REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

I’ve noted this on a number of occasions and I seem to recall something in the comments section about this in recent weeks, but, today, David Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff went to the trouble of drafting up the new list of policy mandates for the Federal Reserve:

But the Fed Chairman is at least getting what he wants in the equity market. Recall what he said back then — “higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending. Increased spending will lead to higher incomes and profits that, in a virtuous circle, will further support economic expansion.”

So now the Fed has added a third mandate to its charter:

1. Full employment
2. Low and stable inflation
3. Higher equity valuation

The real question we should be asking is why Ben didn’t add this third policy objective back in 2007 and save us from a whole lot of pain over the next 18 months?

Well, two out of three ain’t bad, that is, unless you’re bothered by rising gasoline prices, medical costs that keep going up, and a bevy of other rising prices that the government’s measure of inflation seems to be unaffected by.

Tagged with:  






Consumer Sentiment Dips

The mood of the American consumer soured a bit early in the year as the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index slipped from 74.5 in December to 72.7 in the first of two readings for January. Obviously, the people being polled in this survey either haven’t been watching the stock market or don’t have a very large investment portfolio because, if they did, they would surely be more upbeat.

The gauge of current conditions sank from 85.3 to 79.8 while the expectations component rose from 67.5 to 68.2 and, perhaps the most significant aspect of this report was that inflation expectations rose from 3.0 percent to 3.3 percent. It would seem that more people watching the price at the pump rather than their stock portfolio is the primary reason for the very recent divergence of the two data series above.

Tagged with:  

Retail Sales Rise at Slowest Pace in 5 Months

The Census Bureau reported(.pdf) that U.S. retail sales rose 0.6 percent in December following average increases of 1.1 percent during the four prior months, perhaps a sign that consumers have released much of their “pent up demand” since last summer’s slowdown, a development that seems to be extending into the new year based on a Gallup poll released just yesterday indicating a sharp decline in early-January consumer spending.

December gains were paced by a 2.0 percent sales increase at building material & garden supply stores, gas station sales that rose 1.6 percent, and auto sales that were up 1.1 percent.  Declining categories included a 0.7 percent decline at general merchandise stores and 0.6 percent drops for electronics & appliances and food & beverages.

For all of 2010, retail sales rose 7.9 percent, the biggest gain in 11 years coming after two years of declining sales in both 2008 and 2009.

Tagged with:  

Consumer Prices Higher on Energy Costs

The Labor Department reported that consumer prices saw their biggest increase in 18 months, up 0.5 percent in December for a full-year 2010 reading of 1.5 percent.

Recent gains were driven by rising energy prices as “core” inflation – excluding food and energy – rose just 0.1 percent last month and registered the smallest annual gain since record keeping began 52 years ago at just 0.8 percent.

(more…)

Tagged with:  

Friday Morning Links

MUST READS
Plan B for the Euro Zone – Economist
Uncle Sam Wants His AAA Rating – NY Times
China’s central bank lifts reserve ratio – MarketWatch
Volcker rule tests new systemic risk council – Reuters
Goldman Sachs Reveals Fresh Crisis Losses – Financial Times
‘Europe Has to Stop Appearing Like a Headless Chicken’ – Spiegel
Trichet warns of higher inflation in euro zone – Irish Times
Why The Debt Ceiling Debate Is Necessary – Net Net
The debt ceiling and default – Economist
Cautiously Optimistic Into 2011 – Credit Writedowns
Illinois is No Peter Pan – aucontrarian
New Hit to Strapped States – WSJ

MARKETS/INVESTING
Oil falls to near $91 on weak US jobs market – AP
Gold slips below $1,370/oz after China move – Reuters
Gasoline’s prepping for a return to $4 a gallon – MarketWatch
Bernanke: Fed’s actions led to stock rally – CNN/Money
Moody’s warns stimulus could trample Treasuries – Fortune
Gold at over $1,600 feasible before year-end – GFMS – Mineweb
Pack Mentality Grips Hedge Funds – WSJ

ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/BANKING
Consumer Spending Down Sharply in January – Gallup
Farm Belt Gets Some Help From Food Prices – WSJ
A recovery with jobs and housing left behind – Housing Wire
Inflation climbs to 8.43%; rate hike by RBI on the cards – Deccan Herald
Europe fears motives of Chinese super-creditor – Telegraph
Portugal Fights Desperately to Regain Trust – Spiegel
The Foreclosure Dump – Olick, CNBC
The 5 states where housing will recover first – MarketWatch
Bernanke: No housing recovery before GSE revamp – Housing Wire
Bernanke Sees Growth, but Small Firms Key – WSJ
Geithner warns of future intervention – MarketWatch
Has The Fed Lit Inflation Fuse? – IBD

 
© 2010-2011 The Mess That Greenspan Made