REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

Have You Seen M3 Lately?

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard mentioned the remarkable resurrection of the M3 monetary aggregate in this story at the Telegraph today, hopeful that the rising number of dollars will help resurrect the U.S. economy. Since I’d not seen it in some time, it seemed like a good idea to look up nowandfutures for the latest chart.

I’m not sure this is good or bad – Ambrose seems to think quite bullish for us Americans. But, anytime you get the money supply growing at a high multiple of the growth in the population, you’re asking trouble, and that’s what we got in 2008.  I wouldn’t be surprised if this generates a little inflation trouble here in the West in the not-too-distant future.

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From WTFNoWay via this HuffPost item comes another helpful visual aid for understanding the difference between billions and trillions, the old saying “a billion here, a billion there … pretty soon you’re starting to talk about real money” sounding almost quaint today.


Click to enlarge

In the top image, that’s one small stack of $100 bills totaling $10,000 next to a small pile totaling $1 million in  front of ten pallets  that total $1 billion (you might recall that the U.S. shipped many pallets like these to Baghdad during the Iraq War). In case you don’t immediately see them, these three are all reproduced at the lower left of the bottom image.

It’s probably not very difficult for those few central bankers who happen to work in natural resource rich western nations to slam policy makers in the U.S. and Europe for their recent bungling of debt troubles, this MarketWatch report providing the latest comments by Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens.

Stevens said “in both the U.S. and European cases, the process of allowing things to go right to the brink of a very disruptive event before an agreement is reached on the way forward has been a source of great uncertainty and anxiety around the world … [and] that anxiety has extended to Australia.”

It’s hard to sympathize with Stevens since, without the consumption and debt excesses in the U.S, China would not require near the amount of raw materials they currently import from Australia where, lately, there is renewed concern that the long-delayed bursting of a housing bubble might come sooner rather than later, the first inkling of fear at the central bank apparent with comments like these:

Turning to the Australian economy, Stevens said that Australians should develop some “longer-term perspective” over household income, spending and saving trends.

He said that he wouldn’t disagree with the common perception that consumers are cautious, with consumption growth flat for three years, but suggested that there could be some misconceptions about what’s driving reluctance to spend.

One explanation for this shift is that real asset prices, such as prices for houses, aren’t rising as quickly as they did before 2007, he said.

“They look very much like they are on a much flatter trend,” Stevens said. “If people had been banking on a continuation of the earlier trend, they would be feeling rather disappointed now.”

As far as housing booms go, talk of a “perpetually high plateau” is about as close as you come to “a kiss of death”, especially if price to income ratios are at astronomical levels, as they currently are in some Australian cities.

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Who Holds the U.S. Debt?

The folks at Congressional Quarterly have compiled this handy interactive chart for anyone who wants to see how much and to whom the U.S. owes its $14.3 trillion.

Click to enlarge

It’s that $4.5 trillion “Foreign investors” category that keeps policy makers up at night, though, domestic investors might someday tire of the nation’s spendthrift ways too. The big difference between the two groups is the U.S. dollar – the value of foreign investors’ holdings are affected by both the value of their Treasuries and the dollar exchange rate, whereas domestic holders see only the fluctuating bond price. This could be important someday, especially if today’s slide in the trade-weighted dollar accelerates.

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It’s not clear what conclusion should be drawn from the raft of favorable gold articles recently, the latest being the New York Times story In a Gold Lovefest, Shades of 1980 that, despite what you might think from the title, is wildly bullish about the metal.

This follows a troika of stories from last week at the Wall Street Journal and Reuters that similarly fawned over the metal’s recent rise:

Asian investors stricken by gold fever on record price – Reuters
Gold Push Unlikely to Be Scrapped – WSJ($) (alternate link)
Why Gold Won’t Soon Crash – WSJ($) (alternate link)

In my view, we’re still nowhere near the top for the gold price and, while exiting long-term gold positions isn’t something that I’ve yet considered seriously, articles like the ones above appearing in Money Magazine would compel me to rethink that promptly.

Of course, all the recent interest in gold has really been driven by changing views about the increasingly shaky paper money that the world has been using in recent decades and, in the latest in a long series of articles about gold and money, Judy Shelton offers what is clearly the best paragraph about the two in recent memory in this story at The Weekly Standard:

Under a gold standard, money regains its primary purpose as a vital tool of free markets instead of serving as a corrupted instrument of government policy. Genuine economic growth​—​as opposed to the money illusion of artificial wealth reflected in bloated equities or housing prices​—​is no longer sacrificed to monetary policy encumbered by the fiscal failures of government.

Clearly, a gold standard is no panacea, but paper money does look more and more like a “corrupted instrument of government policy” each and every day…

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Jim Grant of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer thinks the U.S. debt ceiling crisis is both artificial and contrived, the real crisis at the moment being the ongoing troubles in Europe.

He also says the U.S. should go back forward to a gold standard and that U.S. Treasuries are just pieces of paper emitted by a government that is cash flow negative.

So far, no takers in Washington D.C. on the gold standard idea…

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