There were no surprises in today’s Commerce Department report showing the U.S. economy expanded at a rate of 2.0 percent in the third quarter – that’s exactly what markets expected.

While two percent is a number that policymakers would much rather see from the inflation data – not the growth data – it looks quite a bit better than some of the more dismal projections over the summer, some of which approached zero percent growth or worse.
As shown below, the American consumer was again doing their part in the July-to-September period as real personal consumption expenditures grew at a 2.6 percent pace, contributing 1.8 percentage points to the overall gain as the other categories essentially canceled each other out.

The rising stock market – up 10 percent or more during the quarter – and some stability in home prices are said to have played a major role in convincing Americans to spend at the fastest pace since late-2006 when the housing bubble was still mostly inflated.
Personal consumption is surely not being driven by a healthy labor market or rising consumer confidence, both of which remain at recession levels with few indications of any change coming anytime soon.
Weakness in either stock prices (possible) or home prices (likely) in the period ahead would probably change how consumers feel about continuing to keep their wallets open and not for the better.











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Stable home market? Don’t they mean, the people who are staying in their homes without making payments diverting those funds to personal expenditures?
I think that’s just a tiny part of the boost in consumer spending. I remember trying to calculate it once and it came out to be a very small number. It’s probably a matter of millions and millions of people spending a little more since they feel a bit more secure with stocks going up and housing prices not going down … yet.
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Ah. Makes sense. Also, isn’t Medicare spending lumped into this personal consumption?
Dunno
I’ll wait for the post-election revisions. Q2 was eventually revised down 33 percent.
The 2010 midterm elections will be here, and most expect Republicans to make big gains in both chambers of Congress. While prevailing opinion holds the fact that GOP will take covering the House of Representatives, there are numerous dissenters among national political figures. The Senate outlook is all the more messy, but it is generally accepted that Republicans skin a steeper climb to adopt back the upper chamber.
I know you’re a whiz with all these statistics, but at some point don’t you question their a)validity and b) usefulness? 2%? Is anything compiled by the government going to be so accurate that a 2% change is useful anyway?
…Not to mention the idea of economic activity that is fueled by money created out of thin air or borrowing. I can really live it up with a $50,000 line of credit and house credits in vegas. But does that mean I was ever more affluent once I’ve spent it all and still owe them the money back? I merely had the illusion of wealth for a short time, at the expense of misery once it’s over. We’re just borrowing from the future to consume today. None of this is real or sustainable.