REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

Larry Kudlow talks to Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) about the $26 billion “jobs” bill that was signed into law today, an effort to prevent states that can’t balance their budgets from sending pink slips to hundreds of thousands of teachers, policeman, and other public sector workers.

Remember when a “jobs bill” was something aimed at creating new jobs in the private sector? Not surprisingly, Larry is more interested in the Bush tax cuts than teachers’ jobs.

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Well, so much for Ben Bernanke and the brain trust at the Federal Reserve not wanting to appear overly concerned about the flagging economic recovery in the U.S. and not wanting to set expectations too high for QE II (i.e., trillions more in money printing).

A short time ago the central bank’s policy making committed released a statement indicating that, to the surprise of no one, short-term interest rates will remain at their freakishly low level of zero “for an extended period”.

As shown to the right, it will be just months before Bernanke outdoes his predecessor, former Fed Chief Alan Greenspan, in keeping rates lowest the longest.

But, the big news was a major downgrading of the economy’s performance and a new policy aimed at keeping the Fed’s $2.3+ trillion balance sheet from shrinking.

On the economy, in place of June’s comment that “the economic recovery is proceeding and the labor market is improving gradually”, the August statement notes “the pace of recovery in output and employment has slowed in recent months”. More importantly, a new paragraph has been added in which the natural decline in mortgage debt due to paydowns will be offset by using those proceeds to buy long-term Treasuries.

The last two policy statements are shown side-by-side below.

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Chris Martenson was on tech ticker the other day and, when asked whether we’ll see in-flation or de-flation in the period ahead he replies with a resounding “Yes”.

Says Martenson: “The Continuous Commodity Index is absolutely screaming inflation at this point in time over the past eight or nine year timeframe, but, at the same time, we’re seeing houses decline in price, we’re seeing a number of other things – asset prices – move lower, which, I think is what the Fed is most concerned about at this point in time. So, I think we’re going to see both”. He’s also convinced that a double-dip recession is imminent.

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In recent years, the subject of “reaching out to the unbanked” has popped up in the news from time to time (I wrote about it here in 2007), the idea that everyone should have a relationship with a bank beyond cashing their paycheck seeming to be an integral part of what passes for conventional wisdom amongst the nation’s economists and bankers.

But, apparently, the housing bust and the resulting recession have both set that effort back just a bit, the appeal of racking up huge piles of debt and paying bank fees no longer what it used to be, at least according to this story in USA Today.

In an effort to bring more consumers into the financial mainstream, the board of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is scheduled to vote today on a program to encourage banks to offer no-frills, low-cost checking and savings accounts. The FDIC’s model checking account would allow customers to open an account for as little as $10. While banks may decide to charge a low monthly maintenance fee, the accounts won’t have the kind of surprise fees — such as overdraft protection fees — that have led consumers to abandon banks, says FDIC Chair Sheila Bair.

Bank regulators and consumer advocates say more low-cost bank and credit union accounts are needed because consumers who use alternative financial services are vulnerable to theft and predatory practices. A 2008 study by the Pew Charitable Trusts estimated that the average “unbanked” household in California spends $700 a year just to cash checks. When they need to borrow money, unbanked consumers often turn to payday loans, which carry annual percentage interest rates of 380% or more.

Unbanked and underbanked consumers are also less likely to save, says Eleni Constantine, director of the Pew Health Group’s Financial Services Portfolio. In a survey of low-income Los Angeles households, Pew found that more than twice as many consumers who had bank accounts said they were earning enough to pay their bills and save for the future than those who didn’t have bank accounts.

It’s a good thing we’ve got government agencies looking out for the banks. It’s hard to imagine how the nation’s economy will ever recover if we don’t get more people to borrow more money to buy more things that they don’t really need.

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There seems to be a growing consensus that home prices are headed down, not up, in the absence of free money from Uncle Sam, the only important question being the magnitude of the decline. Housing Wire reports on a few of the latest analysts’ estimates including Moody’s where the chart below was offered.

The “vicious cycle” potential is clear to see in the two possible scenarios depicted above – either prices hold relatively firm, in which case, it’s just an extended flatlining for home values, or a real double-dip occurs where prices plummet 20 percent or more. They’ve increase the odds of the latter from one-in-five to one-in-four.

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Tuesday Morning Links

MUST READS
Fed Jitters Hit Futures – WSJ
Fed Will Meet With Concerns on Deflation Rising – NY Times
Raise taxes now — the elders of the economy say so – CNN/Money
Compensation gap between federal, private jobs doubles – USA Today
Bacchus Calls for Investigation into GSE Whistleblower Allegations – Housing Wire
Stoneleigh takes on John Williams: Deflation it is – automatic earth
Obama’s economic team exhausted – The Hill
America Goes Dark – Krugman, NY Times
Why I’m Not Hiring($) – WSJ

MARKETS/INVESTING
Oil falls to near $80 ahead of Fed meeting – AP
Gold edges below $1,200 an ounce ahead of Fed meeting – Reuters
China’s Stocks Fall Most in Six Weeks on Trade, Property Prices – Bloomberg
Hedge funds have second-best month of 2010 in July – MarketWatch
Are Analyst About to Get Real on 2011 Earnings? – WSJ
Kass: Unemployment Must Be Addressed – The Street

ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/BANKING
Economic Pessimists Gain Cachet – NY Times
Significant chance of recession next 2 years: SF Fed – Reuters
Why the China Miracle Is Really a Debt-Financed Bubble – Minyanville
Flooded with Housing Inventory, Freddie REO Sales Surge – Housing Wire
`Buy and Bail’ Homeowners Get Past Mortgage Hurdles – Bloomberg
Freddie Mac narrows loss, needs more government aid – Washington Post
Broker: Short sale gridlock is ‘dizzying’ – OC Register
New Housing Bailout? Try Old Housing Bailout – CNBC
Poole: Fed Bond Buying Won’t Help – WSJ
Waiting for Nothing? – Fed Watch

 
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