REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

Ben Bernanke is the Next Arthur Burns

In yet another follow-up to yesterday’s Bernanke’s Disingenuous Message to Savers, it certainly looks like Fed Chief Ben Bernanke is the second coming of Arthur Burns when looking at real interest rates (i.e., the Fed Funds rate minus year-over-year inflation).

Note that the 2012-2014 period assumes the current 3.0 percent inflation rate and zero percent Fed Funds rate continue for three more years – it might move up a little, but not much. Also, that little red sliver in 1978-1979 represents G. William Miller’s tenure as Fed chief – it hardly seemed worth it to put his name up there.







A couple of items related to yesterday’s Bernanke’s Disingenuous Message to Savers come via this Reuters report that chronicles the difficulty older, fixed-income investors are having under Fed Chief Ben Bernanke’s policy of freakishly low interest rates and this item at The Aleph Blog that captures my sentiments fairly well.

Bernanke Does Not Understand Savings
Twice in his press conference yesterday, Bernanke showed that he was out of touch with average Americans. He argued that average people could keep up with a 2% increase in the price level by investing in stocks and (presumably short-term) bonds.

(Speaking to The Bernank)

I’m sorry, Ben, but ya gotsta come down from the uneducated ivory tower and wallow in the mud wit da restov us. There are three problems with what you said:

- It’s hard to earn 2% (after-tax) consistently when the Fed funds rate is zero.

- Only the top 20% of the wealthy have enough assets to keep themselves afloat using the asset markets. Most people would like to do something to protect themselves from inflation, but lack the means to do so.

- Average people do not invest, they save at financial intermediaries like banks, S&Ls, and life insurers. Fed policy kills rates for savers. They will not become investors, because they lack the knowledge to do so.

I am again sorry, Ben, because your policies discriminate against the poor, and the lower middle class. Yes, the rich and the upper middle-class clever can escape the penalties stemming from your policies, but the lower-middle class and the poor can’t.

Think of it this way: your policies are making it more palatable for average people to buy gold, because the alternatives in savings are lousy. If there is no income, why not grab safety from inflation?

Author David Merkel then suggests a comparison to Arthur Burns, one of the worst Fed Chairman ever, a subject that will be taken up in the next item that appears here.

U.S. Economy Grows at 2.8% Pace in Q4

The Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the fourth quarter, a slightly slower pace than expected.

This is the first of three estimates for the period and marks the best growth rate in a year-and-a-half following a reading of 1.8 percent in the third quarter. But, don’t be surprised if the most recent data is revised lower since downward revisions have been the norm in recent quarters, the third quarter data starting out at a similar level – a 2.5 percent rate – when it was initially reported.

The bulk of the overall gain (more than 1.9 percentage points of the 2.8 percent figure) came from rising inventories and, since this category is subject to heavy revisions in the second estimate, there is more reason to think that GDP could be revised lower next month.

Personal consumption made a positive contribution of 1.5 percentage points, primarily the purchase of durable goods, and government spending subtracted 0.9 percentage points while net exports were a small negative.

Faster growth to close out 2011 ended a sluggish year as the economy grew by just 1.7 percent, down from 3.0 percent in 2010 after contraction in both 2008 and 2009.

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Roach: “Zero Bound Until 2025″

Not surprisingly, Morgan Stanley’s Stephen Roach doesn’t think much of the idea of perpetual ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) as part of an ongoing policy by the Fed and he talks to Bloomberg’s Tom Keene on this subject and others while in Davos, Switzerland.

Roach says that, along with many other Western central bankers, Fed Chief Ben Bernanke is “betting the ranch on open-ended QE and zero interest rates” that, throughout history, have only been used as emergency measures, not long-term policy.

Friday Morning Links

MUST READS
Greece debt talks ‘close to deal’ – BBC
For Greece, the Outlook Is Still Grim – NY Times
Nightmare of disorderly default focuses minds on Greece – Reuters
BIS: Banks Reduce French, Italian, Spanish Lending – Bloomberg
Merkel Refuses Role of Rescuer in Euro Crisis – Spiegel
Italy easily raises $14.5 billion in auctions – AP
EU and US economic leaders spar at Davos – Channel News Asia
Dueling Ghosts of Past Economic Calamities – Real Clear Markets
Time To Move Away From Major U.S. Cities? – End of the American Dream
Retirement in America is ‘endangered’ – MarketWatch
Is Obama’s ‘Economic Populism’ for Real? – Taibblog
China: The paradox of prosperity – Economist

MARKETS/INVESTING
Oil hovers near $100 amid Iran tensions – AP
Gold set for biggest rise in eight weeks after Fed – Reuters
Market Too Bullish? Why Some Pros Are Getting Out – CNBC
Iran Set to Turn Off Oil Supply to Europe – Spiegel
In Punishing Year for Hedge Funds, Biggest One Thrived – DealBookg
India states ‘gold for oil’ deal with Iran as speculative – Bullion Street
Hold gold and silver and prepare for junior mining stock mania – Mineweb
Gold prices to average $1450, silver $26 in 2012: Natixis – Commodity Online
Barclays: Gold to break $2,000/oz by Q3 2012 – Commodity Online
Gold’s Rally To Be Short-Lived – CPM Group – Kitco

ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/BANKING
Economists vs. Americans – WSJ
Jobs, Jobs and Cars – Kruman, NY Times
Economies Need the Invisible Hand of a Gardener – Bloomberg
China’s very mysterious economic data – Telegraph
Japan prices fall, mild deflation to persist – Reuters
Unemployment in Spain Rises to 15-Year High of 22.9% – Bloomberg
Investors fear mounting losses in Portugal as second rescue looms – Telegraph
China Home Prices Must Fall 30% to Reach ‘Reasonable’ Level – Bloomberg
Central Bank Balance Sheet as Percent of GDP: Fed, ECB, BOJ, BOE – Mish
Lacker: Fed May Raise Rates Before Late 2014 to Stop Inflation – Bloomberg
Is the Fed Undermining the Recovery? – Time
On Opaque Transparency – The Aleph Blog

 
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