REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

SLV Inventory Reaches New Record High

A quick break from the daily reruns here is in order to note the new record high for the “tonnes in the trust” at the popular iShares Silver Trust ETF (NYSE:SLV). Now at 9,787 tonnes, it looks ready to make an assault on the 10,000 mark.

A whopping 510 tonnes have been added over the last three weeks – more than $350 million worth – as more and more investors opt to trade in their paper money for a paper certificate that represents a tiny part of the SLV holdings. With the metal now surpassing the $22 mark for the first time since 1980, look for even higher inventory levels in the future.

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Supply-Sider Investment Advice

[This item originally appeared on June 11th, 2006, back when I used to occasionally watch the weekend Fox business news shows before there was a Fox Business Channel. I don't want to ruin the fun for anyone by telling you what Beazer Homes trades at today, but I will provide this link for when you're ready to find out.]

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There’s been a little yellow sticky note at the top of my computer monitor since the end of January of this year. It says, “1/21 – Cavuto – Herman Cain – BZH – $75″, in reference to a recommendation made by Herman Cain on the Fox business news show Cavuto on Business to buy Beazer Homes at $75 about five months ago.

It’s been sitting there for a while now, and it wasn’t really clear what should be done with it aside from maybe adding it to the collection of prognostications that are kept in a text file on my computer desktop. But that text file contains predictions from people whose opinions are respected here, so Herman’s little stock tip really didn’t fit neatly into that category.

So, when John Rutledge started talking about commodities the other day on Larry Kudlow’s show (a program that is viewed here about once every few weeks, and then only to listen to Barry Ritholtz and Herb Greenberg unsuccessfully try to beat some sense into Larry’s skull on Thursday afternoons) the idea was hatched to combine these two bits of supply-sider clairvoyance into a short little Sunday post to demonstrate the dangers that lie in wait for anyone taking investment advice from these types.

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The “Short Sale Speech”

Bill Joyce (otherwise known as Sacramento Bill) sent me a link to his full short sale speech after having spotted this reference to it here about a week ago. Here it is:

The seller isn’t the seller. The banks and investors are the parties in charge.

A short sale is a negotiation between borrower and lender (or lenders) and the buyer plays a minor and expendable role. A short sale is about mitigating the loss of a non performing asset (the loan). The sale of the home is one piece of the puzzle. Customer satisfaction and keeping the buyer happy are not priorities in loss mitigation. In fact, I’m not even sure they are considerations.

The buyer & buyer’s agent are isolated from the true authority (Banks/investors) to negotiate, or problem solve. As a result, the buyer is essentially along for the ride and success is based on the seller’s circumstances, skills of the seller’s agent and the willingness of the banks and investors. All out of the buyers control.

The failure rate is high… the odds are, after many months, a home will not be sold as a short sale. While the success rate has been upgraded from horrible to bad, the odds are still against a buyer having a successful short sale purchase.

There is not a great process in place with banks. Call centers are overwhelmed with high call volumes. There are typically multiple banks and investors each with their own and often changing objectives. Combined with an apparent low motivation to complete any particular short sale, you can expect documents to be lost, files get closed without notice and what will feel like an unlimited variety of absurd hurdles. Muddling through best describes the typical short sale.

The seller is in a bad place financially and emotionally. The seller would probably jump at the chance to get the price the buyer is getting and stay in their home. Don’t expect the seller to behave like a typical seller profiting from the sale of their home. Don’t expect gratitude from the seller.

It isn’t all doom and gloom for the potential (if unlikely) short sale buyer, however, as there are a number of things that they can do to better prepare themselves for what’s ahead.

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The Return of the Short Sale

[Moving forward to 2006 when the stresses and strains really began to show for the nation's housing market, this item, originally published on June 7th, 2006, came around the time when the phrase "upside down" was first starting to be heard in reference to houses. It's a bit odd to have come across this one today, after our recent experience detailed here.]

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If you lived in California about fifteen years ago you probably remember short sales – it looks like they’re about to make a comeback. A report from Sacramento this week sounds eerily similar to the 1990-1996 California real estate bust, except home prices are multiples of what they were back then.

The possibility of a short sale arises when you need to sell your house, but you owe more than it’s worth – like a fully-financed new car being driven off the dealer’s lot, you are “upside-down” on your loan. That’s a phrase we might be hearing a lot more of in the years ahead – “upside-down”.

With home prices apparently falling in Sacramento after a phenomenal run-up in recent years, many of those who purchased real estate at last summer’s peak and put little or no money down, today owe more than their home will fetch in a real estate market now crowded with inventory.

If, for one reason or another, these homeowners must sell, then they are faced with a few choices, none of which are very appealing:

  1. Sell the house, and pay the difference to the lender
  2. Walk away, and give the house back to the lender
  3. Make a deal with the lender to accept less than the loan amount

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If There’s a Crisis…

[Today's blast from the past will be the last of the 2005-era remembrances, some words from former Fed Chief Alan Greenspan about a possible future crisis recalled in this item from June 20th of that year. Tomorrow, a look at June 2006 will begin, back when people understood a little better just how bad the housing bubble really was.]

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If there’s a crisis, we’ll all get together and solve it – or hopefully solve it.
Alan Greenspan, June 23, 2005

During last week’s Senate Finance Committee Hearing on U.S.-China Trade Relations, there were a few interesting exchanges between Senator Max Baucus (D – Montana) and Alan Greenspan. Yes, this hearing is old news by now, but some of this discussion really is worth a closer look, even belatedly. The complete hearing is still available at CPAN via this link, and there is some additional coverage here and here.

It is becoming clear that when Alan Greenspan goes to Capitol Hill, the Q&A session following the prepared remarks is much more interesting than any of the prepared remarks. While the mainstream financial media does cover both, they seem to miss some of the real gems within the Q&A session.

Speaking of real gems, Treasury Secretary Snow was also present for this segment of the hearing. Come next January, he’ going to be the government’s highest profile guy on the U.S. economy – that’s a scary thought. It took the panel about a half hour to ask Snow his first question, and they probably regretted doing so – on a few occasions, when the CSPAN cameras panned back to the committee table while Snow spoke, Senators could be seen rolling their eyes.

The contrast of alternatively listening to Snow and Greenspan was fairly remarkable – Snow sounds like he’s still giving his social security stump speech, picking a few phrases and just repeating them over and over. Can you imagine what former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin must think when he hears Snow talk?

Anyway, back to Max Baucus and Alan Greenspan…

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Valuable Lessons About Debt

[Below is one of those few posts from the old blog that have been republished a number of times over the years since originally appearing on June 28th, 2005. It makes a number of simple, but important points about different kinds of consumer debt and the lessons that they teach, all of which had been unlearned when the housing bubble reached its maximum point of inflation around the middle of the last decade.]

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Since credit cards were first issued and automobiles first financed, bankers and car salesman have been more than happy to assist individuals in realizing their full borrowing potential. Realizing their full potential, that is, by borrowing more money than they should.

For young adults, perhaps living independently and with their first full-time job, this could lead to important life lessons about managing debt and living within their means. After many months or years of credit card and automobile payments, the initial thrill having long since worn off leaving only the payments, valuable lessons about borrowing too much money have often been learned – lessons that are not quickly forgotten.

When purchasing homes, on the other hand, it used to be quite difficult to take on more debt than would seem reasonable – there, the bar was set higher. Years ago, couples would walk out of their mortgage broker’s office disappointed and dejected because their dreams had been thwarted by a loan officer without a heart.

These too were valuable lessons about debt.

Maybe it seemed unfair, but someone who was presumably older and wiser had determined that the dream home so coveted by the young couple was simply beyond their means. Maybe when the couple later reflected on their denied attempt to purchase their dream home, they realized that the lender probably knew best.

But, the financing of real estate purchases has changed dramatically in recent years. Now that home financing has become as easy as getting a credit card or buying a car, valuable lessons about debt learned early on, are being unlearned later in life – this is probably not a good thing.

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