Time and again you hear pundits say that what the U.S. experienced in the last decade was a terrible boom/bust cycle for the housing and credit markets. But then, almost in the same breath, they oftentimes say the nation must do whatever it can to get those eight million jobs back that were “lost” when the housing bubble burst.
But, does that make any sense?
Were those jobs really “lost” or should a good many of them have never existed in the first place?
Anyone with a rudimentary understanding of economics would conclude that, since many of the jobs created early in the decade were related to housing – construction workers, mortgage brokers, etc. – that they won’t be coming back anytime soon, at least not as long as the housing bubble remains “popped” (which is a pretty good bet over the next few years).
Of course, since the early-2000s housing boom was, effectively, the cure for the stock market boom that went bust at the turn of the century, one could argue that what the government and central bank need to do is create a new and different asset bubble.
But, so far, Fed Chief Ben Bernanke and crew seem to be shooting blanks.
In lieu of another asset bubble, maybe the nation ought to collectively lower its expectations about the labor market rather than harping about the unemployment rate all that time.
Hey, the U.S. had a pretty good run there in the 80s and 90s as one credit-fueled expansion followed another and then we had one last hurrah seven or eight years ago when even the nation’s brightest economists thought we were all going to be wealthy forever as a result of perpetually rising home prices.
But, now it seems pretty clear that we’ve run out of bubbles and maybe we should get used to the idea that the jobless rate will be high for a long time to come (think Europe) and that many of those eight million “lost” jobs were like that mid-2000s housing wealth – fleeting.
In fact, we should all probably stop calling them “lost” jobs and begin referring to them as what they really were – temporary jobs.
Temporary jobs that lasted as long as high home prices did.
Of course, this is a tough sell for politicians visiting Main Street during this election year. In fact, the idea that those jobs aren’t coming back and that there’s nothing on the horizon to replace them might just dim even the most popular elected official’s chances at holding onto their seat and that’s probably why you won’t hear it.
Some politicians like to say “We need to level with the American people”.
Well, now would be a good time to level with the American people about jobs.
When looking at the data, it seems clear that, absent another Federal Reserve sponsored asset bubble, things don’t look good for the labor market.
Those of you who were around at the time might recall that Asha Bangalore at Northern Trust was one of the first to notice the increase in housing-related jobs early in the last decade, noting back in 2005 (see this related post at the time) that a whopping 43 percent of net payroll gains over the four prior years were housing related.
As shown below, that proved to be the culmination of a decade long boom in construction jobs (only interrupted for a few years as the internet bubble burst) and, relative to the U.S. population, we’re now back to levels that we’ve seen before after similar property busts in 1976, 1982, and 1991.

More than two million construction jobs were lost in 2008 and 2009, but that doesn’t mean these jobs should now come back since the recession ended – not until another property boom gets underway and, given the length of the last boom, that may take some time.
A similar story is seen, for example, in retail sales and finance where payrolls declined by a combined 1.5 million beginning in 2007 as shown below.

Clearly, while a growing population will require more clerks to ring up groceries and life’s other essentials – that’s part of the reason why retail trade jobs have rebounded – there’s no reason to think that all the cashier jobs that were created six or seven years ago (i.e., when everyone was out spending their home equity as fast as it grew) will be coming back.
As for payroll levels in the financial industry, we may have seen a generational high at 8.3 million back in 2007 because, if there’s one thing that we should have learned over the last few years, it is that we’d probably be better off with fewer people working in finance.
Just these three categories – construction, retail trade, and finance – account for nearly half of the eight million jobs that were “lost” in recent years, yet these same groups account for only about one-fifth of the entire U.S. workforce.
These jobs weren’t “lost”, in the sense that they’ll somehow be found again, that is, unless Ben Bernanke inflates another asset bubble.









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Tim,
I am glad your focusing on real fundamentals. There is not going to be reforms until people realize that the fundamental shift started because of the information technology revolution and housing bubble just masked the loss of jobs from the all efficiency that we gained.
Efficiency plus all the outsourcing and shift in manufacturing overseas.
Sometime it’s easy to forget those. IT enabled outsourcing and logistics but even without IT, Walmart would find a way to get cheap Asian good here.
Not if we enforced our own labor, safety, and pollution regulations on goods imported here.
Not if we stopped using taxpayer dollars to pay for “muscle” in the form of a massive global military presence to protect the interests of global multi-national corporations.
Not if we refused to use our taxpayer funded court system and faith in our legal system to enforce contracts in other nations.
Not if the cost of the energy needed to transport products around the world wasn’t subsidized by US taxpayers in the form of aid/bribes/wars fought for access to cheap oil.
Not if in the absence of good jobs for their customers they would have nobody to buy the cheap goods. Instead, we use “social spending” to rob those with jobs and hand their money to those w/o good jobs so they can go shop at Walmart. Doubt it? What do you think sales at Walmart would look like if social spending was at the levels of 50 years ago? They’d be boarded up.
I like how they say, “The economy would have to create 300,000 new jobs every month for the next three years to make back the eight million jobs that were lost during the recession”.
Ain’t gonna happen.
The problem is that we have too many people, and not enough useful work for them to do. At least, not enough useful work that pays a decent wage.
How do you solve this problem? Do you make up pretend jobs for them to do? Well, government bureaucracy is full of pretend jobs. But austerity is the word of the day…
Do you inflate a new bubble? I highly doubt that would fly today.
Do you start a new war?
I’m not sure what the best path out of this mess is. We will reach a point where it’s just not possible to create enough work for enough people to keep unemployment low. We must either buff the social safety net…or just let people starve.
Low interest rates are causing job losses in the government sector (because of the need to increase pension funding) and quite likely in the general economy because of the lack of yield on savings. This economy isn’t going anywhere until the Fed raises rates.
Also, in additional to your correctly noted bubble in housing jobs, let’s not forget the stimulus caused by the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. . .
I think that low rates is what is driving the recovery, as companies can strengthen their balance sheets, take in new projects due to low financing and eliminating old debt and replacing with cheaper debt, so if US companies do well, then they will start hiring. The only problem is that they will offshore more and then the people will have nothing to show for lower rates.
[...] Hunt) • Dwelling In Uncertainty (Hussman Funds) • About Those Eight Million “Lost” Jobs… (Tim Iacono) • Factbox: What happens if Greece defaults? (Reuters) see also Here’s how much Austrian banks [...]
Not a bad start, but there is another step. Most of these financial related jobs aren’t coming back any time soon. But what about all the manufacturing jobs lost 2001-5 and those made history since about 2008? Never mind the nebulous jobs, lets look at the real jobs.
Related:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-18/few-u-s-cities-recoup-jobs-as-economy-rebounds-from-recession.html
“More than 90 percent of U.S. metropolitan areas have failed to recoup the jobs lost during the recession that ended in 2009, a report found…”
[...] Hunt) • Dwelling In Uncertainty (Hussman Funds) • About Those Eight Million “Lost” Jobs… (Tim Iacono) • Factbox: What happens if Greece defaults? (Reuters) see also Here’s how much Austrian [...]
I agree the term “lost jobs” is wrong, but leaving it at that isn’t quite correct either.
The easy money credit created the WRONG jobs, not just temporary ones. They were temporary because they were malinvestments.
Without the easy money, jobs still get created. They are just the “right” ones. Ones that take into proper account the REAL time value of money.
But cheap credit is not the only way you distort and damage an economy. Trying to build a sound “economy” on consumption of cheap foreign made goods and services by a populace that does little productive work is just as futile. Think about that next time you see businesses like “softball academy”, “cheerleader classes”, “closet organizing service” or even large companies that exist solely to provide cheap chinese manufacturered gizmos to the chronically bored who don’t have health insurance but “own” $800 phones and tablets they use for updating facebook and twitter.
Hi,
I just want to make 3 points.
1- America in the last 30 yrs have invested heavily in technology and research across the board. eg. drone fighters, genetics, robotics etc.
2- America is yet to put this knowledge which only it has into commerical use
3- technology is the driver of wealth. When the USA begins the ‘new economy’, old economies eg. the emerging chinese one, would be obsolete.
think about it.
Signed.
Ideas from an Aussie Guy.
Tim,
‘Think Europe’ regarding jobless rates is perception / imagination rather than fact. Europe’s unemployment rates (with the exception of some especially hard hit countries) are well below the US rates, see the harmonized unemployment rates http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/harmonised-unemployment-rates_2074384x-table6.
Interesting… Here’s the latest data from The Economist:
http://www.economist.com/node/21543194
Euro area unemployment currently at 10.3% – from 4% in Austria to 23% in Spain.
[...] Re: Obama Presidency 2012 Originally Posted by Vastrwc And as your graph points out, the worst hiring performance following a recession in decades. Don't you read this crap before you post it? You can find some answers about the slow rate of job growth here About Those Eight Million “Lost” Jobs… | The Mess That Greenspan Made [...]
[...] Re: Obama Presidency 2012 Originally Posted by Vastrwc And as your graph points out, the worst hiring performance following a recession in decades. Don't you read this crap before you post it? You can find some answers about the slow rate of job growth here About Those Eight Million “Lost” Jobs… | The Mess That Greenspan Made [...]
Thanks for stating this. I think the topic has turned though. We’re now onto the “Reserve Army of the Unemployed” which is an intentional tactict to keep wages low by capitalists.
I agree with you, I just think the argument has changed and this is about 18 months too late.
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