REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

Nightly Business Report on Gold

I was taken aback by the bullishness in the lead story on the Nightly Business Report last night as, apparently, the network hadn’t gotten the memo from central banks and economists that the barbarous relic was a barbarous relic once again, that is, after the price had tumbled almost $400 an ounce as of yesterday morning from its early-September high.

Watch the full episode. See more Nightly Business Report.

Admittedly, Joe Foster of Van Eck Global is just talking the firm’s book, but it seems odd to hear anyone say on network television in the U.S. that, with the gold price at $1,600 an ounce, you should be a buyer.

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Back Up the Truck for Silver

Normally, I’m not a big believer in conspiracy theories, but recent events really have me scratching my head.

Last week, equity markets sold off and, as has often been the case in recent years, futures traders sold winning positions in precious metals to cover margin calls as a result of losses elsewhere.

There’s nothing new about that.

But, on Friday, with the plummeting gold price already down more than $200 from its early-September high and with the price of silver in a virtual free fall as traders suddenly realize that, at times like this, it’s much more of an industrial metal than a monetary one, CME Group decided announce a new round of margin rate hikes – some 21 percent for gold and 16 percent for silver.

This was followed by a similar move by the Shanghai metals exchange on Monday morning amid word that officials are about to quadruple the capacity of the EFSF (European Financial Stability Fund) from about 440 billion euros to over 2 trillion euros.

Now, maybe it’s just me, but it’s easy to think that the timing of those margin rate hikes was more than just a coincidence.

Read the rest of this article at Seeking Alpha.

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Pondering the Gold Price Decline

Barron’s economics editor Gene Epstein talks about the recent sell-off in both gold and silver and wonders about what might lie ahead for the metals.

For someone who has been somewhat dismissive of the commodities boom in recent years (see Who’s Behind the Commodities Boom? from early-2008), this is a rather bullish outlook.

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Margin Calls Whack Gold

You hear a lot about traders selling gold to meet margin calls in order to cover other losses being a major factor in the nosedive for the yellow metal. Here’s a graphic example of how that’s worked recently as, on at least three occasions in the last few weeks, a big sell-off in stocks is followed by a sell-off in gold the next day.

On September 9th and 21st, while equity markets were plunging, the gold price held up fairly well, but, on the 10th and 22nd the gold price tumbled, margin calls for the prior days’ losses presumably being a big  factor. Of course, the gold price doesn’t always fall the day afters stocks do, but on the big moves down, there appears to be a high correlation.

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What’s New in Elko, Nevada?

Taking a quick break from the market madness (hey, the 30-year Treasury yield is up 8 basis points today – to 2.86 percent!) to have a look at this LA Times story about Elko, Nevada seemed like a good thing to do this morning as we’ve been through that area a number of times in recent years, always finding it difficult to get a hotel room.

Elko, Nev., takes the gold boom with a grain of doubt

Mining firms are hiring, but the city government, and even mine employees, are wary. Only a decade ago, tanking gold prices saddled the region with abandoned homes and tarnished dreams.

This far-flung capital of Nevada’s Gold Belt is booming — very, very reluctantly.

With the price of gold in the stratosphere, the mine-chiseled corner of northeastern Nevada is scrambling to fill thousands of jobs, while newcomers to the barren region beg for somewhere to sleep. The motels: sold out. The apartments: good luck. The RV parks: get in line.

But you’ll find little of the gold-rush euphoria here that has long defined the American West. These days, Elko knows better.

Nevada is stippled with so many mining camp ruins — more than 100 in Elko County alone, locals say — that “ghost-towning” is a weekend pastime. Only a decade ago, tanking gold prices saddled the region with abandoned homes and shredded dreams.

Now the Elko city government is mostly socking away cash and putting off hiring, even for a police force strained by a transient population. Even among workers who feel blessed to cash paychecks, there is a sense of unease. Why buy a home here if the gold rush could vanish tomorrow?

There’s lots more to this report including the requisite human interest stories and more on the difficulties encountered by the local government in trying to deal with the boom as best they can. As for the prospect of the gold price tumbling back to levels that would bring the Elko mining boom to an end, you don’t have to look to hard at the world’s many intractable money problems to think that those chances are slim.

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Cross the Streams!

The market carnage in recent days has been something to behold and, as the debate continues about the degree the Fed’s “significant downside risk” view of the world the other day is to blame, that uncharacteristically sour view of things certainly didn’t help.

Anyone thinking that gold is a safe haven like U.S. Treasuries or the U.S. dollar has been reminded that it is surely not. At times like this, the yellow metal is sold along with everything else, reviving long before other asset classes, but only after policy makers start talking about how much money they’re going to print up for the greater good.

At least that was the lesson of 2008, which, given how conditions have deteriorated in recent days, would be the appropriate comparison. Sadly, it appears that the question of whether 2011 will “rhyme” with 2008 or 2010 is now being answered.

But, in the mean time, lower prices are available for investors seeking to trade in some of their increasingly shaky paper money for something more substantial.

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