REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke single-handedly squashed this week’s stock market rally by simply talking about the economy today as part of his semi-annual report on monetary policy before the  Senate Banking Committee beginning at 2 PM EST.

It’s too bad no one thought to superimpose a live stock market chart over a video of him reading his prepared remarks – the Dow falls more than 100 points by the time 2:10 PM rolls around with another 50 point drop coming in the hours that followed as traders digested the Fed chief’s uninspiring view of the U.S. economy.

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China Property Markets Teeter?

There’s been quite a bit of news lately about the Chinese real estate market now that government restrictions on buying property and getting financing for these purchases seems to be having more than a fleeting impact.

The lastest un-China-like report on prices comes from this story in Bloomberg.

Shanghai Average New Luxury Home Prices Fall 13%

Shanghai’s average new luxury home prices dropped 13 percent in July from April following expanded government restrictions on the property market, the Shanghai Securities News reported today, citing China Real Estate Information Corp.

The average price fell to 62,439 yuan ($9,212) per square meter in July from April, according to the newspaper.

In Shenzhen, average luxury home prices declined 6.3 percent to 40,370 yuan per square meter in June from April, the newspaper reported, citing the housing market consultant.

Another Bloomberg report details the effect on local governments where the land sale boom of recent years appears to have no obvious replacement as a source of government funding. Israel’s Financial Expert provided details of what he thinks is behind the boom, replete with videos of angry citizens and a run on one of the banks.

Steven Roach’s recent protestation that China does not have a housing bubble is looking a little shakier with each passing day and each new revelation about what’s been going on.

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The Big Question for Ben Bernanke

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke presents his semi-annual report on monetary policy to the Senate Banking Committee in just a couple of hours. Here are a few suggested questions from David Wessel of the Wall Street Journal.

The big question is, “Why isn’t the Fed doing more to help an economy in which inflation is lower than the Fed wants it to be and unemployment is much higher?”

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Pompous, Self-Important Squabbling

The Telegraph’s Jeremy Warner files this report on the escalating cat-fight between two of the world’s best known economists regarding the best cure for the world’s economic ills.

Not since Ken Rogoff’s famous attack on Joe Stiglitz has the dismal science of economics provoked such pompous, self-important, personalised squabbling. Professors Paul Krugman and Niall Ferguson, of course, have form; they’ve been at it on and off for nearly a year now over the efficacy of deficit spending in fighting the downturn, and today they return to the fray.

The occassion was another piece that Ferguson, an eminent economic historian, has penned for the Financial Times on the dangers of attempting to spend your way to economic recovery. Foolishly – or perhaps deliberately, for it is sometimes possible to imagine that the two have secretly agreed to slag each other off for the publicity – he mentions Krugman by name. “Those economists, like New York Times columnist Paul Krugman”, he writes, “who liken confidence to an imaginary “fairy” have failed to learn from decades of economic research on expectations. They also seem not to have noticed that the big academic winners of this crisis have been the proponents of behavioural finance, in which the ups and downs of human psychology are the key”.

Quick as flash, Krugman has risen to the bait. On his New York Times blog, he writes “Brad DeLong does the necessary on Niall Ferguson; no need for me to pile on”. But then he attempts to do precisely that, and with a ladle too. The detail of the argument need not bother us here.

Warner comes down on the side of Ferguson, taking the position that can be summed up as, “If the trillions of dollars already spent didn’t fix our problems, why should we think that trillions more dollars will?” going so far as to compare Krugman to Former Vice President Dick Cheney in the shared view that “deficits don’t matter”.

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It’s still just a trickle compared to the inflows that have been seen this year, but the trust at the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSE:GLD) shed another 6.1 tonnes of the yellow metal yesterday as the summer doldrums continue. Rumor has it that liquidations at John Paulson’s hedge fund (owner of about 10 percent of the ETF) are somehow involved.

Over the last decade, summer has almost always been a good time to buy precious metals and mid-2010 is shaping up to be no exception. Come to think of it, just about any time over the last decade has been a good time to buy gold and silver.

Full Disclosure: Long GLD at time of writing

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Wednesday Morning Links

MUST READS
Fed in Hot Seat Again on Economic Stimulus – NY Times
The Fed’s near-death and rebirth experience – MarketWatch
Obama’s next focus of reform: Housing finance – Washington Post
Countrywide VIP Loans Gave Fannie Mae Employees ‘Sweetheart Deals’ – HuffPo
The Burden of New 1099 Reporting for Small Businesses – Going Concern
What should be done with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac? – Economist
Action List for the Newly Unemployed – Of Two Minds
Elizabeth Warren’s nomination – Salmon, Reuters
Krugman versus Ferguson: Round Two – Telegraph

MARKETS/INVESTING
Oil nears $78 as equity markets improve – AP
Gold rises after Portuguese debt auction – Reuters
Stock Analysts: Not 100% Wrong, but 100% too Optimistic? – WSJ
Hedge funds still attracting billions in new cash – Reuters
Permabull Throws In The Towel… – World of Wall Street
No end to gold’s downfall – Commodity Online

ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/FED
ECRI: No Recession Yet – The Pragmatic Capitalist
Senate advances jobless benefits legislation – Washington Post
Bailout cop: Economy still on government life support – CNN/Money
June Unemployment Rates, by State: Most Regions Show Improvement – WSJ
Do sovereign debt ratios matter? – China Financial Markets
Canada Raises Key Rate, Cuts 2010-11 Growth Forecasts – Bloomberg
Germany’s New Economic Miracle – Spiegel Online
The Ponzi Loan Finance Behind China’s Housing Bubble – Israel’s Financial Expert
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Hits New Record at 4.37% – ZillowBlog
Many don’t qualify for Obama’s foreclosure prevention – CNN/Money
Jim Grant on the New Fed Governor Nominees; Economic Groupthink – Jesse’s Cafe
QE II, or ‘standing up to free markets’ – FT AlphaVille

 
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