REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

Morgan Stanley’s former Asia chief Stephen Roach stopped by to talk to the Kelly Evans of the Wall Street Journal the other day, on his way to a new teaching stint at Yale.

Roach puts the odds of a double-dip recession at 40 percent and says he wouldn’t have voted for Ben Bernanke as Fed chairman since he’s always condoned asset bubbles. From excerpts posted at the WSJ Econ blog, he comments on our last two Fed chairman: “Alan Greenspan kept the policy rate too low for too long, set us up for credit and property bubbles that led to an enormous crisis, [and] I think Ben Bernanke is just rerunning the Greenspan movie of seven or eight years ago.” You’ll read much the same thing from Roach on this very first TMTGM post from about five-and-a-half years ago – The Test.

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It is not at all clear whether the 7,000+ respondents to this CNBC poll are more bullish or bearish on the stock market than the investing public in general. If they do represent the mood of the masses, then it looks like there is more work to be done to the downside this year and some assistance may be provided by the unfavorable months of September and October that now loom large for anyone with a sizable stake in equities.

Then again, retail investors have been mostly non-factors in the stock market over the last couple years, since being seduced by bond funds after the financial crisis hit. For anyone wondering about the direction of stocks, what would surely be more helpful is if they restricted this poll to hedge fund managers and HFT computer algorithms.

(Interestingly, when this item was first spotted a couple hours ago at CNBC, the results were closer to 34%/66%, so, confidence appears to be improving rather quickly.)

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The Rich Walk Away Too

Today’s must-read housing story comes from David Streitfeld of the New York Times where details are provided on the remarkable surge in “jingle-mail” from rich folks.

No need for tears, but the well-off are losing their master suites and saying goodbye to their wine cellars.The housing bust that began among the working class in remote subdivisions and quickly progressed to the suburban middle class is striking the upper class in privileged enclaves like this one in Silicon Valley.

Whether it is their residence, a second home or a house bought as an investment, the rich have stopped paying the mortgage at a rate that greatly exceeds the rest of the population.

More than one in seven homeowners with loans in excess of a million dollars are seriously delinquent, according to data compiled for The New York Times by the real estate analytics firm CoreLogic.

By contrast, homeowners with less lavish housing are much more likely to keep writing checks to their lender. About one in 12 mortgages below the million-dollar mark is delinquent.

This seems like one of those data points that just can’t be right. More than 15 percent  of borrowers whose home loans total a million dollars or more are delinquent?

One reason why this could be right, but at the same time highly misleading, is that million dollar homes don’t necessarily carry million dollar mortgages. If memory serves, the proportion of homes owned outright is much higher at this level than, say, in the $200K range. Rich folks often buy their multi-million dollar homes with cash.

(more…)

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Jake over at EconomPicData illustrates the remarkable decline in outstanding consumer credit over the last few years, the latest evidence coming in yesterday’s $9.1 billion decline in May and the downward revision in April from +$1 billion to -$14.9 billion.

Despite recent assertions in the financial media that Americans are going back to their spendthrift ways and will support U.S. economic growth in the future as they’ve done in the past – by spending money they don’t have – the consumer is clearly retrenching.

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Friday Morning Links

MUST READS
U.S. gives China pass on currency – Reuters
China buys Japanese bonds at record pace – China Daily
Korea Raises Rates as Asia Leads Recovery; Won Gains – Bloomberg
IMF issues broad call for U.S. financial prudence – Washington Post
Is now the time to experiment with negative interest rates? – FT
Debt is still the problem and deflation is the painful solution – TPC
World economic recovery driven by global imbalances – Washington Post
Double dip fears sends investors to cash: EPFR – Reuters
All in on Deflation Bet? – Barron’s

MARKETS/INVESTING
Oil rises to $76 amid optimism on global economy – AP
Gold holds near $1,200, up from six-week low – Reuters
Repeat of 2008 Selloff on Horizon: Hedge Fund Director – CNBC
Death cross over last two decades has not been that bad an omen – MarketWatch
Commercial bank ‘gold swap’ intrigue continues – FT AlphaVille
BIS gold swaps – Bulls and Bears fight out the implications – Mineweb
Computerized stock trading leaves investors vulnerable – USA Today

ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/FED
Credit crunch alive and well – CNN/Money
Keynes & Co. have lost the stimulus argument – DeLong, The Week
China banks’ off-books loans 800-900 bn yuan-source – Reuters
Catastrophe averted, but crisis continues: Trichet – MarketWatch
Liar Loans’ Make a Comeback – ABC News
Biggest Defaulters on Mortgages Are the Rich – NY Times
What is the Threshold For More Fed Action? – Tim Duy’s Fed Watch
Fed to GSEs – Put it on the Balance Sheet! – Bruce Krasting

 
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