Well, next Friday’s labor report should be interesting as more signs emerge that the U.S. economy is not as healthy as it looks due to an unusually warm winter and odd seasonal adjustment factors resulting from the 2008-2009 recession. The latest evidence comes in this Gallup unemployment survey that shows the jobless rate going back up in February.

The differences between the adjusted/unadjusted and Gallup/BLS data are all rather complicated, but, one thing seems certain – the jobless rate as reported by the Labor Department is not going to go down again from its level of 8.3 percent in January. It could jump just a few tenths of a percentage point or to as high as 9 percent.