REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

The China Property Bubble

If you’ve not already seen the study by Yongheng Deng, Joseph Gyourko, and Jing Wuu that appeared at voxeu the other day and you still think there’s not a problem with real estate prices in China, you might want to go read that paper. The one chart that stood out for me is below along with a conclusion that should strike fear into any recent buyer.

To provide some insight into just how risky prices and price-to-rent ratios are at these levels, we calculated what would happen if people began to expect that their homes would grow in value by only 4% per year. For Beijing, prices would fall by over 40%, absent offsetting rent increases or other countervailing factors.

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The iPad Economy

In the latest issue of the combined Bloomberg/Businessweek (how’s that going, anyway?) you’ll find this intriguing story about the changing habits of the American consumer.

In March, Ralph Ronzio went to a warehouse in a seedy part of Orange County, California, and watched a man auction off his condo for half what he’d paid for it. Ronzio had bought the place for $329,000 in 2005, when he moved to Southern California from Rhode Island to take a job at a data-storage company. It was the first place he’d ever owned.

“It was totally my bachelor pad,” he says. “Not much inside other than the usual leather couch and the big screen TV. My fiancée made me sell the couch.”

That wasn’t the only thing that changed when Ronzio got engaged. His fiancée had two young children, and there wasn’t enough room in the condo for all four of them. So last year, Ronzio bought a house nine miles (14 kilometers) away and they all moved in. He figured he could rent the condo and cover his costs. He figured wrong, Bloomberg Businessweek reports in its Aug. 2 issue.

The more he thought about the money he was losing, the more it stressed him out. Finally, Ronzio enlisted the help of a firm called You Walk Away and did exactly that from the remaining $319,000 on his condo mortgage. When the bank foreclosed, he says he felt a sense of relief. He also had more cash. He and his fiancée took the kids to Disneyland. Ronzio, 31, gave himself a treat as well.

“I bought myself an iPad,” he says.

They once used to say, “what’s more important than the five percent unemployed not spending money is how the other 95 percent do spend theirs”. Apparently, only the numbers have changed as you”ll read about accountant Lucy Johnston not having as many “full-on spa days” anymore while staying at the Bellagio in Las Vegas and how people are buying store brand toothpaste but still getting their daily $4 Starbucks fix.

We’re not making much progress in moving away from a consumption-based economy.

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David Rosenberg was on Tech Ticker the other day talking about the growth prospects for the U.S. economy, his dour view of things increasingly aligning with the real world after each passing week and each new batch of economic data.

I understand there is now a law in Canada that requires citizens who speak in public to use the word “process”  pronounced “prōcess” in their first sentence so that listeners will immediately recognize their country of origin. I could be wrong, but that’s what I heard.

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Here’s a new one. The state legislature in California is floating the idea of swapping a reduction in the state sales tax (already the nation’s highest) for a one percentage point increase in the state income tax (aspiring to overtake Hawaii and Oregon to become the nation’s highest) in order to net a few billion dollars in revenues, one small step toward closing the gaping $19 billion budget shortfall. This story in Bloomberg has the details:

The increase would affect all taxpayers except those in the highest tax bracket, according to Senate President Darrell Steinberg, a Democrat. To make it more palatable to voters, California’s highest-in-the-nation sales tax would be cut simultaneously by 2.5 percentage points. Unlike sales levies, state income taxes are deductible from federal returns. The swap would add as much as $3 billion to the general fund.

The idea is to increase some taxes that are already federally deductible and to allow taxpayers to take advantage of that while lowering some taxes that are not federally deductible, while the state general fund can gain $2 billion to $3 billion for education and other vital services,” Steinberg said in an interview yesterday.

California’s legislative leaders have been meeting for the past three weeks to discuss ways to close the deficit for the fiscal year that began July 1. Controller John Chiang said he may issue IOUs to creditors in August if a budget isn’t passed soon.

It’s going to be a long, hot summer in Sacramento, likely to include more IOUs…

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Economic Growth in Q2 Slows to 2.4% Rate

In the first of three estimates for U.S. economic growth in the second quarter, the Commerce Department reported that real Gross Domestic Product slowed to an annualized rate of 2.4 percent, down from an upwardly revised rate of 3.7 percent in the first quarter, primarily due to a widening trade deficit and declining consumer spending.

This “advance” look at the April-to-June period will be followed by the “preliminary” estimate at the end of next month and then the “final” GDP figures will be released in September. Since there are often large revisions between the first and second data releases, some amount of judgment should be reserved until the preliminary release next month, however, rumors of a major slowdown in growth appear to be well founded.

(more…)

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Friday Morning Links

MUST READS
China overtakes Japan as No.2 economy – Reuters
Fed’s Bullard Calls for ‘Significant’ Easing Plan – CNBC
Economists Expect Slower Growth in Second Half – NY Times
Americans Buy IPads While Broke in New Abnormal Economy – Bloomberg
Taleb: Government Deficits Could Be the Next ‘Black Swan’ – BusinessWeek
Administration’s Housing Bailout: The Big Disconnect – Olick, CNBC
What’s so scary about Elizabeth Warren? – CNN/Money
Trillions for Wall Street – Whitney, Counterpunch
Fetters of gold and paper – voxeu

MARKETS/INVESTING
Oil falls below $78 as global stocks drop – AP
Gold holds steady ahead of U.S. growth data – Reuters
Top Hedge Funds That Dodged Crash Turn Gloomy – Bloomberg
Do You Believe in Technicals or Fundamentals? – Barron’s
Marc Faber Questions if Dow Could Hit 1,000 – CNBC
Deciphering the BIS Gold Swap – Turk, Kitco

ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/BANKING
Deflation Risks – Krugman, NY Times
Economic Growth May Show Consumer Spending Cooled – Bloomberg
Euro-zone jobless rate steady, inflation picks up – MarketWatch
Aussie house prices fall 0.7% in June 2010 – Debt Deflation
UBS ponders the UK’s quiet CPI calibration – FT Alphaville
Popular ‘Zero Down’ Mortgage Program Makes Comeback – WSJ
Housing policy must be set on sustainable basis – Paulson, Washington Post
Hank Paulson: Blame it on FHA/GSEs – The Big Picture
Fed officials clash on need for more stimulus – Reuters
Deflation shot across market’s bow – MarketWatch

 
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