REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

Winners and Losers in Toronto

It looks like there were about an equal number of winners and losers at this weekend’s gathering of G20 leaders in Toronto if you include what went on outside the meeting rooms. The Chinese were successful in diverting attention from their currency peg by announcing new “flexibility” for the yuan a week ago but President Obama extended his recent cold streak as uber-Keynesian calls for more deficit spending fell on deaf ears.

The officer whose patrol car was torched in the street as shown above will certainly go down as a loser this weekend, as will the proud owners of newly ventilated store fronts, courtesy of an angry mob throwing whatever they could get their hands on through the glass.

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Having seen New York real estate mogul and TV star Donald Trump’s golf swing a few times on various episodes of The Apprentice, it seemed clear that the reality of a low single digit index was something confined to the space between his ears rather than a golf course. But, according to this WSJ story by John Paul Newport, that’s apparently not the case.

I had challenged Mr. Trump to this match—straight up, since we are both listed as four handicaps—as a way to get a read on his golf bona fides. At the course, we agreed to a friendly wager. If Mr. Trump won, he would receive a copy of the stippled “hedcut” image The Wall Street Journal often uses to illustrate stories about him, signed by the artist. If I won, Mr. Trump would record a voice-mail greeting for my 15-year-old daughter’s cellphone, mentioning that her father had beaten him at golf.

He agreed to the round—”You won’t find other rich golf guys doing this, because they don’t want to show off their lousy golf games,” he said—and offered any of his courses as the venue.

Mr. Trump pegged his first drive down the middle of the fairway, 240 yards. “Not bad for an old guy, right?” he said. At 64, he was giving me eight years. His swing is all hips—hips in the waggle, hips in the windup, hips in the follow-through. Roughly a third of his full swings in our match ended with a walk-through; that is, he put so much body into the effort that he had to step around with his back foot to keep from toppling forward. But this is something even Arnold Palmer and Gary Player do on occasion, and gets the job done. He foozled five or six shots, including his approach on No. 1 into a greenside swamp, but otherwise placed his drives in the fairways and his approaches on the greens with dismaying accuracy.

If you play golf and have seen this “all hips” swing, you’ll get a real kick out of this article, though I can’t quite figure out why anyone would need their own personal mustard bottle.

Bove: Wall Street Wins, Main Street Loses

Bank analyst Dick Bove of Rochdale Securities doesn’t think Wall Street will have any trouble “innovating around” the financial market reforms that the House and Senate agreed to earlier today and that Main Street will again end up the loser because, however much money the reforms cost the banks, they can get that money back by raising fees.

Bove says the reforms “will not stop any financial crisis in the future … So, this is a populist surge of activity to say ‘hey, we’re going to get those bad guys on Wall Street who did all those bad things to you’. But, in terms of who get’s hurt, it is definitely not the banking industry, it is definitely the U.S. economy, the U.S. consumer…”

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Fed Balance Sheet to Rise to $5 Trillion?

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is almost shrill in his assessment of the choices now being faced by Fed Chief Ben Bernanke – a few vocal Fed hawks and a deficit-wary Congress on one side and, on the other, a slowing economy where the de-flation peril grows everyday.

Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke is waging an epochal battle behind the scenes for control of US monetary policy, struggling to overcome resistance from regional Fed hawks for further possible stimulus to prevent a deflationary spiral.

Key members of the five-man Board are quietly mulling a fresh burst of asset purchases, if necessary by pushing the Fed’s balance sheet from $2.4 trillion (£1.6 trillion) to uncharted levels of $5 trillion. But they are certain to face intense scepticism from regional hardliners. The dispute has echoes of the early 1930s when the Chicago Fed stymied rescue efforts.

“We’re heading towards a double-dip recession,” said Chris Whalen, a former Fed official and now head of Institutional Risk Analystics. “The party is over from fiscal support. These hard-money men are fighting the last war: they don’t recognise that money velocity has slowed and we are going into deflation. The only default option left is to crank up the printing presses again.”

Mr Bernanke has fought off calls from FOMC hawks for moves to drain stimulus by selling some of the Fed’s $1.75 trillion of Treasuries, mortgage securities and agency bonds bought during the crisis. But there is little chance that he can secure their backing for further purchases at this point. “He just has to wait until everybody can see the economy is nearing the abyss,” said one Fed watcher.

Ambrose ends with Societe Generale uber-bear Albert Edward’s take on the current situation that the world is collectively “walking on deflationary quicksand”.

Oh Dear! We’re heading toward another abyss!

In the last of three readings for U.S. economic activity during the first quarter, the Commerce Department reported that growth was revised downward, from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.0 percent to 2.7 percent. This follows an impressive expansion at the rate of 5.6 percent during the fourth quarter of last year following the end of The Great Recession, now widely believed to have occurred sometime last summer.

The change for the first quarter was a result of downward revisions to personal consumption and net exports that more than offset upward revisions to inventory, what has been the primary driver for the U.S. economy since last summer as shown below.

(more…)

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Punish the Strategic Defaulters!

It’s not hard to understand the motivation behind Fannie Mae’s announcement that they intend to punish  homeowners who walk away from their underwater properties – they got out the stick since the carrot didn’t seem to be working – but they clearly haven’t thought this all the way through as detailed in this report by David Streitfeld in the New York Times.

Fannie Mae’s decision to begin punishing people who walk away from their unpaid mortgages could prove difficult to sell to the public and might be impossible to execute, housing and lending experts said Thursday.

The big mortgage financing company, which owns or guarantees millions of mortgages, announced on Wednesday that it would sue homeowners who have the capacity to pay but default anyway. It also said it would prevent these strategic defaulters from getting a new Fannie Mae-backed loan for seven years, which could potentially shut millions of buyers out of the market.

But it was unclear, the experts said, why Fannie Mae was threatening delinquent owners and what it hoped to achieve. The new direction seems to run counter to the Obama administration’s efforts to reinvigorate the housing market. And there were basic questions about how Fannie would be able to distinguish between those homeowners who defaulted intentionally and the unfortunate ones who had no choice.

“How are they going to do this, and for what result?” asked Grant Stern, president of the Morningside Mortgage on Bay Harbor, Fla. “So they can find the people who have a little money left after their house crashed and take it away from them?”

Fannie Mae will soon reveal more about how they plan to collect the data needed to make the determination about using their big, new stick and may even say how many lawyers they expect to hire.  As noted here yesterday, in my view, this could be the final nail in the coffin for the late, great U.S. “ownership society”. Colorado mortgage banker Lou Barnes puts it a little differently, concluding, “Fannie wants to lock people up in a jail of negative net worth for much of the rest of their lives. They’re bringing back the debtor’s prison.”

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