REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

Here’s a pretty good pair of graphics that show just how unsustainable California public sector finances have become over the last couple of years.

Outgoing Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger had a few words to go along with the pictures in this WSJ op-ed where the charts were spotted, but the words don’t seem necessary.

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Bernanke Speaks, Markets Rise

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke certainly seems to have figured out how to dole out bits and pieces of what markets seem to want to hear, namely, that the central bank is ready, willing, and able to crank up the printing press in order to keep asset prices aloft under the broad cover of fighting deflation. Today’s speech at the Fed confab in Jackson Hole, Wyoming offers another good example.

Notwithstanding the fact that the policy rate is near its zero lower bound, the Federal Reserve retains a number of tools and strategies for providing additional stimulus. I will focus here on three that have been part of recent staff analyses and discussion at FOMC meetings: (1) conducting additional purchases of longer-term securities, (2) modifying the Committee’s communication, and (3) reducing the interest paid on excess reserves. I will also comment on a fourth strategy, proposed by several economists–namely, that the FOMC increase its inflation goals.

Falling into deflation is not a significant risk for the United States at this time, but that is true in part because the public understands that the Federal Reserve will be vigilant and proactive in addressing significant further disinflation. It is worthwhile to note that, if deflation risks were to increase, the benefit-cost tradeoffs of some of our policy tools could become significantly more favorable.

Second, regardless of the risks of deflation, the FOMC will do all that it can to ensure continuation of the economic recovery. Consistent with our mandate, the Federal Reserve is committed to promoting growth in employment and reducing resource slack more generally.

That last part in bold is probably what has buyers of everything but Treasuries bidding prices higher since, as the $2.3 trillion Fed balance sheet has ably demonstrated, the phrase “all that it can” means trillions more dollars being summoned for the greater good.

The Pause that Refreshes

The Commerce Department did its job by publishing a better-than-expected downward revision to economic growth in the second quarter and stock futures are rising. Now, it’s up to Fed Chief Ben Bernanke with today’s other market-moving news, a speech to be delivered at the Fed’s Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole. Reuters offers this preview:

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will have to address a number of pressing issues in a speech on Friday as investors search for more clarity on how close the central bank might be to another asset-buying spree to support the flagging recovery.

Bernanke will also likely touch on fears of waning economic momentum as evidenced by a parade of gloomy indicators, suggesting the U.S. economy has slowed to a crawl when he speaks at the Fed’s annual retreat in the Teton mountains.

He may also note the Fed’s decision earlier this month to renew purchases of assets to replace ones that have rolled off the Fed’s balance sheet.

But he seems unlikely to offer any detailed plan of what the U.S. central bank will do going forward or to define what would trigger more aggressive steps by the Fed.

That could be a problem…

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Economic Growth in Q2 Revised to 1.6% Rate

The Commerce Department reported that the rate of economic growth in the U.S. during the second quarter was revised downward from the advance estimate of 2.4 percent provided last month to just 1.6 percent, equal to the rate seen in the third quarter of 2009 when the economy first began expanding again after more than a year of contraction.

The new figure was better than analysts’ expectations for a 1.4 percent rate, lower net exports and a smaller inventory gain being the major factors in the downward revision. The surge in imports subtracted a full 3.4 percentage points from economic growth, the biggest impact by the trade deficit in 63 years.

Consumer spending was revised upward, from a previously reported rate of 1.6 percent to 2 percent to offset other downward revisions,  and business spending continued to be the major factor in the overall gain, increasing almost 25 percent from the first quarter.

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Friday Morning Links

MUST READS
Dow below 10,000 on economic worries – Reuters
All Eyes on Bernanke’s Speech From on High – Barron’s
Foreclosures Fall, but Early Delinquencies Rise – NY Times
Banks’ Self-Dealing Super-Charged Financial Crisis – ProPublica
Mortgage rates decline to lowest on record: Freddie Mac – Reuters
Bernanke, Trichet Economic Paths May Diverge at Jackson Hole – Bloomberg
Procrastination on Foreclosures, Now ‘Blatant,’ May Backfire – American Banker
Banks appear close to killing foreclosure-prevention bill – LA Times
Hyperinflation, Part II: What It Will Look Like – Gonzalo Lira
Public Pensions and Our Fiscal Future – Schwarzenegger, WSJ
The Great Deleveraging Lie – The Burning Platform
Paper warns of U.S. debt crisis – Fortune

MARKETS/INVESTING
Oil rises towards $74 ahead of GDP data – Reuters
Gold Steady as Eight-Week High Spur Sales – Bloomberg
Citi Says QE2 Would Be End-Game For The USD – Zero Hedge
SocGen’s Albert Edwards Says We’re Headed For S&P 450 – Business Insider
Buy Gold in August, expect good returns in next two months – Commodity Online
Energy use is way down – but wind surges – CNN/Money
Expect ‘Mass Panic’ in Markets Friday? – Cramer, CNBC

ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/BANKING
This Is Not a Recovery – Krugman, NY Times
Economy slowing to a crawl – or a halt? – CNN/Money
Why another fiscal stimulus won’t do – Washington Post
UK economy grows at fastest pace in nine years – Telegraph
Japan’s jobless rate falls, but deflation persists – AP
Beijing district releases official housing vacancy rates – MarketWatch
An Autopsy of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac – NY Times
Let the Housing Market Normalize! – Paul, Campaign for Liberty
The dark side of loan-modification assistance – MarketWatch
Report on Fannie, Freddie gives new theory for collapse – Washington Post
Hoenig: Changed Jackson Hole Guest List Discourages `Group Think’ – Bloomberg
Fed Annual Meeting in Jackson Hole: TED for Economists? – Infectious Greed

 
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