REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

Ron Paul on Monetary Freedom

Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) appeared on Fox Business News yesterday to talk about the nation’s money and a return to the gold standard in the unlikely event that he’s elected president.

His discussion of the U.S. dollar throughout American history reminded me of a Wall Street Journal book review yesterday by James Grant that, from what I could tell, was a lot better than the book – Greenback Planet by H.W. Brands. From the book review:

“Greenback Planet” is the story of this amazing monetary transformation. The narrative begins in the 18th century and races to the present, pausing to catch its breath at some of the great American monetary landmarks: Andrew Jackson’s veto, in 1832, of legislation rechartering a predecessor to the Federal Reserve; Abraham Lincoln’s recourse to greenbacks, or fiat currency, to finance the Civil War; resumption of the gold standard in 1879, with which it once more became possible to exchange gold for paper and vice-versa at a fixed and statutory rate; J.P. Morgan quelling the Panic of 1907; the Federal Reserve not quelling, never mind preventing, the Great Depression; the crazy-quilt monetary improvisations of the 1930s; the halfway gold dollar of the post-World War II era; and the creation, in 1971, of the pure paper (later digital) model of today.

Mr. Brands is a paper-money man, though the subtitle of his book—”How the Dollar Conquered the World and Threatened Civilization as We Know It”—seems to betray some reservations.







One Last Supercommittee Cartoon

I suppose that, someday, we’ll all look back at the recent failed effort of the deficit reduction “supercommittee” in Congress and realize that it marked a seminal moment in the history of U.S. debt. Of course, it won’t be nearly as funny then as it is now.

From the Michael Ramirez archive at Town Hall.

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Europe’s “Pigheaded Brinksmanship”

This week’s edition of The Economist is chock full of stories about the euro zone’s current sovereign debt troubles and their flagging currency, the cover story asking the same question that is no doubt on the minds of many bond traders these days.

Past financial crises show that this downward spiral can be arrested only by bold policies to regain market confidence. But Europe’s policymakers seem unable or unwilling to be bold enough. The much-ballyhooed leveraging of the euro-zone rescue fund agreed on in October is going nowhere. Euro-zone leaders have become adept at talking up grand long-term plans to safeguard their currency—more intrusive fiscal supervision, new treaties to advance political integration. But they offer almost no ideas for containing today’s conflagration.

Germany’s cautious chancellor, Angela Merkel, can be ruthlessly efficient in politics: witness the way she helped to pull the rug from under Silvio Berlusconi. A credit crunch is harder to manipulate. Along with leaders of other creditor countries, she refuses to acknowledge the extent of the markets’ panic (see article). The European Central Bank (ECB) rejects the idea of acting as a lender of last resort to embattled, but solvent, governments. The fear of creating moral hazard, under which the offer of help eases the pressure on debtor countries to embrace reform, is seemingly enough to stop all rescue plans in their tracks. Yet that only reinforces investors’ nervousness about all euro-zone bonds, even Germany’s, and makes an eventual collapse of the currency more likely.

This cannot go on for much longer. Without a dramatic change of heart by the ECB and by European leaders, the single currency could break up within weeks.

There’s also this story that, just in case you didn’t get the message from above, reiterates the point that “the risk that the currency disintegrates within weeks is alarmingly high”.

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Another Bad Day in Europe

It’s been quite some time since I’ve heard a good, thick Italian accent like the one by Reuters analyst Vincenzo Albano in the video below and, I don’t know about you, but, to me, it kind of makes the situation sound even worse than it really is, if that’s possible.

Borrowing costs are spiraling out of of control again and, after a German bond auction disaster and what increasingly looks like a French credit downgrade, things may finally be coming to a head for the European sovereign debt crisis that recently entered its third year.

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Another Supercommittee Cartoon

Here’s today’s supercommittee cartoon pick. It’s not clear which is the Democrat and which is the Republican as the cat clearly isn’t even trying while the dog is at least making it look as though he is, though he probably really isn’t.

From the Steve Kelly archive at The New Orleans Times Picayune.

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It’s hard not to think that, with the failure of deficit reduction supercommittee to come up with any deal of any kind over the last few months, elected officials in Washington have set themselves up for an even bigger failure over the next year.

While they may take comfort in the idea that they’ve hardened their positions on spending and taxes in advances of the elections a year from now, they’ve overlooked the possibility that this may be a very different nation next November with the electorate perhaps, finally, ready to “throw all the bums out”.

If you thought that the supercommittee had intractable problems, look what lies dead ahead:

  • The Social Security 2 percent payroll tax cut expires in January 2012
  • Extended unemployment benefits expire on in January 2012
  • Alternative Minimum Tax on the middle class goes up in January 2012
  • Medicare reimbursements to physicians go down in January 2012

Getting Congress and the White House to agree on extending any of these provisions will not only be quite a challenge, but it will affect the overall budget picture and the looming 2013 sequestered cuts. But, letting all of these measures expire will cause the U.S. economy to take a big hit, as much as one full percentage point of GDP growth or more.

And as the 2012 elections heats up, the nation will be dealing with two looming crises:

  • The $1.2 trillion in automatic spending cuts in January 2013
  • The expiration of the Bush-era tax cuts in January 2013

I think it’s safe to say that, as far as partisan wrangling and the potential for this to create more financial market calamity, “you ain’t seen nuthin’ yet”.

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