Payrolls Up 243K, Jobless Rate Falls to 8.3%

The Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls rose by 243,000 from December to January and the jobless rate fell from 8.5 percent to 8.3 percent. Private sector job gains of 257,000 were broad based with professional and business services leading the way and the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since February 2009.

This data release included benchmark revisions for prior data, the net result being an upward revision of more than 250,000 to nonfarm payrolls in recent years. Payrolls for 2011 alone were revised upward by 180,000, from a gain of 1.64 million to 1.82 million.

(more…)

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Ben Bernanke Goes to Capitol Hill

Apparently, Fed Chief Ben Bernanke had a fairly interesting visit with elected officials on Capitol Hill today, at least judging by this exchange with Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI).

It’s kind of amazing that, nearly four years after the financial crisis, Fed economists still think that interest rate policy during the housing bubble mania had little or nothing to do with its formation or subsequent bust.

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Hopes Dim for a Grant Fed Chairmanship

With Mitt Romney pulling away from both Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul in their bid for the GOP presidential nomination, hopes are now dimming that Jim Grant of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer will play an important role in the nation’s monetary policy going forward as Grant is increasingly unlikely to either sit on a new Gold Commission (as suggested by Gingrich) or head the Federal Reserve (as Ron Paul recommended), in the latter scenario, perhaps just exchanging dollars for gold under a new gold standard until such time that the central bank can be disbanded. In this report at MarketWatch, Brett Arends fills in the details:

“Unfortunately, I haven’t heard from Mr. Romney yet,” joked Grant when I called on him in his offices down on Wall Street. “I’m sitting by the phone, I’m ready.”

He may have to wait some time. Romney, a conventional Wall Street figure, is unlikely to tap him anytime soon.

He is best known these days — to Gingrich and Paul, among others — for his long-standing support for the gold standard. The world has moved in his direction. In 12 years, gold has risen from a derided relic trading at $250 an ounce to a hot investment at $1,750. Everywhere paper currency systems are under challenge. In 2008, the world discovered that you can’t just manufacture endless wealth out of thin air, as the gold bugs had long argued, and it is still struggling with the realization.

Many people will think of the gold standard as a relic of a bygone era, something as old-fashioned as bow-ties and stuffed animals. (My caveat: To me, that’s not an insult.) Grant, when we met, argued the reverse. He says paper currencies and our current monetary system are the ones that are out of date.

“The anachronism is today’s system,” he says. We have a “command and control, top down” system where the Fed imposes an interest rate on society. The Fed, in other words, tells us what the price of money should be. It is, Grant says, at odds with the modern age. “We live in a world of collaborative social networks” of the Internet and Facebook, of Wikipedia instead of the old World Book, and so on. And yet when it comes to the price of money, we wait for a committee that sits in private to tell us what it should be”.

There’s lots more in this story on Grant’s views of the financial system as currently constructed and what he would do if he were to sit in Ben Bernanke’s chair at the Fed. If you ask me, his gold standard price of $2,500 an ounce for the metal seems a bit low.

ISM Manufacturing Index at 7-Month High

If the nation is about to enter a recession, then somebody better tell the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index that rose to a seven month high last month, the important new orders component continuing to indicate a healthy expansion.

The overall index, where readings above and below 50 indicate expansion and contraction, respectively, rose from 53.1 in December to 54.1 in January and, while this was slightly below consensus estimates, a jump in the new orders component from 54.8 to 57.6 compensated for that disappointment.

Not surprisingly (given the rise in new orders) backlog orders rose from 48.0 to 52.5, however, there were a few negatives as production fell from 58.9 to 55.7 and the employment index dipped from 54.8 to 54.3.

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The chart below from this study by the CBO (Congressional Budget Office) has had a good deal of discussion today (see here and here, though there are probably a lot more by now) and for good reason. It used to be that you took a public sector job knowing that the pay wasn’t so hot but the benefits were good. Now you get both!

The CBO apparently tried to make this an apples-to-apples comparison by controlling for the many variables that affect wages and benefits and it seems to make sense – unless you’re a doctor or lawyer, you’re better compensated working for the gubment.

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It Helps to Have Friends in High Places…

Wow. That was one lucky unemployed engineer whose wife happened to be hanging out at Google+ when President Obama popped in and, to make a short story even shorter, promised to help find him a job. Details are in this MarketWatch story by Greg Robb.

President Barack Obama jumped into a new social media format on Monday and, as if he doesn’t have enough to do, ended up promising a worried spouse to help find a job for her unemployed husband.

Obama got the assignment during a live-streamed interview organized by Google Plus, the online search giant’s new social networking site.

The forum was designed to show off Google Plus’ new “Hangout” feature, where several friends can video chat together.

“Industry tells me they don’t have enough highly-skilled engineers. If your husband is in that field, we should get his resume and I will forward it,” Obama told Jennifer Weddel of Fort Worth, Texas.

Obama seemed surprised to hear that a semiconductor engineer was unemployed.“I will follow up on this,” Obama said.

Well, hopefully he’s a “highly-skilled” (and highly-degreed) engineer and not just one of those folks who call themselves an engineer because they once manned a technical support phone line for Microsoft or somesuch. I can’t imagine what it would be like to still be working my old cubicle job – it’s coming up on five years now since I left that behind and, as each year goes by, it seems as though it’s another three years in the past.

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