REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

Roach: “Zero Bound Until 2025″

Not surprisingly, Morgan Stanley’s Stephen Roach doesn’t think much of the idea of perpetual ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) as part of an ongoing policy by the Fed and he talks to Bloomberg’s Tom Keene on this subject and others while in Davos, Switzerland.

Roach says that, along with many other Western central bankers, Fed Chief Ben Bernanke is “betting the ranch on open-ended QE and zero interest rates” that, throughout history, have only been used as emergency measures, not long-term policy.







Debt ‘Round the World

Today’s Daily Chart from the The Economist is chock-full of fun and interesting data on public and private sector debt around the world and, based on the graphic below, us Anglo-Saxons are clearly outpacing the rest of the world when it comes to household debt.

Of course, Japan is the unquestioned leader in government debt – about double that of second place Italy – but, flipping through the tabs of this interactive graphic reveals that, overall, the U.K. is the worst of the lot … it’s a good thing they can print their own money.

The Uneasy Calm in European Bond Markets

Here’s another one of those neat graphics from Spiegel Online, this one related to a story yesterday about what they consider to be only a “temporary respite” from the credit market troubles that have accelerated in recent weeks and months.

If not for the swath of S&P credit downgrades in recent days, there would probably be even more sore arms in Europe from everyone patting each other on the back, that is, after a $500+ billion program of back-door money printing seems to have produced the desired effects on the red and yellow lines above.

Sorry, but after downloading the transcript(.pdf) for the January 31st, 2006 FOMC meeting with the intention of looking at all the praise heaped on Alan Greenspan on his last day as Fed Chairman in order to relay selected misguided quotes in this post, the 78 page length of the document proved too daunting, especially after all the joking around in the beginning of the document at a time that the central bank could actually have done something to prevent or mitigate the financial market disaster that followed a few years later.

Instead, relying on the many poor souls in the financial media who had to slog through transcripts for all eight meeting that year, we find that Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner (New York Fed President at the time) appears to have been the most misguided as to the legacy of the outgoing Fed chief when he noted:

I’d like the record to show that I think you’re pretty terrific, too. [Laughter] And thinking in terms of probabilities, I think the risk that we decide in the future that you’re even better than we think is higher than the alternative. [Laughter]

Surely you can understand better now…

More confirmation of the Peter Principle and that economists are particularly ill-suited to run an economy were provided in this assessment of the Greenspan tenure at the Fed by San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen who, since, has been promoted to Fed Vice Chair:

Needless to say, it’s fitting for Chairman Greenspan to leave office with the economy in such solid shape. And if I might torture a simile, I would say, Mr. Chairman, that the situation you’re handing off to your successor is a lot like a tennis racquet with a gigantic sweet spot. [Laughter]

Again with the laughter.

(more…)

Federal Reserve Blissfully Unaware in 2006

The intertubes were abuzz yesterday after the release of the Federal Reserve’s 2006 policy committee meeting minutes in which it seems the central bank was blissfully unaware of the trouble ahead for housing and credit markets, a point nicely illustrated below from the Wall Street Journal’s Little Alarm Shown at Fed At Dawn of Housing Bust($).

“So far we are seeing, at worst, an orderly decline in the housing market,” he said.

Mr. Bernanke predicted a “soft landing” for the economy as 2006 ended, not a housing bust that would trigger the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

Timothy Geithner, then president of the New York Fed and now Treasury Secretary, playfully offered this forecast about Mr. Greenspan’s legacy: “I think the risk that we decide in the future that you’re even better than we think is higher than the alternative.”

Amazing stuff (no, not really)… For those still playing catch-up on this, some more links:

FOMC: Transcripts and Other Historical Materials, 2006 – Federal Reserve
Inside the Fed in 2006: A Coming Crisis, and Banter – NY Times
Fed 2006 Transcript: Riding Housing Roller Coaster With Eyes Shut – WSJ
Fed’s image tarnished by newly released documents – Washington Post
Richard Fisher Compares the Housing Bubble to Brad Pitt’s Baby – WSJ
On bank self-regulation and other Greenspan fairy tales – Credit Writedowns
The Fed’s Undistinguished Macro Discussions Circa Jan 2006 – Capital Spectator
Comments from FOMC meetings which resulted in laughter – Economist
So This Central Banker Walks Into a Bar…. – Crossing Wall Street
The Federal Reserve Is…Gasp…Funny – NetNet

Ron Paul Continues to Confound

Not having watched much of the back-to-back debates for the GOP presidential nomination over the weekend, it’s just a guess (but a pretty safe one) that Rep Ron Paul (R-TX) continued to be a great source of cognitive dissonance for anyone watching. For those finding a way to avoid completely dismissing his views out of hand, this story at Mother Jones provides a handy  Venn Diagram that can be used to sort things out.

This related item at lewrockwell.com indicates some of the nation’s brightest business minds aren’t that confused about Paul, CNN’s Erin Burnett recently noting an “astounding number of top business leaders were OK with the idea of a Ron Paul presidency”. Pimco’s Bill Gross was the only name mentioned, though, I’d love to hear who the others are.

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