REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

The Uber-Keynesians at Pimco

It’s not too hard to understand why, if you happen to run the biggest bond fund on the planet and you find yourself in the middle of the biggest bond bubble the world has ever seen, you’d do whatever you could to keep bond prices from falling for as long as possible.

That’s why it shouldn’t have come as too big of a surprise yesterday at the Treasury Department’s Conference on the Future of Housing Finance to hear Pimco chief Bill Gross say that, not only should the nation’s mortgage market be nationalized (formalizing what everyone already understands to be true about U.S. mortgage debt – that the U.S. government is on the hook for a large portion of it), but that it might give the economy a little boost if billions more in taxpayer money were to be used to refinance all mortgages across this great land into low rate government loans.

While Bill was in Washington, Pimco’s Managing Director Paul McCulley was busy putting the finishing touches on his monthly commentary back in tony Newport Beach in which he argues that the central bank should take the governor off their printing press and let ‘er rip.

* When the economy suffers from Post Bubble Disorder, characterized by private sector deleveraging and a fat-tail risk of deflation, conventional monetary policy is not enough.

* In such circumstances, the central bank has a profound duty to act unconventionally, ballooning its balance sheet by monetizing assets, either government or private, or both.

* The central bank has a profound duty to meld itself with the fiscal authority, until the fat risk of deflation is eliminated.

There you have it. The unholy melding of mortgage finance, the central bank’s printing press, and the big spenders up on Capitol Hill in order to ward off deflation in a post-bubble world, all of which should keep the bond bubble fully inflated for some time.

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How Unemployment Has Spread

The U.S. unemployment rate by county since 2007 is shown in this time-lapse sequence spotted over at the Huffington Post earlier today. Note the changes that occurred as the financial market crisis and recession entered their most severe stage in late-2008.

For those wanting an even closer look at this, a larger version of the video can be found at LaToya Egwuekwe’s blog at the American Observer.

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Apparently, after what’s happened to the global financial system over the last few years, the world’s central bankers have had a dramatic change in thinking about gold bullion, formerly known as the “barbarous relic”. A metal once considered to be a remnant of a bygone era is now increasingly viewed as not only relevant, but “the most important” central bank asset.

The details are in this Financial Times report($) (alternate link):

Even so, the more positive trend towards gold was highlighted recently by UBS, the Swiss bank, in its annual poll of central bank and sovereign wealth funds. It found nearly a quarter of central banks believed gold would become the most important reserve asset in the next 25 years.

At its annual seminar for sovereign institutions, UBS surveyed more than 80 central bank reserve managers, sovereign wealth funds and multilateral institutions with more than $8,000bn in assets. The results were not weighted for assets under management.

Asked what the most important reserve asset would be in 25 years, roughly half of polled officials chose the US dollar, but 22 per cent chose gold. Bullion was the second most popular response, well above others such as Asian currencies or the euro.

Not surprisingly, given the combination of U.S. dollar hegemony and a seemingly insatiable desire in Washington to borrow, print, and spend our way back to the prosperity we once knew, the appeal of gold over paper money is strongest in emerging market economies where the standard of living is still rising and the future still seems brighter.

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GLD Adds 7.9 Tonnes to the Trust

Reversing the trend that began in early-July and then accelerated later in the month, the “tonnes in the trust” at the popular SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSE:GLD) has been rising in recent weeks, the largest addition in over two months occurring just yesterday.

Some of this new buying could have come from Eton Park Capital Management as they recently disclosed via regulatory filings that their hedge fund holdings of GLD went from zero in the first quarter to nearly $800 million in the second quarter. John Paulson reported that his hedge funds now own 31.5 million shares of GLD,  unchanged from the first quarter, and he remains the ETF’s largest holder at just under $4 billion.

Full Disclosure: Long gold coins and GLD at time of writing.

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Wednesday Morning Links

MUST READS
Geithner Sees U.S. Role in Mortgage Market – WSJ
U.S. role at heart of housing debate – Washington Post
Barney Frank: Fannie, Freddie ‘Should Be Abolished’ – HuffPost
Pimco’s Gross Urges `Full Nationalization’ of Housing Finance – Bloomberg
Pimco’s Gross: Mortgage market needs more U.S. help, not less – LA Times
China Doubles Korea Bond Holdings as Asia Switches From Dollar – Bloomberg
Warren sits down with big bank lobbyists – Washington Post
Plan Promotes Bank Accounts For Consumers – WSJ
Time is running out for the West – Telegraph

MARKETS/INVESTING
Oil falls on report showing rise in US supplies – AP
Gold firms near 1-½ month high; ETF holdings up – Reuters
George Soros slashes exposure to US equities – Telegraph
Time to cash in on China gold rush – Commodity Online
Mad Money: 10 Reasons Why We Won’t Crash – CNBC
Dollar’s bounce fades – MarketWatch

ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/BANKING
Home Builders Not Driving Economic Recovery – U.S. News
Struggling economy keeps bankruptcy courts busy – McClatchy
Solid demand for Irish bonds soothes nerves – MarketWatch
China Sets Strict Rules on Off-Book Loans – NY Times
Bill Gross: Refinance Wave Could Lift Home Prices – WSJ
The Problem Is that Home Prices Are Too High – Kid Dynamite
Refinancing Now Accounts for 80% of All Loan Activity – Housing Wire
Fed Buys $2.551 Billion Treasuries in Resumption of Purchases – Bloomberg
Fed’s shift in policy doesn’t change its basic outlook – Washington Post
When Unconventional Becomes Conventional – McCulley, Pimco

 

Feder: “We May See the Bottom Fall Out”

Radar Logic CEO Michael Feder talks to Matt Miller and Carol Massar of Bloomberg about the housing market, saying home sales this summer are likely to be the “lowest activity in years” as a result of the homebuyer tax credit pulling so much demand forward in the spring.

The headline this interview generated at Bloomberg appears in the title of this post above. Feder notes that home sales could decline anywhere between 10 percent and 40 percent now that homebuyers are no longer being paid to buy houses.

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