REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

A pretty stunning chart on the historic disconnect between stock mutual fund flows and stock market returns comes from the Investment Company Institute via this item at Zero Hedge a short time ago. Apparently, you don’t need your typical 401K stock mutual fund investor anymore for stocks to keep going up.

Click to enlarge

Yes, that area shaded in pink on the far right is the region that everyone has been talking about lately and the recent reversal in fund flows might mean that, for once, retail investors are ahead of the curve (literally), rather than behind it.

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Oh No! Another “Death Cross”?

You’d think that somebody would have already been killed by now with all the “death cross” sightings and warnings named for German passenger airships that catch fire and fall to the earth killing passengers and bystanders. MarketWatch files this report on some technical indicators pointing to something bad ahead for the U.S. dollar.

An exchange-traded fund that follows the movement of the U.S. dollar against a basket of foreign currencies looks to be approaching a closely watched technical indicator traders call a “death cross.”

Technical analysis has grown in popularity as investors grope to make sense of an uncertain market prone to violent swings after the credit collapse. For example, investors were bombarded by headlines in early July pronouncing a death cross in the S&P 500 Index.

Traders closely watch moving averages for major indexes to get a feel for trends and where markets may be heading. When the 50-day moving average moves below the longer 200-day moving average, it’s known as a death cross and may forecast lower prices ahead. The opposite situation — when the 50-day rises above the 200-day — is often called a “golden cross.”

Of course, technical levels and indicators aren’t gospel. As a reminder, the appearance of the S&P 500 death cross in early July coincided almost exactly with the year-to-date low for U.S. stocks. The so-called Hindenburg Omen is another obscure technical indicator with an ominous name that has gotten a lot of press lately, but its forecasting track record is mixed at best.

The dollar death cross has not yet formed and maybe it never will. Moreover, if it does, it may mean nothing at all, so, there is really no reason for alarm – just be careful out there…

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Silver Continues to Probe the $20 Level

Since first breaching the $20 an ounce level on Tuesday for the first time in nearly two-and-a-half years, the silver price has advanced above that mark about a dozen more times, in each instance being sent lower in short order.

When considering that the denominator in this price equation is the U.S. dollar, the end result seems clear – $20 will be but a way point in a steady march toward much higher levels – but it just might take a little longer than a lot of people would like

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Punish the Savers – Part 64

Among the many other oddities in our financial world that are now accepted as “normal”, future historians will be left to pass judgment on how, here in 2010,  U.S. monetary policy continues to punish the group that the nation needs most if it is to somehow restore balance to its money flows – savers.  This New York Times story takes up the issue:

Perversely, coming after a devastating financial crisis caused by companies and households that feasted on borrowing, ultralow interest rates are penalizing people who have paid down their debt and are now trying to save. It is also punishing those who rely on the proceeds of their nest eggs to pay the bills.

“It’s the whole point of low rates, to entice borrowing and discourage saving, but it means a massive wealth transfer from savers to borrowers,” said Greg McBride, a senior financial analyst at Bankrate.com. “It is a trend on steroids now because interest rates have been cut to the bone.”

For example, anyone keeping $500,000 in a 12-month certificate of deposit earning a rate of 1.5 percent annually — one of the best savings rates available nationally these days — would earn $7,500 a year, hardly enough to live on. Just three years ago, that same investment would have generated $26,250.

“You have spent your life being prudent, building a nest egg for your retirement, and now the returns are terrible,” said Todd E. Petzel, chief investment adviser at Offit Capital Advisors, a wealth advisory company in New York. “I am 58 years old. I know lots of my peers who are thinking of retiring, and they are scared to death.”

I really feel for a lot of these fifty-somethings and their elders who are just now learning how central bankers have stacked the deck against them and are, unjustifiably, as scared of owning gold as they are of outlasting their meager savings, now earning one percent.

Beige Book Fails to Slow Stock Rebound

The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book sprinkled a little cold water on the stock market rebound yesterday, but not nearly enough to keep buyers from bidding prices higher, a move that looks likely to continue today with the better than expected report on jobless claims.

New claims for unemployment insurance fell by 27,000, from an upwardly revised 478,000 to just 451,000. Who would have ever thought that stock investors would be cheering a number like this more than a year after the recession ended?

Fresh economic data has been few and far between this week, but next week will see the pace pick up sharply as a bevy of manufacturing reports will be released along with a look at how the consumer is faring via August retail sales and consumer sentiment.

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Thursday Morning Links

MUST READS
Obama plan gets cool reception – Washington Post
Fed: ‘Widespread Signs of Deceleration’ – Bloomberg
China shares fall on renewed property curb fears – AP
OECD: Global slowdown steeper than anticipated – MarketWatch
FDIC’s Bair warns of government “exposure” in mortgages – Reuters
Greece Says Bonds Now an `Opportunity’ as Budget Deficit Falls – Bloomberg
Mortgage Bankers Step Up Effort To Kill Fannie, Freddie – 24/7 Wall Street
Ireland breaks up Anglo Irish as EMU debt jitters return – Telegraph
Help for homeowners who haven’t missed a payment – CNN/Money
What Is President Obama’s Fiscal Message? – Baseline Scenario
Falling Rates Aid Debtors, but Hamper Savers – NY Times

MARKETS/INVESTING
Oil rises to near $75 amid US crude supply drop – AP
Gold steadies as signs of risk appetite reemerge – Reuters
Paulson’s Biggest Hedge Fund Said to Lose 11 Percent in 2010 – Bloomberg
Goldman: Short-Term Dollar Strength Followed By QE And A Plunge – Zero Hedge
After record rally, gold climbs down in India – Commodity Online
Drunken, Raucous Bond Market Is About to Be Ill – Bloomberg
Bulls should welcome an inevitable pullback – MarketWatch

ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/BANKING
No inflation means no recovery – MSN Money
Economists cut U.S. growth forecast again – Reuters
Nearly 5 Jobless Workers Per Opening in July – NY Times
Bank of England keeps monetary policy on hold – MarketWatch
China Inflation Date Change Triggers Rate Speculation – Bloomberg
Improvement in Home Value Depreciation Stalls in July – Zillow Blog
Housing’s cure? Higher mortgage rates! – Orange County Register
Double dip in home prices coming in 2011: Clear Capital – Housing Wire
Kocherlakota Backs Setting Floor on Fed Balance Sheet – BusinessWeek
Fed: ‘Widespread signs’ economy is slowing – CNN/Money
More stimulus needed for economy: Geithner – Reuters

 
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