REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

Dr. Copper Pulls Back, Other Metals Follow

The copper price is certainly not taking kindly to news that price controls are being imposed in China, the metal with a PhD in economics plunging $20 yesterday, recouping only a fraction of that today, and now down sharply from the two-year highs of a week ago.

And it’s not just copper. From the price peaks of early-last week, aluminum is now down 9 percent, nickel has dropped 12 percent, lead is 14 percent lower, and zinc, the metal with the least support from “normal” demand factors (i.e., actual demand, rather than just a place for some of the Fed’s easy money to go) has seen its price plunge 17 percent.

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China Considers Price Controls

It looks like markets have gotten the message from China on how they feel about rising commodity prices and the entire natural resource sector (along with stocks, bonds, and everything else) is beating a hasty retreat today. Bloomberg reports that the government might soon impose price controls so as to keep the populace from getting too fidgety.

China may impose price limits on food and toughen punishment of those found speculating on agriculture futures including corn and cotton to combat rising inflation, the China Securities Journal reported, citing an unidentified person.

The government may also crack down on hoarding, offer food subsidies and hold local mayors responsible for ensuring vegetable supplies and controlling prices, the report said. In May, the government said hoarders will be fined by up to five times the value of the commodities held, the paper said.

Corn prices in China jumped to a record today as tightening supplies increased their investment appeal. Rice also reached an all-time high. China has already sold sugar, cotton, corn, aluminum and zinc from stockpiles in an effort to ease supply shortages and curb inflation, which gained at the fastest pace in two years last month.

“Prices of food and cotton have gone up to the point that the government has decided to step up efforts to crack down on speculation and make sure that inflation doesn’t flare up further,” Dong Shuzhi, manager at Beida Founder Commodities Co., said by phone from Shanghai today.

Consumer prices in China gained 4.4 percent in October. The government’s full-year inflation target is 3 percent. China’s central bank raised bank reserve requirements last week and last month increased interest rates for the first time in three years to tame inflation.

Of course, if you ask an economist (like this one writing in The Economist), you’ll learn how it’s not the Fed’s money printing campaign that is causing all these troubles.

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“Crash JP Morgan Buy Silver!”

This is one of the tamer videos over at Max Kaiser’s blog where, by the looks of it, there is a concerted campaign to bring down TBTF bank JP Morgan by urging the masses to buy and take possession of silver bars and silver coins.

Recall that JP Morgan is believed to have massive silver short positions that, you’d think, after the recent price surge, would be causing  a good deal of grief for whoever is keeping the books over there. It looks to be another interesting week in metals markets with gold and silver rising along with the trade-weighted dollar so far today. It’s always kind of creepy when that happens because you know something really bad is happening in Europe.

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The Weekend’s Precious Metals Commentary

Following are excerpts from the current issue of the Weekend Update at  Iacono Research.]

It was another week of record highs for precious metals, but developments late in the week set the tone for a very uncertain period ahead, metal prices seeing some of their sharpest daily declines in months after new margin trading requirements were imposed for silver and rising inflation in China spurred new fears of tighter monetary policy.

More talk about the relationship between gold and paper money came from World Bank chief Robert Zoellick and more coverage of precious metals came from the mainstream media in the form of a front page New York Times story just after the gold price surged to over $1,400 an ounce, all of this followed later in the week by a plunge of almost $50.

For the week, the gold price fell 1.7 percent, from $1.392.90 an ounce to $1,368.80, while the silver price dropped 2.6 percent, from $26.75 an ounce to $26.04. For the year, both metals continue to carry impressive gains, the gold price now up 24.8 percent while silver has risen 54.3 percent, trailing only the gains made by cotton and palladium.

The most recent run-up in the gold price is again shown in the updated graphic below alongside both the 2005-2006 and 2007-2008 moves. It is important to note that this now-lengthy 2009-2010 jaunt just last week surpassed the one seen just two years ago with a rise of 38 percent versus 36 percent.

(more…)

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This week’s commodity oddity comes via this item at FT Alphaville in which a religious group thinks the world might be better off if people avoided investing in hard assets due to the negative impact this increased demand will have on the population as a whole.

We just received the following note from the Interfaith Center on Corporate Responsibility:

I’m writing to share a story that might be of interest to your readers.

As active shareholders, members of the Interfaith Center on Corporate Responsibility (www.iccr.org) have been working with top U.S. financial institutions for decades to reform banking practices in an effort to stabilize global markets.

Our members, mainly faith-based institutional investors, are interested in these issues because they understand that volatile markets will disproportionately impact the world’s poor. The current volatility in commodities prices which is partially driven by over speculation in these markets has the potential to create untold suffering and for this reason, our members are working to discourage these investments.

The press release below tells of our recent success with CalSTRS in an on-going campaign.

Indeed, the background here is that the California State Teachers’ Retirement System earlier announced earlier this year that it was looking to allocate assets into commodities as part of its investment diversification plans.

But, as John Kemp at Reuters noted earlier this week, those plans were scaled back substantially this week largely due to the above concerns.

The rightly caution that, given the Fed’s determination to print money until the economy improves, they shouldn’t be too disappointed if they’re investment returns fall short at some point in the future. Then again, investment funds could just buy gold as no one needs dumb ‘ol gold coins to heat their house or feed their family.

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Happy Birthday GDXJ!

Exactly one year ago today, the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDXJ) was launched by Van Eck Global, the fund company with something of a golden touch in recent years. It has had an impressive run, topping the $2 billion mark in net assets just yesterday with a year-over-year gain that is now just shy of 60 percent.

This first-of-its-kind ETF offers access to small-cap mining stocks – 59 at last count – many of which are only available as over-the-counter stocks to U.S. investors. The top ten holdings account for 38 percent of net assets and include such familiar names as Novagold Resources (AMEX:NG) and Hecla Mining Co. (NYSE:HL) along with SEMAFO Inc., Allied Nevada Gold, and European Goldfields, none of which are listed in the U.S.

For investors who want exposure to some of the biggest junior mining companies without having to setup a brokerage account in Canada or fussing with over-the-counter transactions in the U.S., this ETF is an attractive option.

Full Disclosure: Long GDXJ at time of writing

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