REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

Friday Morning Links

MUST READS
China overtakes Japan as No.2 economy – Reuters
Fed’s Bullard Calls for ‘Significant’ Easing Plan – CNBC
Economists Expect Slower Growth in Second Half – NY Times
Americans Buy IPads While Broke in New Abnormal Economy – Bloomberg
Taleb: Government Deficits Could Be the Next ‘Black Swan’ – BusinessWeek
Administration’s Housing Bailout: The Big Disconnect – Olick, CNBC
What’s so scary about Elizabeth Warren? – CNN/Money
Trillions for Wall Street – Whitney, Counterpunch
Fetters of gold and paper – voxeu

MARKETS/INVESTING
Oil falls below $78 as global stocks drop – AP
Gold holds steady ahead of U.S. growth data – Reuters
Top Hedge Funds That Dodged Crash Turn Gloomy – Bloomberg
Do You Believe in Technicals or Fundamentals? – Barron’s
Marc Faber Questions if Dow Could Hit 1,000 – CNBC
Deciphering the BIS Gold Swap – Turk, Kitco

ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/BANKING
Deflation Risks – Krugman, NY Times
Economic Growth May Show Consumer Spending Cooled – Bloomberg
Euro-zone jobless rate steady, inflation picks up – MarketWatch
Aussie house prices fall 0.7% in June 2010 – Debt Deflation
UBS ponders the UK’s quiet CPI calibration – FT Alphaville
Popular ‘Zero Down’ Mortgage Program Makes Comeback – WSJ
Housing policy must be set on sustainable basis – Paulson, Washington Post
Hank Paulson: Blame it on FHA/GSEs – The Big Picture
Fed officials clash on need for more stimulus – Reuters
Deflation shot across market’s bow – MarketWatch

 






“The Second Wife Inflation”

Unlike most of the Western World where de-flation tops central bankers’ list of worries, in India, it is in-flation that keeps them up at night and the Indian people are concerned as well, the latest evidence coming from this item at the WSJ Economics Blog where the men sing sadly about rising prices and how inflation takes their money as might a second wife.

Apparently, it’s a song about poor farmers and rising prices written by Gayaprasad Prajapati from the village of Badwai, with the timely lyrics, “Sakhi saiyyan toh khoob hi kamaat hai/Mehangayi daayan khaye jaat hai/Har mahina uchle petrol, diesel ka uchla hai role…” which loosely translates to “My husband earns a lot, but the second wife inflation is eating it all up, prices of petrol and diesel are rising every month”.

Note that this should not be confused with “Mehangayi Daayan” (The Inflation Witch) from the film Peepli Live by Aamir Khan Productions.

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The Economic Outlook Dims

Following the dismal set’s lowered expectations for the U.S. economy from a USA Today poll noted here on Monday comes another survey of economists by the Associated Press with similar results as detailed in this report earlier today.

The U.S. economic recovery will remain slow deep into next year, held back by shoppers reluctant to spend and employers hesitant to hire, according to an Associated Press survey of leading economists.

The latest quarterly AP Economy Survey shows economists have turned gloomier in the past three months.

The AP survey compiles forecasts of leading private, corporate and academic economists on a range of indicators, including employment, consumer spending and inflation. Among their forecasts:

Economic growth the rest of this year and early next year will weaken, to less than 3 percent. From January through May, the economy grew at roughly a 3.5 percent pace.

The unemployment rate will be no lower at the end of the year than it is now — 9.5 percent. A majority think it will be 2015 or later before the rate falls to a historically normal 5 percent.

State budget shortfalls pose a “significant” or “severe” risk to the national economy. The loss of tax revenue has forced state and local governments to cut services and lay off workers.

It looks as though the U.S. stock market may have just seen this report…

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A Resilient Canadian Housing Bubble?

Spotted over at Paul Kedrosky’s Infectious Greed blog recently was this intriguing chart comparing U.S. home prices to that of our neighbors to the north, something that should strike at least a little bit of fear into the hearts of those in Vancouver and Toronto who somehow think that what they see happening around them is “normal”.

Aside from the source referenced in the chart, it’s not clear where the home price data comes from or how it’s calculated, but, it seems about right based on what I’ve been reading (of course, the Vancouver Olympics didn’t hurt the home buying mood). There is more similar data at the simple financial analysis blog, all of which would make me a little nervous if I were a Canadian counting on my home equity to finance my retirement.

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Furloughs are Back in California

The Sacramento Bee reports on the latest developments in the 2010 edition of the California Budget Crisis, what looks to be the worst episode yet unless help arrives from Washington.

Schwarzenegger brings back furloughs for state workers

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Less than a month after ending unpaid days off for more than 200,000 state workers, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is bringing back a scaled-down version of the policy that will take effect on Sunday.

The governor made the decision this week after Controller John Chiang  said that until lawmakers come up with a budget, he’ll start issuing IOUs in August or September to conserve funds as long as possible. The state’s cash could run out by October, the controller estimated.

“We have a fiscal crisis,” Schwarzenegger spokesman Aaron McLear said Wednesday morning as he explained the new furlough order. “We’re doing what we have to do to conserve cash.”

The last furlough program ended on June 30th, so, state workers will likely see just one full-size paycheck before reverting back to a roughly 15 percent pay cut as a result of being forced to take three days off without pay each month.

(more…)

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Robert Shiller appears on Fox Business News to talk about the latest data from the S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index and the possibility of a double-dip recession in the U.S.

The mainstream media did a poor job of interpreting the May home price data. Here, Shiller says what they should have said, rather than simply reporting that prices rose:

We know that the homebuyer tax credit had a major impact on the housing market. When the first expiration date was reached in November of 2009, home sales surged and then they dropped off. Then we extended the expiration date to April 30th and they surged again. Pending home sales since then show that they’re dropping. So, it’s a major factor. It makes it really hard to forecast right now because there isn’t a history of government getting in and boosting the housing market and what the long-term effects will be.

BTW – some emails to Fox have apparently been calling Shiller a “fear mongering dirtbag”

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