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Friday Morning Links

On February 24, 2012, in Uncategorized, by Tim

MUST READS
Gas prices rise 12 cents this week – CNN/Money
Europe Faces Pressure as G-20 Mulls IMF Role – Bloomberg
Argentine advice for Greece: ‘Default Now!’ – RT News
An Agreement That Few Believe – Comstock Partners
European Banks May Tap ECB for $629 Billion Cash – Bloomberg
German showdown with IMF looms as Bundestag blocks rescue funds – Telegraph
Why Won’t The Fed Talk To Financial Reform Advocates? – Baseline Scenario
Current Housing Bust Much Worse Than Great Depression – The Big Picture
Bank of America stops selling mortgages to Fannie Mae – Housing Wire
Why the mortgage settlement is a fair deal – CNN/Money
Is the Smart Money Heading for the Sidelines? – NetNet
Mean Reversion – EconomPicData

MARKETS/INVESTING
Oil rises to fresh 9-month highs above $108 – AP
Gold holds near $1,780/oz, eyes second monthly gain – Reuters
Why bonds are risky right now for your portfolio – Globe & Mail
Why U.S. Treasuries Won’t Always Be a Haven – Bloomberg
Inflation Expectations & Stocks Still Moving In Lockstep – Capital Spectator
How short and long term players will combine for a gold price increase – Mineweb
India to import 5000 tonnes of silver, price to exceed $60/oz – Mineweb
Gold climbs nearly 90 times in 100 years – BullionStreet
Fight the Fed with silver and gold – MSN Money
Great day for gold – MarketWatch

ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/BANKING
Why the U.S. Economy Could Go Haywire – TrimTabs
The return of schools of thought in macroeconomics – voxeu
Atlanta Fed Survey Finds Long-Term Inflation Worry – WSJ
UK GDP growth for 2011 revised down to 0.8% – Guardian
Germany Isolated over Resistance to Expanding Euro Bailout – Spiegel
Greece’s Lenders Have The Right To Seize National Gold Reserves – GoldCore
Bank of Canada: Home Price Decline May Cause Consumer Spending Shock – Bloomberg
Comments on Existing Home Inventory – Calculated Risk
Ranieri: The Case for Converting Foreclosures to Rentals – WSJ
Republican House Bill Would Strip US Fed’s Jobs Mandate – CNBC
The Bernanke Uncertainty Principle – Macro Rants
Why We Can’t Believe the Fed – CFR

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Is that It for Consumer Confidence?

On February 23, 2012, in Commodities, Economy, by Tim

Along with the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey and the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index, Gallup’s latest survey of economic confidence has recently reached a peak as depicted below, one that is not likely to be reached again as long as gasoline prices continue to rise.

Like the other surveys, recent readings for the Gallup poll are more often associated with recessions than recoveries. We’ll probably find out this spring whether Americans’ dour mood has been justified or if the economic recovery really is as good as it looks.

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It’s Now All Gas Prices, All the Time

On February 23, 2012, in Commodities, by Tim

It seems rising pump prices and an election year are a potent combination as all sorts of people are now commenting on the price of gas, from President Obama all the way down.

What the nation’s politicians wouldn’t give to see signs like the one below this summer as the electorate mulls over who’s deserving of public office and who’s not…

Why? That’s pretty simple.

As goes the price of gasoline, so goes the economy.

As goes the economy, so goes the fate of many incumbents.

And, right now, the trajectory of the price at the pump does not bode well for the latter.

The automobile club AAA said the national average price for a gallon of gasoline jumped 3.3 cents just last night to $3.61 and, this morning, the Energy Department will  release their weekly update on gas prices that will indicate a similar move higher from last week’s $3.52 average.

Sometimes it makes you long for those days in late-2008 when gas prices tumbled to $1.62 a gallon. Of course, back then, the downside to low gas prices was that many thought the world was coming to an end…

With the cost of petrol at a record high for this time of the year, more predictions of $4 a gallon gas are being heard and, with prices already over that mark in parts of the country, $5 signs and $100 fill-ups could be the norm in places like California and New York.

That, and more stories like these, will make voters rather grumpy going into November.

Gas price surge: Up 10% this year – CNN/Money
Obama goes on offense over high gasoline prices – Reuters
Price of gasoline could determine Obama’s fate – MarketWatch
Dem leader Pelosi blames Wall Street for spike in gas prices – The Hill
Gasoline Prices Are Not Rising, the Dollar Is Falling – Forbes
Fear of Iran is inflating gas prices – CNN/Money
Goldman Goes Long WTI – Zero Hedge

All the intrigue is there – everything from the impact on a fledgling economic recovery to a blame game that runs the gamut from Wall Street to environmentalists.

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Another Interesting Day Ahead for Gold

On February 23, 2012, in Commodities, by Tim

It should be another fun day for gold traders after yesterday’s remarkable late day $25 an ounce surge that occurred as other risk assets were reversing course and heading lower. It appears that resistance levels near $1,800 are being put to the test as traders weigh the possibility of another jaunt higher, details provided in this report at SFO.

And to think that Warren Buffett could care less whether the gold price is $200 an ounce or $2,000. On that subject, Bud Conrad’s  Ben Graham’s Curse on Gold provided an interesting theory for why the Oracle from Omaha has no used for the metal – his mentor, Benjamin Graham (of The Intelligent Investor fame), never lived during a time when gold traded freely.

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Thursday Morning Links

On February 23, 2012, in Uncategorized, by Tim

MUST READS
EU says eurozone economy to shrink in 2012 – BBC
Fitch downgrades Greece on debt swap plan – Reuters
Greek plan could mean exile from investors -Washington Post
ECB’s Mario Draghi magic corrupts bond markets – Telegraph
Price of gasoline could determine Obama’s fate – MarketWatch
Obama goes on offense over high gasoline prices – Reuters
Dem leader Pelosi blames Wall Street for spike in gas prices – The Hill
With gasoline demand falling, why do prices keep rising? – McClatchy
Gasoline Prices Are Not Rising, the Dollar Is Falling – Forbes
Fear of Iran is inflating gas prices – CNN/Money
Crude oil and gasoline prices – Econbrowser
Goldman Goes Long WTI – Zero Hedge

MARKETS/INVESTING
Oil falls to $106 after US crude supply jump – AP
Gold pauses, monetary easing hopes support – Reuters
Stocks Sputter as Investors Seek Catalyst – CNBC
What the Hedge Funds are Buying – Reformed Broker
Is bad timing the reason for hedge funds’ underperformance? – Sober Look
Another phase in the Greek tragedy – it could lose all its gold! – Mineweb
Rogers: Gold to rise much higher this decade, do not sell – Economic Times
Western central banks – more debt, Asian central banks – more gold! – Mineweb
Central banks to retain pole position in gold rally – Bullion Street
Great Day For Gold – MarketWatch

ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/BANKING
That Darned Output Gap! – Decline of the Empire
Weighing the risks to the inflation outlook – Macroblog
China risks economic crisis if no reforms: report – Channel News Asia
German Business Confidence Hit 7-Month High in February – Bloomberg
‘EU Has Not Yet Faced the Whole Sad Truth About Greece’ – Spiegel
UK housing market heading for ‘lost decade’ – Telegraph
Home prices at lowest point in more than 10 years – CNN/Money
Housing’s Dilemma: There’s Not Enough To Buy – CNBC
Realtors Slam Obama Foreclosure-Rental Plan – WSJ
Is Gold Money? Don’t Ask Ben Bernanke – Resource Investor
Federal Open Market Committee forecasts: Guesses or guidance? – voxeu
Burned before, Fed officials cautious on rebound – Reuters

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Existing Home Sales Rise, Prices Fall

On February 22, 2012, in Housing, by Tim

The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes rose 4.3 percent last month, from a downwardly revised annual rate of 4.38 million in December to 4.57 million in January, and the inventory of unsold homes was down, along with home prices.

The months of supply metric fell from 6.4 months to 6.1 months, the lowest level since the economic recovery began, as overall inventory dropped 0.4 percent to 2.31 million units.

As expected, prices continued their descent during the winter months where the share of purchases by bargain hunting investors grows, the median home price falling 4.6 percent for the month, 2.0 percent lower on a year-over-year basis.

Foreclosures and short sales accounted for 35 percent of all January sales, up from 32 percent the month before, and the share of sales to investors rose from 21 percent in December to 23 percent with all-cash sales unchanged at a 31 percent share.

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