REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

Back in a Few…

We’re off to Glacier National Park for a couple days. We’ve never been there before, but only because it’s halfway between Yellowstone and Banff and, if we were going to drive more than a thousand miles, we had a hard time rationalizing not going to the other parks and visiting Glacier instead. Since it’s only a five hour drive now, we’re going to go have a look.

That’s Hidden Lake above, located just a few miles south of the Going to the Sun Road where, just a week ago, they were still plowing snow. The weather has warmed up quite a bit and everything’s open now – look for something new here sometime on Thursday.







Fed “Monster” Money Printing on Tap?

Ambrose Evans Pritchard writes in the Telegraph about what might be coming from the Federal Reserve, hearkening back to the days when Ben Bernanke was fresh out of academia, set to apply all that he had learned about the real world after having just entered it.

As recovery starts to stall in the US and Europe with echoes of mid-1931, bond experts are once again dusting off a speech by Ben Bernanke given eight years ago as a freshman governor at the Federal Reserve.

Entitled “Deflation: Making Sure It Doesn’t Happen Here”, it is a warfare manual for defeating economic slumps by use of extreme monetary stimulus once interest rates have dropped to zero, and implicitly once governments have spent themselves to near bankruptcy.

The speech is best known for its irreverent one-liner: “The US government has a technology, called a printing press, that allows it to produce as many US dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost.”

Andrew Roberts, credit chief at RBS, is advising clients to read the Bernanke text very closely because the Fed is soon going to have to the pull the lever on “monster” quantitative easing (QE)”.”We cannot stress enough how strongly we believe that a cliff-edge may be around the corner, for the global banking system (particularly in Europe) and for the global economy. Think the unthinkable,” he said in a note to investors.

On a related note, if you haven’t already seen this item at Zero Hedge, it’s well worth a look and will probably give you a good chuckle:

The Fed Has Lost It; Publishes Essay Bashing Bloggers, Tells General Public To Broadly Ignore Those Without An Econ PhD

President Obama on Deficit Reduction

In light of the the failed attempt by U.S. officials at the G20 gathering to coerce their European counterparts to try to spend their way out of the current economic malaise, these comments by President Obama on future budget moves are rather interesting.

Given the mood of the public and that elections are now only four months away, you have to wonder why this subject isn’t discussed more by the party in power. It’s not like, between now and November, anyone’s actually going to do anything about how fast that national debt clock is spinning ’round, but talking about it might improve their chances at the polls.

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To Double-Dip or Not to Double-Dip?

The really bad thing about predicting recessions is that it takes the Business Cycle Dating Committee over at the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) many, many months (if not years) to make that final determination – you won’t know whether your guess was good or bad until long after it has lost its relevancy. The Great Recession is widely believed to have ended about a year ago, but that may not be made official for quite some time – it took almost two years after the 2001 recession ended for the NBER to say it was so.

Of course, that doesn’t stop people from speculating about whether the U.S. economy is headed north or south and, based on this new poll at CNBC, it appears to be the latter.

Of course, just because people think we’ll have a recession, doesn’t mean we will, though, with the deficit-cutting mania sweeping the globe, the odds have surely increased recently.

If I had to guess, I’d say that we’ll have a big slowdown in growth (but no recession) that will spawn massive money printing from the Fed and we’ll create some new version of a Frankenstein economy (remember that phrase from about 2003 as the housing bubble was starting to expand rapidly?) replete with new and even more dangerous asset bubbles.

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An Uncooperative U.S. Economy

With the recent raft of dismal reports on the nation’s housing market, the other non-participant in the economic recovery – the labor market – will get a reality check on Friday when the Labor Department releases its monthly jobs report.

From the Tom Toles archive and blog at the Washington Post

Estimates for the change in June payrolls are for losses of more than 100,000, due mostly to Census 2010 workers having picked up their last paycheck. The big question is whether the private sector added or subtracted from the workforce and, based on weekly jobless claims that remain at levels associated with job losses, not job gains, the outlook is not good.

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