Dow 200+ Point Up/Down Days

Let’s see, we’re only eight trading days into June and we’ve already had three 200+ point moves for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, this coming after the most volatile month of trading in May since last March, just as markets were hitting bottom.

In the data above going back almost two-and-a-half years, the Dow was up 200 or more points on 52 days and down 200 or more points on 73 days. For those still long U.S. equities, my guess is that stocks are a lot like the game of golf – you remember the far less common really good days (or golf shots) much more than you remember the more frequent bad ones and, over long stretches of time, most people see little or no overall improvement.

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What To Tell the President

Don’t get me wrong, Robert Reich says and writes a lot of things that make a lot of sense to me and, maybe living thousands of miles away from the nation’s capital it’s impossible to fully appreciate how difficult the political season is making things, but, to me, this characterization of the black and white choice about what economic advisors should be telling the President about more stimulus doesn’t really seem to add to the discussion.

A) Tell the president the economy will either go into a “double-dip” recession or, at best, suffer anemic growth over the next five years — creating enormous pain and suffering for millions of Americans, and imperiling his reelection — unless he immediately champions a $300 billion jobs bill, including zero-interest loans to states and locales to prevent them from having to raise taxes and cut services, public-service jobs (cleaning up the Gulf), and a one-year payroll tax holiday on the first $100,000 of income. To sell this, he’ll need to explain to the American people why larger short-term deficits are necessary now, in order to get jobs back and the economy growing again so that long-term structural deficits (read: health care and Medicare, mostly) can be tackled.

B) Tell the president you understand the political pressures for deficit reduction are growing, and Republicans are making headway fooling the public into believing that this terrible recovery is due to to excessive government deficits. So so it’s perfectly fine for the president to bend to those political pressures. Cut the budgets of most federal agencies by 5 percent, enforce “pay-go” rules that don’t allow bigger deficits, build up expectations for the report of his “deficit commission” on December, and tell the American public that we now have to move toward fiscal austerity.

If you choose B, you shouldn’t be advising the President.

How about a third choice? One that acknowledges the failures of contemporary economic theory and monetary policy. One that posits an entire nation that buys things it doesn’t need with money that it doesn’t have is not a sustainable system and that the transformation to something that is sustainable is going to be more painful the longer it is put off. Make sure people aren’t starving in the street, but don’t try to prop up a system that can not be saved.

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Steve Wynn is NOT Leaving Las Vegas

I don’t know how long ago this was taped (hat tip BN) but it doesn’t really matter as Steve Wynn’s ire about government spending and support for the housing market are just as applicable today as they were a week ago or a month ago.

Wynn thinks that the communist Chinese government is far more predictable and much easier to work with than the U.S. government and they plan to move half their headquarters to Macau, China as they see a brighter future there.

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More on Bernanke and the Gold Price

This highly unsatisfying report at Bloomberg adds some mainstream media perspective to Fed chief Ben Bernanke’s gold price commentary yesterday that came in response to a question from Rep. Paul Ryan during House Budget Committee testimony as detailed here.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said gold prices, which surged to a record yesterday, are sending a different signal on inflation than raw materials.

“Other commodity prices have fallen recently quite severely, including oil prices and food prices,” Bernanke said today in response to a question during testimony to a House Budget Committee hearing. “So gold is out there doing something different from the rest of the commodity group.”

“Bernanke is dispelling the argument that people are out there buying gold because of the threat of inflation,” said Matt Zeman, a metals trader at LaSalle Futures Group in Chicago. “Deflation is now more of a threat.”

“There is a great deal of uncertainty and anxiety in the financial markets right now,” Bernanke said. “Some people believe that holding gold will be a hedge against the fact that they view many other investments being risky and hard to predict at this point.”

Gold has outperformed stocks, bonds and other commodities this year.

“When there’s nowhere else to turn, people turn to gold,” Zeman said.

It’s a real mystery, that rising gold price – a collective “I Dunno” from the central bank and the mainstream financial media. In asking his question, Rep. Ryan went to where neither of these groups apparently felt comfortable, noting, “gold hit an all-time high yesterday which I think most people would view as a vote of no confidence against fiat currencies”.

Taleb: Debt Spreading Like Cancer

Black Swan author Nassim Taleb was on CNBC to talk about the large and growing U.S. debt that he thinks is making the economy and financial system increasingly “fragile”. He makes a good point about whether you can believe any economic forecast coming from Fed chief Ben Bernanke after his failure to see what was coming just a couple of years ago.

There’s more in this related CNBC report in which Taleb says the world needs to prepare itself for austerity and slash debt, “I think it’s unavoidable. It’s the only solution we have. We have no other solution but to slash debt. Unfortunately you don’t slash debt by having parties, you slash debt by tightening your belt.”

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