Given their mostly dismal forecasting track record in recent years and their continuing inability to reconcile what happens in the real world with what passes for economic theory, it’s not clear why economists continue to be asked for their opinions on these matters or why their views continue to be published in the financial media, but they are and they do. This CNN/Money report examines the results from the latest survey of business economists.
The air is quickly coming out of the recovery balloon, and economists have mixed views on how to pump it back up.
The National Association of Business Economists said Monday that three-quarters of its members believe that promoting economic growth should be a higher priority than reducing the national deficit, according to an August survey of the nation’s economic policy.
However, nearly the same number of NABE economists said they do not think another stimulus package is necessary to halt the economic slowdown and get the economy back on track. At the same time, a majority believe that policymakers should do more to boost job growth.
The survey, based on responses from 84 NABE economists who work for private-sector firms and industry trade associations, comes as economic growth in the United States has slowed significantly after rebounding from a deep recession. Economists have been reducing their growth forecasts, and some are worried the economy could slip back into a downturn.
Part of the problem is that it pays to be positive, that is, if you want to make a living in this field. Unless you’re one of the select few bearish economists who have been able to make a name for themselves over the years (e.g., Rosenberg, Roubini, etc.), you’ve pretty much got to have the curves on your charts going from the lower left to the upper right.
Why would anyone hire you if you had a dim view of the U.S. economy?
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