REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

Tuesday Morning Links

 






A More Dismal Economic Forecast

USA Today has collected the results of its latest quarterly economic survey in this report that contains the chart shown below, the collective work of almost 50 of the nation’s top economist who now predict that growth in the U.S. will slow down a bit this fall.

Unemployment is expected to remain quite high (U3 >9 percent) and consumer prices low (CPI <2 percent) with the first interest rate hike coming early next year. This could be a very interesting (and fun!) forecast to come back to later this year or early in 2011 given that the current outlook is “unusually uncertain” (according to the nation’s top economist, Fed Chief Ben Bernanke) and the recently dismal track record of economists predicting the future.

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Dying of Money, 21st Century Edition

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard ruminates on the idea that the value of paper money will, at some point, drop like a rock, citing strong demand for Jens O. Parson’s hard-to-find classic “Dying of Money” as evidence of renewed interest in what might happen when the money multiplier turns sharply positive again, mobilizing bank reserves now on a scale never before seen by man that the wisest economists in the world believe to be harmless today.

In the process, he also shares some details on what life was like in Wiemar Germany and mentions a conspiracy theory about Jews in Germany you may not have heard before, one that, true or not, likely played a role in what Hitler’s Germany did a decade or so later.

Corruption became rampant. People were stripped of their coat and shoes at knife-point on the street. The winners were those who — by luck or design — had borrowed heavily from banks to buy hard assets, or industrial conglomerates that had issued debentures. There was a great transfer of wealth from saver to debtor, though the Reichstag later passed a law linking old contracts to the gold price. Creditors clawed back something.

A conspiracy theory took root that the inflation was a Jewish plot to ruin Germany. The currency became known as “Judefetzen” (Jew- confetti), hinting at the chain of events that would lead to Kristallnacht a decade later.

By the way, I understand there are .pdf copies of Dying of Money floating around on the internet. A thorough search may turn up a copy at considerably less than the $235 now being asked at Amazon or the $699 noted by Ambrose.

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New Home Sales Surge 24 Percent!

It appears as though the U.S. housing market has finally turned the corner as the Census Bureau reported(.pdf) a short while ago that new home sales surged 24 percent in June, the biggest monthly increase in almost six decades of record keeping.

This stunning increase has caused housing bears across the land to “throw in the towel”, retracting recent predictions of a double-dip decline for home prices, and the mainstream financial media is overflowing with glowing headlines about the resurgence of the nation’s housing market as shown below.

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Misunderestimating Deflation

Jon Hilsenrath files this report in the Wall Street Journal about the deflation that occurred almost 80 years ago in the U.S. and a similar bout of falling prices more recently in Japan.

The old bogeyman of deflation has re-emerged as a worry for the U.S. economy. Here’s something else to fret about: After studying more than a decade of deflation in Japan, economists have slowly realized they have no idea how it works.

Deflation is usually associated with a Great Depression-like drop in demand. Consumer prices, incomes and asset prices fall. Interest rates go to zero, as low as they can go. As prices and incomes fall, the cost to borrowers of servicing debt does not, sucking life out of the economy and pushing prices down further. A bad situation, in short, gets worse.

In 1932, U.S. consumer prices fell 10% and between 1929 and 1933 they fell 27% in all.

Economists don’t have good answers. “We don’t know how deflation works,” says Adam Posen, a member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee who has been studying Japan since 1997. “We don’t have a way of rationalizing steady, several-year flat deflation,” he says.s.

Whatever deflation is or does, Fed Chief Ben Bernanke plans to make sure it doesn’t happen here and, given how he’s managed to crank up the printing press over the last couple years, he should probably be taken at his word.

BTW – That graphic looks to be incorrect as the 1930s deflation is portrayed as a relatively modest affair when there were, in fact, double-digit declines as noted in the report.

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Roubini and Rogers on the Stress Tests

Nouriel Roubini doesn’t think much of the European bank stress tests, due largely to the assumptions that were made for the economy and because sovereign debt risk was omitted.

According to this separate report at CNBC, famed investor Jim Rogers said via email that the stress test was “a waste of time – and journalistic ink”. He went on to add that, as was the case in the U.S., the test was just “a PR exercise”.

In Europe, they’re probably hoping that their PR exercise works as well as ours did.

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