ECONned: How Unenlightened Self Interest Undermined Democracy and Corrupted Capitalism.

I’ve always thought of mainstream economists (i.e., not the Robert Shiller or Dean Baker types) as being the unwitting accomplices of Wall Street and Washington, oftentimes providing the intellectual cover for doing things that, as should be clear by now, not only aren’t  in the nation’s best long term interests but that are quite destructive.

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China and their Housing Bubble

More evidence that the initial stages of dialing back on easy money fueling asset bubbles only causes those  bubbles to get bigger in the short-term comes from China as, despite government efforts to cool a red-hot housing market, buyers keep bidding prices higher.

Bloomberg reports that measures taken so far by the Chinese government have been inadequate to stop property prices from rising sharply, efforts that stand in stark contrast to those of the U.S. government’s no money down programs, $8,000 tax credits, and freakishly low interest rates intended to revive the housing bubble here.

China’s cabinet raised minimum mortgage rates and down payment ratios for some home purchases, saying “more forceful” steps are needed to cool speculation after property prices rose at a record pace in March.

Down payments for second homes must be at least 50 percent, up from 40 percent, and interest rates can’t be lower than 110 percent of benchmark rates, the State Council said in a statement, citing decisions made during a meeting yesterday. Banks should also raise down payment ratios and rates for third homes “by a broad margin.”

Residential and commercial real-estate prices in 70 cities climbed 11.7 percent last month from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said yesterday. Haikou, the capital city on the southern island of Hainan, had the biggest gain, with a 53.9 percent jump in overall property prices.

Housing isn’t the only thing in China that is on an upward trajectory as economic growth was sizzling hot in the first quarter, real GDP expanding at an annualized rate of 11 percent.

Clearly, the Chinese are now getting much too much of a good thing – eight percent GDP growth and rising home prices are one thing, but 11 or 12 percent economic growth and a housing bubble are quite another and, at this rate, we’ll soon see a repeat of early-2008 when consumer prices began to rise sharply spurring protests and general unrest.

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