REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

Since my “Predictions for 2010″ were exactly 13 days late in January, it seems only fitting that the mid-year review should occur with the same lag, and that’s the subject of this quick look back to what was going through my head six months ago.

As is clear to see below, there is great danger in making predictions that are too specific – they’re much more likely to be wrong. Anyway, off we go…

1. Maybe the Last Really Bad Year for Housing

It’s hard to understand how anyone can really think that the nation’s housing market managed to “stabilize” in 2009 when prices continued to decline on a year-over-year basis even after government support to this sector on a scale never before seen by Mankind.

Homebuyer tax credits, central bank purchases of mortgage-backed-securities, a sharp increase in FHA lending, and a host of other factors have merely “kicked the can down the road” and that road will be “uphill” in 2010. Mounting foreclosures, loan resets, and an increasing number of homeowners who simply “walk away” from underwater mortgages will cause a relapse in housing this year and month-to-month gains will turn back to losses.

As measured by the 20-city S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index for October 2010 (to be released in late-December), home values will decline by another 8 percent. The U.S. government will extend the homebuyer tax credit again in the summer and late-2010 will be a good time to start looking to buy property in most parts of the country.

The homebuyer tax credits have come and gone and home sales appear to be plunging off a cliff with price declines looking like they’ll accelerate over the summer.

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Another online poll, this one at The Huffington Post, confirms that a lot of people have exited the stock market lately. This comes after yesterday’s widely read story in the Wall Street Journal that detailed how small investors have lost faith, many of them for good.

HuffPo gives gloomster-in-chief Bob Prechter even more ink after the New York Times and Wall Street Journal both featured his Dow 1,000 call in recent weeks.

I just find it very difficult to believe that, having zero to show for their effort over the last decade, there are any buy-and-hold investors that have stuck with U.S. stocks.

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As Moody’s, Standard and Poor’s, and Fitch go about their business of assessing the credit risk of corporations, financial instruments, and sovereign nations around the world after having done such a fine job leading up to the global crisis a few years ago, another ratings agency is making headlines today – China’s Dagong Global Credit Rating Co. – and they have a slightly different view of things as detailed in this report in the Telegraph.

Chinese rating agency strips Western nations of AAA status

China’s leading credit rating agency has stripped America, Britain, Germany and France of their AAA ratings, accusing Anglo-Saxon competitors of ideological bias in favour of the West.

Dagong Global Credit Rating Co used its first foray into sovereign debt to paint a revolutionary picture of creditworthiness around the world, giving much greater weight to “wealth creating capacity” and foreign reserves than Fitch, Standard & Poor’s, or Moody’s.

The US falls to AA, while Britain and France slither down to AA-. Belgium, Spain, Italy are ranked at A- along with Malaysia.

Meanwhile, China rises to AA+ with Germany, the Netherlands and Canada, reflecting its €2.4 trillion (£2 trillion) reserves and a blistering growth rate of 8pc to 10pc a year.

Other losers were Japan and South Korea, while top AAA ratings were given to Australia, New Zealand, Norway, Denmark, Luxembourg, Switzerland, and Singapore.

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Cramer is Bullish!

You only have to watch about the first minute of this clip from Jim Cramer’s Mad Money program yesterday to realize what a field day future historians will have when writing about the current period. They’ll look back and wonder how capital markets and for-profit media were allowed to become so intertwined, helping to run the entire financial system into the ground again and again until major reforms were finally enacted.

And no, not the kind of reforms that Cramer talks about here in the soon-to-be-passed financial regulation bill, part of the five-out-of-six keys to his renewed bullish view of the stock market where U.S. unemployment was the only condition not yet met. Tick marks have been applied to stable Spanish banks and a stable euro, a plugged oil leak, and a soft landing in China as detailed here. This investing stuff is really quite simple…

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Tuesday Morning Links

MUST READS
China’s frothy property market falters in June – BBC
Senate poised to pass historic financial reform – McClatchy
Alcoa Profit Tops Estimates as Aluminum Prices Rise – Bloomberg
Chinese rating agency strips Western nations of AAA status – Telegraph
China Stocks Fall Most in Two Weeks as Loan Curbs Maintained – Bloomberg
Axelrod: ‘No Great Appetite’ For More Aid To States – HuffPo
Inside the Dire Financial State of the States – Time
Greek T-Bill Sale Oversubscribed, Yields Up – CNBC
Homeowners vs. Home-Loan Buyers – WSJ

MARKETS/INVESTING
Oil climbs back above $75 – AP
Gold rises above $1,200 after Portugal downgrade – Reuters
Masking debt mars earnings season, analysts don’t help – MarketWatch
Stock market rally could have legs – StockHouse
Gold edges up on physical buying – Commodity Online
A Man Lived by the Side of the Road.. – Saut, Raymond James
Why Portugal Downgrade Didn’t Slam Stocks – CNBC

ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/FED
No extension of jobless benefits in sight – Washington Post
IMF chief sees little risk of double-dip recession – CNBC
Double-Dippers Get Wet Ignoring Yield Curve – Baum, Bloomberg
Moody’s Cuts Portugal’s Credit Rating – NY Times
Concern of Stress Test Failures on the Rise – Spiegel Online
BofA Sued: Accused Of Lying About Lost Paperwork – HuffPo
My short sale success story – The Real Deal
Fed chief to banks: Find a way to lend to small business – McClatchy
Fed Has No Plans for Further Monetary Easing, Officials Say – Bloomberg

 
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