REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

A Long and Winding Road to an REO

I don’t know. Was it really necessary for someone at the Brookings Institute to draw up this flowchart to show how you get from a delinquent mortage to an REO property?

Apparently so, based on this item at the WSJ Developments blog where the question was asked, “Where’s the Foreclosure Flood”. On that little green short sale box they note:

Banks are getting better about approving short sales, where a home is sold for less than the amount owed, even though the process is still far from seamless.

No. If there’s one thing that I can attest to, the short sale process is far from seamless…

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Greenspan, Fiat Money, and Gold

Former Fed chief Alan Greenspan’s comments at the Council of Foreign Relations yesterday continue to make news. First it was the idea that the 2001-2003 tax cuts should be allowed to expire, then came comments about the disappointing results of the stimulus spending. Today, an op-ed in the New York Sun has him sharing some thoughts on gold.

“Fiat money has no place to go but gold,” the former Fed chairman said at the Council, according to economist David Malpass, who quotes Mr. Greenspan in one of Mr. Malpass’ emails on the political economy. Mr. Malpass writes that the former chairman of the Federal Reserve’s board of governors was responding to a question in respect of why gold was hitting new highs.

Mr. Greenspan replied that he’d thought a lot about gold prices over the years and decided the supply and demand explanations treating gold like other commodities “simply don’t pan out,” as Mr. Malpass characterized Mr. Greenspan. “He’d concluded that gold is simply different,” Mr. Malpass wrote. At one point Mr. Greenspan spoke of how, during World War II, the Allies going into North Africa found gold was insisted on in the payment of bribes. Said the former Fed chairman: “If all currencies are moving up or down together, the question is: relative to what? Gold is the canary in the coal mine. It signals problems with respect to currency markets. Central banks should pay attention to it.

To which, forgive us, one can only say, “Now he tells us.” The fact is that if Mr. Greenspan governed the Fed with an eye on gold, it wasn’t a particularly steady eye.

This should provide a good chuckle for those of you who remember Greenspan’s comments about how monetary policy under his stewardship somehow “mimicked” a gold standard when prompted by Ron Paul and as detailed later in The Maestro Changes his Tune.

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The New NetNet

Here’s a quick plug for John Carney’s new blog over at CNBC called NetNet. I’ve not yet looked at it but I always liked John’s commentary when he was toiling away at The Business Insider and he was quite gracious to me via email in apologizing about the chart kerfuffle a while back (see Now That Chart Looks Familiar at the old blog).

I guess I should go have a look at what’s over there – it’s funny how reading material at CNBC.com can be so, so different than watching them on TV…

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Zombies in the News Again

It seems that, as we venture further into the post-2008 crash financial world, the word “zombie” is popping up more and more, two sightings to be found in just a cursory scan of the news this morning, zombie buildings in Spain as reported by the Wall Street Journal and this commentary about zombie banks by Jonathan Weil at Bloomberg.

Zombie Banks Have Us Right Where They Want Us


Here’s the kind of thing that passes for free enterprise now. Last month a fellow named Michael Carpenter, who is the chief executive officer of Ally Financial, got on a conference call with securities analysts and gushed with delight about the $3.5 billion price that General Motors had just agreed to pay for the subprime auto lender AmeriCredit. Based on that transaction, he proclaimed, Ally might be worth $30 billion.

GM, which owns a 6.7 percent stake in Ally, is Ally’s former parent.

“I love the AmeriCredit deal,” said Carpenter, whom some might remember from his days as the head of the securities firm Kidder Peabody. “I don’t have any doubt about our ability to repay the U.S. Treasury. So I think it’s great.”

The federal government so far has spent $17.2 billion to bail out Ally, the lender formerly known as GMAC Inc. Taxpayers hold a 56.3 percent stake in the company, which says it may hold an initial public offering next year if it can’t find a buyer.

What a spectacle. Here you had the CEO of a thrice-bailed- out zombie bank, drooling over how much a government-owned carmaker was going to pay for a publicly traded subprime lender, and using this price as a yardstick for his own bank’s paper worth. In a sane world, Ally would have been liquidated already. Any capital it’s able to raise is money that otherwise might go to more deserving enterprises.

Weil goes on to lament the propping up of the housing market, savers being punished with low interest rates, and  how we need to throw the bums in Washington out.

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The inventory at the popular iShares Silver Trust ETF (NYSE:SLV) has been rising sharply in recent days, commensurate with the surge in the price of the metal, and the “tonnes in the trust” is now within shouting distance of the all-time high of just over 9,500 tonnes seen back in late-2009 after an addition of some 37 tonnes yesterday.

In contrast, after new all-time highs for the gold price yesterday (more new highs coming this morning), the bullion held at the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSE:GLD) fell by about five tonnes, back down to levels associated with a gold price  that is about $100 lower.

As should be clear after looking at the chart above, there is only a tenuous link between inventory levels and prices, but the gold and silver holdings at these ETFs do provide a good indication of what’s on the mind of long-term investors.

Full Disclosure: Long gold and silver bullion.

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Thursday Morning Links

MUST READS
Warren to Unofficially Lead Consumer Agency – NY Times
Zombie Banks Have Us Right Where They Want Us – Bloomberg
Allure of Home Ownership Dims, Fannie Mae Survey Shows – WSJ
Geithner sharpens criticism of China’s economic policies – Washington Post
‘Bought And Paid For’: Obama Has ‘Unholy Alliance’ With Wall Street – HuffPost
Pew: 36% of public approves strategic default as an option – Housing Wire
Harvard Lobotomies And The Disgrace Of The Economics Profession – Zero Hedge
Borrowers Losing Their Homes Are Staying in Them Longer – American Banker
The two key housing problems – Calculated Risk
Home Price Double Dip Begins – CNBC

MARKETS/INVESTING
Gold price records all-time high close – SMH
Oil falls to near $75 on high crude supplies – AP
Stocks’ rise defies September track record – Washington Post
Man Vs. Machine: Tracing Trades Through Electronic Maze – CNBC
New Bank Regulations To Spur Demand for Government Bonds – Business Insider
Few takers for gold as prices soar – Commodity Online
Gold to Surge 50% to ‘Real’ Record? – CNBC
Gold stocks ride bull wave – Commodity Online

ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/BANKING
Wary consumers rule the wobbly recovery – MarketWatch
Greenspan: Fiscal Stimulus Worked Far Less Than Expected – WSJ
Rearview Mirror Is Where Economists See Future – Bloomberg
India Raises Interest Rates, Says Stance Near Normal – BusinessWeek
Zombie Buildings Shadow Spain’s Economic Future – WSJ
Surprise fall in UK retail sales – Telegraph
Desperate Measures: Home Sellers Continue Slashing Prices – WSJ
July home prices steady for first time in five months – Housing Wire
Banks take over record number of homes in August – Reuters
Fed face tough choices as economic recovery lags – Washington Post
Basel III: The Fatal Flaw – Baseline Scenario

 
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