REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

“The Second Wife Inflation”

Unlike most of the Western World where de-flation tops central bankers’ list of worries, in India, it is in-flation that keeps them up at night and the Indian people are concerned as well, the latest evidence coming from this item at the WSJ Economics Blog where the men sing sadly about rising prices and how inflation takes their money as might a second wife.

Apparently, it’s a song about poor farmers and rising prices written by Gayaprasad Prajapati from the village of Badwai, with the timely lyrics, “Sakhi saiyyan toh khoob hi kamaat hai/Mehangayi daayan khaye jaat hai/Har mahina uchle petrol, diesel ka uchla hai role…” which loosely translates to “My husband earns a lot, but the second wife inflation is eating it all up, prices of petrol and diesel are rising every month”.

Note that this should not be confused with “Mehangayi Daayan” (The Inflation Witch) from the film Peepli Live by Aamir Khan Productions.

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The Economic Outlook Dims

Following the dismal set’s lowered expectations for the U.S. economy from a USA Today poll noted here on Monday comes another survey of economists by the Associated Press with similar results as detailed in this report earlier today.

The U.S. economic recovery will remain slow deep into next year, held back by shoppers reluctant to spend and employers hesitant to hire, according to an Associated Press survey of leading economists.

The latest quarterly AP Economy Survey shows economists have turned gloomier in the past three months.

The AP survey compiles forecasts of leading private, corporate and academic economists on a range of indicators, including employment, consumer spending and inflation. Among their forecasts:

Economic growth the rest of this year and early next year will weaken, to less than 3 percent. From January through May, the economy grew at roughly a 3.5 percent pace.

The unemployment rate will be no lower at the end of the year than it is now — 9.5 percent. A majority think it will be 2015 or later before the rate falls to a historically normal 5 percent.

State budget shortfalls pose a “significant” or “severe” risk to the national economy. The loss of tax revenue has forced state and local governments to cut services and lay off workers.

It looks as though the U.S. stock market may have just seen this report…

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A Resilient Canadian Housing Bubble?

Spotted over at Paul Kedrosky’s Infectious Greed blog recently was this intriguing chart comparing U.S. home prices to that of our neighbors to the north, something that should strike at least a little bit of fear into the hearts of those in Vancouver and Toronto who somehow think that what they see happening around them is “normal”.

Aside from the source referenced in the chart, it’s not clear where the home price data comes from or how it’s calculated, but, it seems about right based on what I’ve been reading (of course, the Vancouver Olympics didn’t hurt the home buying mood). There is more similar data at the simple financial analysis blog, all of which would make me a little nervous if I were a Canadian counting on my home equity to finance my retirement.

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Furloughs are Back in California

The Sacramento Bee reports on the latest developments in the 2010 edition of the California Budget Crisis, what looks to be the worst episode yet unless help arrives from Washington.

Schwarzenegger brings back furloughs for state workers

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Less than a month after ending unpaid days off for more than 200,000 state workers, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is bringing back a scaled-down version of the policy that will take effect on Sunday.

The governor made the decision this week after Controller John Chiang  said that until lawmakers come up with a budget, he’ll start issuing IOUs in August or September to conserve funds as long as possible. The state’s cash could run out by October, the controller estimated.

“We have a fiscal crisis,” Schwarzenegger spokesman Aaron McLear said Wednesday morning as he explained the new furlough order. “We’re doing what we have to do to conserve cash.”

The last furlough program ended on June 30th, so, state workers will likely see just one full-size paycheck before reverting back to a roughly 15 percent pay cut as a result of being forced to take three days off without pay each month.

(more…)

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Robert Shiller appears on Fox Business News to talk about the latest data from the S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index and the possibility of a double-dip recession in the U.S.

The mainstream media did a poor job of interpreting the May home price data. Here, Shiller says what they should have said, rather than simply reporting that prices rose:

We know that the homebuyer tax credit had a major impact on the housing market. When the first expiration date was reached in November of 2009, home sales surged and then they dropped off. Then we extended the expiration date to April 30th and they surged again. Pending home sales since then show that they’re dropping. So, it’s a major factor. It makes it really hard to forecast right now because there isn’t a history of government getting in and boosting the housing market and what the long-term effects will be.

BTW – some emails to Fox have apparently been calling Shiller a “fear mongering dirtbag”

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Thursday Morning Links

MUST READS
Obama Housing Bailout Under Attack – CNBC
Foreclosures climb in 75% of metro areas – CNN/Money
AP survey: A bleaker outlook for economy into 2011 – AP
Schwarzenegger declares California fiscal emergency – Reuters
Federal Government Hiring Thousands in Wake of Financial Reform Bill – Fins
Extending High-Income Tax Cuts is the Wrong Answer – Romer, White House Blog
Mainstream Economists: “Mission Accomplished” – Washington’s Blog
Euro zone economic sentiment rises to 28-month high – Reuters
The Problem With Rosie On Inflation – Daily Capitalist
Cities threaten to cut 500,000 jobs – CNN/Money

MARKETS/INVESTING
Oil above $77 amid strong earnings, weak US data – AP
Gold rises on Asian demand after prices dip – Reuters
Credit-Suisse Market Watcher: Stocks in ‘Difficult Phase’ – WSJ
Whisky Bet Pits Rosenberg Against Faber on 10-Year U.S. Yield: Tom Keene – Bloomberg
Dow Theorist discord and Crawford’s cataclysm – MarketWatch
Is Gold Pointing to Lehman Mark II? – CNBC
Kass: Crosscurrents Aplenty – The Street

ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/BANKING
Hidden signs of life in the economy – CNN/Money
College Students Hide Hunger, Homelessness – NPR
Durable goods orders fall, business spending up – Reuters
Greece’s Striking Truck Owners Drive Into Trouble – WSJ
Europe’s Two-Speed Economy: North Vs. South – NY Times
Just how risky are China’s housing markets? – voxeu
Cash-In Refinancing Nears Record High in Q210 – Housing Wire
Low Mortgage Rates Leave Buyers Unmotivated – WSJ
MBS Spreads Surpass Lows During Fed Buying – Bloomberg
Some Fed banks report slower growth: – MarketWatch

 
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