REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

Back in Time, Lost Decades, etc.

Using a variety of economic indicators, this item in The Economist’s Daily Chart section provide a depiction of how economies around the world have fared in recent years, from the point of view of how far the Great Recession has set them back.

No big surprise there with Greece taking down the top … er, bottom … spot, but the U.S. coming in third with economic conditions set back to late-2001, is a bit of a shocker. Germany has recovered nicely from the recession and their position relative to Greece goes a long way in explaining why the Greek bailout has been so difficult.

My guess is that a chart depicting the amount of new debt taken on prior to the bust would result in  about the same country order as the upper-left graphic above.

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China Cuts Reserve Requirements

China’s central bank cutting bank reserve ratios on Saturday in order to spur lending and boost economic growth was one of the weekend’s major stories, that is, along with more Middle East geopolitical turmoil and surging oil prices … perhaps they’re all connected.

Reserve requirements will be reduced from 21.0 percent to 20.5 percent for large banks, leaving China with what are still some of the highest bank reserve ratios in the world. Wikipedia provides a good discussion of this subject that includes the following caveat to the official reserve ratio of 10 percent here in the U.S.:

Effective December 27, 1990, a liquidity ratio of zero has applied to CDs, savings deposits, and time deposits, owned by entities other than households, and the Eurocurrency liabilities of depository institutions. Deposits owned by foreign corporations or governments are currently not subject to reserve requirements.

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There’s Gold in Them Weddings

I’ve read stories about the role of gold in Indian weddings for years now, but this 60 Minutes segment the other day put the matter into a little better context, though it would have been nice if they’d focused more on the weddings of ordinary people rather than focusing so much on how the fabulously wealthy conduct theirs.

One thing is certain – those Indians are crazy about their gold. Even at $1,700 an ounce. They’re also crazy about arranged marriages – I knew the percentage was high, but was kind of surprised to hear the figure at 75 percent. What’s the divorce rate there?

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[Following are excerpts from the current issue of the Weekend Update at Iacono Research.]

Despite CME Group (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) lowering margin rates for futures accounts, a stronger trade-weighted dollar spurred by safe haven buying due to Greece’s latest sovereign debt troubles sent precious metals prices sharply lower on Friday.

Before the late-week sell-off, the gold price had tested the previous week’s multi-month high while silver reached a fresh three-month high as China continues to be the most important story for precious metals markets in 2012, speculation growing about how much gold their central bank is buying and how high retail gold and silver sales will rise this year.

For the week, the gold price fell almost four dollars, from $1,725.90 an ounce to $1,722.10, as the silver price dropped eight cents– from $33.67 an ounce to $33.59. The yellow metal is now up 9.9 percent for the year, but down 10.4 percent from its 2011 high, and silver has risen 20.6 percent in 2012, down 32.1 percent from its peak last spring.

Despite its “safe haven” reputation, over the short-term, gold continues to move with other risk assets when investors become skittish and seek safety in the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries, almost exclusively. Such was the case on Friday, as elected officials in Greece resigned their posts in protest of austerity measures that they thought went too far, imperiling the next $170 billion in bailout money needed to avoid a debt default next month that would plunge the area into chaos.

[To continue reading this story, please visit Seeking Alpha.]

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Inflation Rebounds in China

Overshadowed by other news today – the Greek debt deal, the U.S. housing foreclosure deal, and the Bank of England deal to print up another 50 billion pounds or so for the greater good – comes word of a surprise increase in the inflation rate in China as detailed in this Reuters report and as depicted below.

Of course, you never know what to believe in the economic data from China, but, if the government says inflation is 4.5 percent, you can bet that it’s at least that high. There too, food prices are rising at an uncomfortable pace and one possible solution that policymakers should look into is to encourage the populace to buy more iPads and less pork.

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Debt ‘Round the World

Today’s Daily Chart from the The Economist is chock-full of fun and interesting data on public and private sector debt around the world and, based on the graphic below, us Anglo-Saxons are clearly outpacing the rest of the world when it comes to household debt.

Of course, Japan is the unquestioned leader in government debt – about double that of second place Italy – but, flipping through the tabs of this interactive graphic reveals that, overall, the U.K. is the worst of the lot … it’s a good thing they can print their own money.

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