As a result of sampling a wide variety of TV shows on all the different networks – MSNBC, Fox News, and everything in between (is there anything in between?) – my DVR often times is set to MSNBC when it gets turned on at around 9PM on Friday night and, invariably, it’s something of a shock to the system when the images appear and the sound comes on.

Why is there always a show about prison, a retrospective about some serial killer, an expose about what dastardly things an extremely disturbed individual did to his family, or something of this nature on at this time?

It’s not like this has happened just once or twice.

It’s clear that, for whatever reason, the honchos at MSNBC have made a conscious decision that America wants Keith Olbermann and Rachel Maddow on Monday through Thursday night but, come Friday night, prison rape and any kind of incest seem to fill the bill.

What’s up with that?







Dowdy Doomsters on PBS

From PBS Newshour the other day, Nouriel Roubini and Nasim Taleb get together to compare notes on past, present, and future doom (spotted over at the Daily Bail).

If they’d have gotten Marc Faber, Peter Schiff, and Bob Prechter to join these two all in the same room, it’s likely the entire world would have imploded and condensed into a singularity around these five purveyors of gloom and doom.

If the price of gold were not soaring, baffling the likes of Fed Chief Ben Bernanke who seems to think it is just an ordinary commodity and a monetary relic, it might be a little more difficult to explain to economists like Paul Krugman why there is a big move toward austerity now sweeping the globe. But, it is, so it’s not.

Despite the best intentions of the dismal set that has cajoled governments into printing trillions of dollars in recent years in an ineffectual attempt to sustain that which is unsustainable, a lot of people are now more scared of a currency collapse or some other systemic breakdown of a failed system than they are of breadlines. Sadly, this reality seems beyond the grasp of some economists, the most recent example being this commentary where the author doesn’t even know why no one will explain it to them.

Press German officials to explain why they need to impose austerity on a depressed economy, and you get rationales that don’t add up. Point this out, and they come up with different rationales, which also don’t add up. Arguing with German deficit hawks feels more than a bit like arguing with U.S. Iraq hawks back in 2002: They know what they want to do, and every time you refute one argument, they just come up with another.

Here’s roughly how the typical conversation goes (this is based both on my own experience and that of other American economists):

German hawk: “We must cut deficits immediately, because we have to deal with the fiscal burden of an aging population.”

Ugly American: “But that doesn’t make sense. Even if you manage to save 80 billion euros — which you won’t, because the budget cuts will hurt your economy and reduce revenues — the interest payments on that much debt would be less than a tenth of a percent of your G.D.P. So the austerity you’re pursuing will threaten economic recovery while doing next to nothing to improve your long-run budget position.”

Only those who possesses an unwavering faith in paper money and its central bank stewards fail to see that people are losing faith in the current system and figure that maybe we ought to dial back on the money printing and borrowing because the only real good it’s done is to enrich those bankers who survived. The system is failing and people are realizing this – that’s why they’re buying gold and for a politician to come out and say this would only make the situation worse in the near-term. It’s really not that complicated.

Gold Head-and-Shoulders Averted

I’m not much for technical analysis and was admonished not long ago for calling a “triangle” pattern a “wedge” (or something like that), but it’s nice to see that the forming head-and-shoulders top for the gold price has now been averted as shown below.

Now, that’s not to say that a new one won’t form or that one was even forming to begin with, but, I think I’ll sleep a little better tonight knowing that, if a big correction comes, it will likely start at a higher price.

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Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan is in the news this morning, showing his deficit-hawk stripes in this Wall Street Journal op-ed($) that is, perhaps, an attempt to compensate in some small way for his many past transgressions.

Only politically toxic cuts or rationing of medical care, a marked rise in the eligible age for health and retirement benefits, or significant inflation, can close the deficit. I rule out large tax increases that would sap economic growth (and the tax base) and accordingly achieve little added revenues.

With huge deficits currently having no evident effect on either inflation or long-term interest rates, the budget constraints of the past are missing. It is little comfort that the dollar is still the least worst of the major fiat currencies. But the inexorable rise in the price of gold indicates a large number of investors are seeking a safe haven beyond fiat currencies.

The United States, and most of the rest of the developed world, is in need of a tectonic shift in fiscal policy. Incremental change will not be adequate. In the past decade the U.S. has been unable to cut any federal spending programs of significance.

I believe the fears of budget contraction inducing a renewed decline of economic activity are misplaced. The current spending momentum is so pressing that it is highly unlikely that any politically feasible fiscal constraint will unleash new deflationary forces.

Our economy cannot afford a major mistake in underestimating the corrosive momentum of this fiscal crisis. Our policy focus must therefore err significantly on the side of restraint.

Left unsaid here is the recommended timing of the budget “restraint”, the question that seems to be causing a lot of left-leaning economists to get their panties all bunched up again in light of what looks to be a slowing economy. It’s not clear whether this piece will reverse any of what the Business Insider calls Alan Greenspan’s Slide Into Oblivion.

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Leaving Los Angeles

The Lakers won last night, but back-to-back titles are not likely to stop what looks to be an exodus from the area based on this fascinating interactive graphic at Forbes (hat tip EU).

You can select any of the preset cities in the lower left or click on individual counties on the map to see whether people were coming or going in 2008 based on IRS data. Seattle, Dallas, and Atlanta seem to be the most popular destinations and, to no one’s surprise, there are few (if any) black lines visible when selecting Detroit.

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