REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

Lower Your Home Price Expectations

It is not at all clear why economists continue to be asked about the future because, after the last few years, they’ve proven their prognostication skills are quite poor, the latest example being an only slightly less rosy view of the nation’s housing market, one that is being steadily revised lower as more data from the real world trickles in.

From Macromarkets latest monthly Home Price Expectations Survey come more downward revisions to a chart that, to a non-economist,  still looks to be far too optimistic.

There is a related report in the free section of the Wall Street Journal, the key take-away being that “56% of the 106 economists and other analysts surveyed expect home prices to decline this year. That is up from 40% a month ago”. Of course, after that, steady increases are expected – up 1.3 percent in 2011, up 2.7 percent in 2012, up 3.5 percent in 2013, and up 3.8 percent in 2014 for a cumulative gain of 10.5 percent.

Tagged with:  






Wednesday Morning Links

MUST READS
Europe spurns Obama’s plea for more spending – Fortune
Beijing Keeps a Tight Rein on Currency’s Rise – Bloomberg
Britain becomes latest to slash budget, freeze salaries – Washington Post
Merkel: Spending Cuts to Boost Economy, Not Put Brake on Growth – Bloomberg
Lawmakers agree to broad terms for consumer protection agency – McClatchy
Volcker Rule Under Attack as Lawmakers Seek Loophole – Bloomberg
Soros says Germany could cause euro collapse – Reuters
FDIC fund’s woes deepen – Fortune
The Runaway General – Rolling Stone

MARKETS/INVESTING
Oil drops below $78 after US crude supplies jump – AP
Gold rises towards $1,240/oz as equities decline – Reuters
S&P 500’s Retreat After 50% Recovery Signals Caution to Analysts – Bloomberg
BMO: Public debt, monetization fear to sustain record gold trading – Mineweb
Gold may decline 50% before the World Cup is over – iTulip
Outrunning the bear – MarketWatch

MISCELLANY
Double Dip Debate Escalates – The Big Picture
Housing Market Threatens U.S. Recovery as Slide Resumes – Bloomberg
Bank of England’s Sentance makes first call for rate hike – MarketWatch
Bravo Chancellor Osborne: you have saved Britain in the nick of time – Telegraph
China Banks’ Asset Deterioration `Near Certainty’ Due to Risk, Fitch Says – Bloomberg
Existing Homes: Months of Supply and House Prices – Calculated Risk
Housing Bubble II, Courtesy Of The Government, Was A Waste Of Money – Housing Doom
What Does the Federal Reserve Think that It Is Doing Right Now? – DeLong
Geithner Yet Again Misrepresents TARP “Performance” – Naked Capitalism
Fed on sideline, waiting for recovery to firm – Reuters

 

The euphoria that followed word from China over the weekend that they will allow the yuan to appreciate – a move that was no doubt timed to focus attention on the euro and take the heat off of their currency issues at the upcoming G-20 meeting – sure has faded fast.

From the Scott Stantis archive at the Chicago Tribune.

Tagged with:  

Inside the Obama Economic Team

Reuters has a report out on what it’s like inside the White House when the economics wizards meet to try to make sense of the U.S. economy. As might be expected, Larry Summers, Director of the White House’s National Economic Council, is the focal point.

Debates within Obama’s economic team can approach a World Wrestling Federation smackdown. In stories leaked to the press, Summers has been accused of shutting key people out of meetings, including Paul Volcker, Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Christina Romer and CEA member Austan Goolsbee.

In his book, “The Promise: President Obama, Year One,” Jonathan Alter describes an especially heated exchange between Summers and Romer. “Don’t you threaten me!” Summers blurted at Romer, who shot back: “Don’t you bully me!”

Such reports have helped to fuel speculation about Summers’ clout within the administration. His past foibles and successes have made him a particularly intriguing figure in Washington’s favorite parlor game of guessing who’s up and who’s down.

“The conventional wisdom seems to be that Summers’ power has faded somewhat as Geithner has burnished his image and Volcker has taken on more prominence,” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Pierpont Securities. “He has generally been much lower profile in 2010 than in 2009.”

But that view fails to take into account the breadth of Summers’ portfolio within the White House, not to mention the face time he has with Obama.

There’s a lot more detail about Summers’ background and his current role in the Obama administration – this could have been one of those stories sitting on the shelf, rushed to print today after it was announced that Budget Director Peter Orzag is leaving.

It’s hard for a lot of people to imagine that the guy who was on the cover of Time Magazine with Alan Greenspan and Robert Rubin in 1999 as the “Committee to Save the World” still has a prominent role in making policy given what has happened over the last few years.

Tagged with:  

Existing Home Sales Drop?

Much to the surprise of those who thought the U.S. housing market would enjoy another buying surge during the final two months of the homebuyer tax credit, the National Association of Realtors reported that home sales fell last month and remain far below the levels reached late last year when the first round of tax credits expired.

Of course, seasonal adjustments play a big role in the November-May comparison shown above since, normally, late fall sees the beginning of a dramatic slowdown in buying activity and the raw data is typically adjusted upward. But, nevertheless, the comparison is still quite striking and one can only imagine where the sales totals will go in July when no government money gets handed out with each home purchase.

(more…)

Tagged with:  

The Trans-Atlantic Spending Spat

The age of British “austerity” begins today a new budget from Chancellor George Osbourne and the question of how much governments should borrow and spend will no doubt be the subject of much discussion at this weeks’ G-20 gathering in Tornonto. This Paul Kugrman interview as recounted in Germany’s Spiegel Online is not likely to grease the wheels:

In his comments to Handelsblatt, Krugman was also critical of the European Central Bank (ECB) and of ongoing speculation that Axel Weber, president of the German central bank, will take over from ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet when his eight-year term expires in October 2011. Weber, Krugman said, represents a risk to the European common currency.

“The danger that we could see a domino effect from Greece via Spain and Portugal to Italy is much greater should the ECB end up with such a conservative president (as Weber),” Krugman said. He criticized Weber for being overly focused on inflationary dangers and not worried enough about an extended economic stagnation.

The American economist blasted the European Union for its ongoing attempts to ratchet up the severity of the Stability and Growth Pact in response to ballooning national debt in several countries belonging to the European common currency area.

“The proposals are coming from some fantasy world,” Krugman said. “They are going in the wrong direction. A stricter Stability Pact maybe would have saved Greece from almost going bankrupt. But Spain fulfilled all of the pact’s criteria and was a fiscal policy star. The changes are aimed at solving a pseudo problem without going after the real roots of the crisis.”

That’s just what the world needs – a German in charge of the European Central Bank…

Tagged with:  
Page 5 of 22« First...345671020...Last »
© 2010-2011 The Mess That Greenspan Made