REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

As compared to a national debt of $13 trillion, Fed money printing of $1.7 trillion, annual Federal budget deficits of about $1.5 trillion, and bailout/stimulus programs of almost $1 trillion, the IRS is doing a bang-up job in handling the homebuyer tax credit claims, losing only a fraction of those amounts, as detailed in this report at MarketWatch today.

The Internal Revenue Service doled out more than $27 million in fraudulent claims for the home buyers’ tax credit on returns for 2008, including claims by prisoners serving life sentences and people who purchased their home before the credit was in effect, a Treasury Department report said Wednesday.

The IRS paid out $9.1 million to 1,295 people who were in jail at the time they said they bought a home, and 241 of those prisoners were serving life sentences, according to the report from the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration, which monitors the Internal Revenue Service. On average, that’s slightly more than $7,000 per prisoner.

Another $17.6 million went to 2,555 people who bought their homes before the tax credit became law — averaging out to about $6,890 per person.

In other fraudulent claims, the total cost of which the Treasury inspector general was not yet able to quantify, the same home was claimed by more than one taxpayer. About 10,280 people got a tax credit for a home that also was used by another taxpayer to claim the credit, according to the report.

Amazingly, the same address was reportedly claimed as a qualifying home purchase on 67 different tax returns. Even more amazingly, almost 100 IRS workers have filed fraudulent claims related to this very popular tax credit.

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Well, there’s a shot-in-the arm for the U.S. economic recovery – atta boy…

At the conclusion of today’s policy meeting, the Federal Reserve left short-term interest rates unchanged at the freakishly low level of 0.0 to 0.25 percent, but, they seem to have downgraded their outlook for the recovery from The Great Recession by simply saying it is “proceeding”.

In April, it was “economic activity has continued to strengthen”, but, two months later, that changed to “the economic recovery is proceeding”.

How about an adverb there?

The characterization of the labor market changed from “is beginning to improve” to “is improving gradually”, so, that could be viewed as a positive, but, I just can’t get over that first part – “the economic recovery is proceeding”.

I suppose that falls under the category of, “if you can’t say anything nice, don’t say anything at all”. The complete side-by-side comparison of the last two statements is shown below.

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New Home Sales Plunge to Record Low

The Commerce Department reported(.pdf) that new home sales plunged 33 percent to an all-time low in May following the expiration of the government’s homebuyer tax credit in April. If not for the massive downward revision to the April sales total, from an annual rate of 504,000 to 446,000, the monthly decline would have been more than 40 percent!

As it was it was bad enough, the May sales rate of 300,000 coming in well below the previous record low from January of 2009 – during the depths of the Great Recession – at 339,000 units. In population-adjusted terms, the May new home sales total represents a decline of about 40 percent from the pre-2008 low of 400,000 seen in January of 1991. It’s hard to believe that, before the housing boom went bust, homebuilders were selling well over a million new homes a year.

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Here’s another sign of the times. USA Today reports that lower priced motels are trying to save themselves (and, in some cases their customers) a little money by forgoing some or all of the regular housekeeping during multiple night stays.

More hotels are cutting back on housekeeping services. With their business sharply reduced, hotels are looking to save money by urging customers to forgo daily changing of linens, towels and toiletries.

The trend isn’t new, but the urgency is spreading to more chains as the industry battles a historic downturn in travel. Hotels market their new housekeeping approach as a “green” effort, and some analysts and travelers say the spin has merit.

Best Western asks guests to specify their choice of housekeeping: no service, replace towels/empty trash/quick vacuum, or full clean. Guests can check their choice and specify the cleaning hour on a card hung on the door knob. Since the program began late last year, about 40% of guests chose no or limited cleaning, says Ron Pohl of Best Western.

Some hotels give financial incentives. The Marmara Manhattan Hotel in New York offers a $20-a-night discount to customers who go without housekeeping for three days. “The green rate” applies only to those who book at least three nights on its reservation system.”

What about Motel 6? I remember staying there one time years ago and couldn’t believe how much they could skimp on basically everything to cut costs.

More recently, we stayed at a Microtel for $59 one night last fall and were pleasantly surprised. As always, consult Tripadvisor before booking a room in an unknown place or you might wind up at the Holiday Inn in Hays, Kansas like we once did.

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Lower Your Home Price Expectations

It is not at all clear why economists continue to be asked about the future because, after the last few years, they’ve proven their prognostication skills are quite poor, the latest example being an only slightly less rosy view of the nation’s housing market, one that is being steadily revised lower as more data from the real world trickles in.

From Macromarkets latest monthly Home Price Expectations Survey come more downward revisions to a chart that, to a non-economist,  still looks to be far too optimistic.

There is a related report in the free section of the Wall Street Journal, the key take-away being that “56% of the 106 economists and other analysts surveyed expect home prices to decline this year. That is up from 40% a month ago”. Of course, after that, steady increases are expected – up 1.3 percent in 2011, up 2.7 percent in 2012, up 3.5 percent in 2013, and up 3.8 percent in 2014 for a cumulative gain of 10.5 percent.

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Wednesday Morning Links

MUST READS
Europe spurns Obama’s plea for more spending – Fortune
Beijing Keeps a Tight Rein on Currency’s Rise – Bloomberg
Britain becomes latest to slash budget, freeze salaries – Washington Post
Merkel: Spending Cuts to Boost Economy, Not Put Brake on Growth – Bloomberg
Lawmakers agree to broad terms for consumer protection agency – McClatchy
Volcker Rule Under Attack as Lawmakers Seek Loophole – Bloomberg
Soros says Germany could cause euro collapse – Reuters
FDIC fund’s woes deepen – Fortune
The Runaway General – Rolling Stone

MARKETS/INVESTING
Oil drops below $78 after US crude supplies jump – AP
Gold rises towards $1,240/oz as equities decline – Reuters
S&P 500’s Retreat After 50% Recovery Signals Caution to Analysts – Bloomberg
BMO: Public debt, monetization fear to sustain record gold trading – Mineweb
Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over – iTulip
Outrunning the bear – MarketWatch

MISCELLANY
Double Dip Debate Escalates – The Big Picture
Housing Market Threatens U.S. Recovery as Slide Resumes – Bloomberg
Bank of England’s Sentance makes first call for rate hike – MarketWatch
Bravo Chancellor Osborne: you have saved Britain in the nick of time – Telegraph
China Banks’ Asset Deterioration `Near Certainty’ Due to Risk, Fitch Says – Bloomberg
Existing Homes: Months of Supply and House Prices – Calculated Risk
Housing Bubble II, Courtesy Of The Government, Was A Waste Of Money – Housing Doom
What Does the Federal Reserve Think that It Is Doing Right Now? – DeLong
Geithner Yet Again Misrepresents TARP “Performance” – Naked Capitalism
Fed on sideline, waiting for recovery to firm – Reuters

 
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