Bonds | timiacono.com

Amid all the hubbub about the implications of the Greek election and snowpmageddon on the East Coast we are reminded that there is a Federal Reserve meeting this week, during which central bank policy makers are sure to talk about the location of the dots and the shape of the curves in the graphic below from this story at the Financial Times.

Notwithstanding the fact that Fed funds futures are notoriously unreliable for saying much of anything relevant about the future of the Fed funds rate (though they’re  not nearly as bad as the Fed’s own projections in recent years), the point of this story is a good one, namely, that the brain trust at the central bank will be giving due consideration to a major re-think of the whole idea of a June “lift off” for short-term interest rates, though they’re not likely to share much about that discussion with the rest of us.

Given the global economic headwinds (everywhere but in the U.S., or so it seems), the bond market certainly isn’t expecting a rate hike anytime soon as yields have plunged anew and the Fed is surely not anxious for a repeat of Greenspan’s mid-2000’s “conundrum” that led to the events of 2008-2009. Things are getting interesting for Ms. Yellen.

Anticipation

My favorite chart from the Jeffrey Gundlach/Doubleline Capital presentation the other day.

This one was pretty good as well – a stroll down memory lane at the last interest rate normalization campaign by ‘Ol Greenie that was affectionately called “Baby Steps“.

Faber: “A Bubble In Everything, Everywhere”

Marc Faber, the purveyor of the Gloom, Boom, and Doom report, talks about the current course of asset prices and how things might end badly someday as the Federal Reserve contemplates raising interest rates and the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen.

As detailed in Dr. Marc Faber’s three bold predictions for 2014, his crystal ball gazing early in the year doesn’t look particularly prescient at the moment:

1. The market will continue to decline from its November high of 1,813
2. Best shorts for 2014: Facebook, Tesla, Twitter, Netflix, and Veeva Systems
3. Best longs for 2014: Gold, gold shares, and Vietnamese stocks

It is, however, worth pointing out that 2014 is a long way from being over.

Stocks or Bonds: Which Has It Right?

Much has been made about the rather disturbing trend this year for the price of just about every asset class to go up. As shown below, stocks and bonds normally go in opposite directions over long stretches of time, however, that’s not been the case this year.

In fact, 2014 has, so far, proved to be quite the outlier in many respects for how stock and bond prices have moved for reasons that should be clear below.

(more…)

Page 1 of 191234510...Last »
© 2010-2011 The Mess That Greenspan Made