Just One Day Left to Save the Euro…

With just one day left to “save the euro” (as policymakers put it early last week), it appears that Lucy is about the pull the ball out from under Charlie Brown’s swinging foot one last time and, perhaps after this big miss, Charlie will wind up flat on his back and stay there.

Hopes were never very high for officials to accomplish much at tomorrow’s European Union summit (a meeting dubbed the most important gathering of this group in two years), but markets were instead placing their faith in the ECB (European Central Bank) to finally taking some sort of action to bolster credit markets.

But, after ECB President Mario Draghi spoke earlier today following the announcement that the bank had lowered short-term interest rates (a move that was widely expected) and offered banks long-term loans (a move that won’t make any difference over the near-term), markets appear to be quickly coming to the conclusion that Europe just doesn’t seem to care that they’re about to enter the abyss.

Word earlier today that the International Monetary Fund was riding to the rescue had raised the hopes of many and Bloomberg reports that European central banks are considering sending $200 billion to this group, which they’ll presumably “leverage up” somehow to a much higher amount before buying sovereign debt of spendthrift European governments.

We’ll see how that works out – it would appear to be the only hope at this point.

They’re starting to call tomorrow’s meeting the “No Second Chance Summit” after French President Nicolas Sarkozy warned that policymakers had better get it right this time, despite the fact that they’ve failed to get it right regularly over the last two years.

Something tells me that Lucy’s going to do what she always does…

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Well, That Was Interesting

The next day or so should be fairly exciting for financial markets as developments in the on-again, off-again rescue of the European public debt market reach some sort of a climax. Like most other assets, gold has become quite volatile as of late, surging by almost $20 an ounce earlier today and then diving about $25 an ounce in short order after the European Central Bank announced another interest rate cut.

The gold price is rebounding a bit now and commodity prices are mostly positive, but equity markets appear headed lower as U.S. markets prepare to open. A seat belt and a bottle of Maalox might not be a bad idea for the next 30 hours or so.

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Charting ECB Government Bond Buying

From this report at Der Spiegel comes the terrifying chart below showing how dramatically ECB (European Central Bank) bond buying has increased in recent months. This comes at a time when European banks have increasingly relied on the ECB’s emergency liquidity programs and expectations are being lowered by the hour for this week’s summit.

Of course, European banks tapped the Fed/ECB dollar swap program, announced to much fanfare last week, to the tune of $50+ billion in its first week of operation at lower rates and easier terms, about five times the amount that analysts had expected.

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The Standard & Poor’s Cattle Prod

Standard and Poor’s has again injected themselves into the middle of the debate about European sovereign debt (and, after two years, the inability of policymakers to do anything about it) by putting 15 eurozone nations on “credit watch negative”. Here’s the latest from Reuters from a gentlemen with a somewhat comforting accent from north of Brussels.

I can’t tell if that’s an Irish accent or one of those Scottish accents that is easily understood. When visiting Scotland a few years ago, we found that, in some areas, the accents are completely incomprehensible to us ‘Mericans. You can pick out a word here and there and try to figure out the rest based on context, but, you have to be able to do that a much faster rate than I was capable of doing. My guess is that he’s Scottish. Anyone?

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Fed Dollar Swaps Over Time

Since reading about the central bank dollar swap program announced the other day and that it really isn’t anything new, just the resurrection of a 2008-era crisis facility, plotting these swap lines versus everything else on the Fed’s balance sheet seemed like a good idea.

As shown above, the program “sprang to life” in December 2008 and, based on what’s happened in recent days, it looks like it just might spring to life again in the period ahead.

Why Central Banks Took Action Today

From this story at Der Spiegel comes the terrifying graphic below about the European debt crisis, one that central bankers were no doubt aware of when they acted to boost the availability and lower the cost of U.S. dollars for European banks today.

Not that what was done will make any difference over the long-term, but, it should alleviate some of the current pressure and, by the looks of the stock market today, enable a nice Santa Claus rally, though, European policymakers could still screw that up.

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