REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

Why Spy?

It must have been a little disappointing for those Russian spies to have watched what happened here over the last few years after having invested so much time in trying to help topple the world’s only super power, a super power that seems intent on toppling itself.

From the Steve Kelly archive at the Times-Picayune.

Tagged with:  






Mortgage Rates at New Record Lows

It’s fair to say that mortgage rates have now fallen to levels that, most students of history would characterize as simply ridiculous. And, what’s even more ridiculous is that, even at these low rates, buyers aren’t taking the bait and loading up on new debt to go out and get that home of their dreams.

It’s not clear who’s balking more – lenders or borrowers, as it doesn’t seem that anyone trusts anyone else anymore when it comes to credit and debt -  but “freakishly” low rates are no longer the exclusive domain of big banks borrowing from the Fed at zero percent.

Extrapolating from the current trend, aspiring homeowners will be able to borrow from the big banks at zero percent by the end of the summer.

Freddie Mac’s weekly report on the cost of financing a home purchase added to this week’s bizarre set of financial market numbers, 30-year fixed-rate mortgages dropping from 4.69 percent to 4.58 percent, a new record in a data series that goes back almost 40 years.

Fifteen-year mortgage rates have been setting records for more than a month now, last week dropping from 4.13 percent to 4.04 percent.

With the benchmark ten-year note sitting comfortably below three percent, we’ll probably soon see 15-year mortgages going for under four percent, part of this brave new financial world of 2010 that, lately, looks like it wants to do an encore of its 2008 performance.

After the June Institute for Supply Management numbers came in well below expectations (yes, the economists were a tad too optimistic again), down from 59.7 in May to a still expanding 56.2 last month but the lowest reading in six months, a lot of people are starting to wonder if the stock market already sees the parallels between 2002 and 2010.

The manufacturing sector has been the lonely star of the economic “recovery” that began about a year ago – the housing market and labor market remain decidedly AWOL – and the dismal set is probably already sharpening their pencils in order to calculate new numbers for second-half economic growth if this sector succumbs to the same ills.

Tagged with:  

The first hard data on the condition of the post-free-government-money housing market came with today’s release of May pending home sales from the National Association of Realtors and the picture isn’t a pretty one – pending home sales plunged by some 30 percent from the month before. This report in Bloomberg has the details:

The drop was the biggest in records dating to 2001 and compared with a 14 percent decrease forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of economists.

The decline shows that the industry at the center of the financial crisis remains vulnerable in the absence of government support. A stabilization in housing will depend on gains in incomes and employment that may stem foreclosures and give Americans the confidence to start buying again.

“Demand will be pretty depressed in the next few months,” Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates Inc. in St. Petersburg, Florida, said before the report. “We’re still going to have a big overhang of foreclosures. There’s potential for prices to slow down a lot more.”

Forecasts for the decline ranged from 4 percent to 25 percent, according to a Bloomberg News survey of 36 economists. Sales rose 6 percent in April.

Now there’s a real shocker – not a single one of the 36 economists polled by Bloomberg saw a 30 percent decline coming. What won’t they see coming next?

Tagged with:  

There are all manner of postmortems out today for financial markets during the first half of the year, but, it seems that volatility is one of the more important stories, the Dow’s 268 point dip the the day continuing the change in trend seen in recent months.

Tom Petruno at the LA Times published a first half scorecard after markets closed yesterday and it seems that a barbell portfolio was particularly effective from January to June, that is, Treasuries on one end (up 15.2 percent) and gold on the other end (up 13.4 percent).

Tagged with:  

Thursday Morning Links

MUST READS
1.3 Million Unemployed Won’t Get Benefits Restored – AP
Financial Overhaul Wins Final Approval in House – NY Times
Global Manufacturing Shows Weakening From China to Europe – Bloomberg
Priests Slammed Printing Press, Fed Economist Slams Bloggers – Washington’s Blog
Jeff Gundlach Says the USA Will Default – Pragmatic Capitalist
Governments Move to Cut Spending, in 1930s Echo – NY Times
Greenspan: Recent Decline ‘Typical’ of Recovery – CNBC
CBO chief: Budget outlook ‘daunting’ – CNN/Money

MARKETS/INVESTING
Gold is the only safe place – MarketWatch
Oil falls below $75 on China demand doubts – Reuters
First-half scorecard: Bonds trounce stocks – LA Times
Investment Outlook: Alphabet Soup – Gross, Pimco
Gold as a Percent of Equities/Fixed Income – EconomPicData
It’s time to protect stock portfolios now – MarketWatch
Stocks: If you thought the 1st half was bad… – CNN/Money
Calpers and risk: Together forever? – Fortune

MISCELLANY
Where in the world is a good economy? – Fortune
Economics is Easy; Comedy is Hard – The Big Picture
Personal savings rate: worse than we thought – CNN/Money
Asian factory data may signal crisis rebound has peaked – Bloomberg
Why banks are self-defeating on housing – Salmon, Reuters
Fed Made Taxpayers Unwitting Junk-Bond Buyers – Bloomberg
Homebuyer credit extension heads to Obama – CNN/Money
Time to shut down the US Federal Reserve? – Telegraph
Fed officials see soft recovery and more uncertainty – Reuters

 
Page 21 of 21« First...101718192021
© 2010-2011 The Mess That Greenspan Made