REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.

Alan Greenspan on Social Security

Toward the end of this New York Times story about the Social Security “trust fund” experiencing net withdrawals this year for the first time are a few words from former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan about the system that he helped “fix” back in the early 1980s.

Although Social Security is often said to have a “trust fund,” the term really serves as an accounting device, to track the pay-as-you-go program’s revenue and outlays over time. Its so-called balance is, in fact, a history of its vast cash flows: the sum of all of its revenue in the past, minus all of its outlays. The balance is currently about $2.5 trillion because after the early 1980s the program had surplus revenue, year after year.

Mr. Greenspan recalled in an interview that the sour economy of the late 1970s had taken the program close to insolvency when the commission he led set to work in 1982. It had no contingency reserve then, and the group had to work quickly. He said there were only three choices: raise taxes, lower benefits or bail out the program by tapping general revenue.

The easiest choice, politically, would have been “solving the problem with the stroke of a pen, by printing the money,” Mr. Greenspan said. But one member of the commission, Claude Pepper, then a House representative, blocked that approach because he feared it would undermine Social Security, changing it from a respected, self-sustaining old-age program into welfare.

Recall that payroll taxes were raised back in 1983 and the Federal Government has been spending the Social Security surplus every year since that time, in the process making the government’s annual budget look a lot better than it actually is. This no doubt helped to make the former Fed chairman quite popular with elected officials, that is, until the whole financial system melted down a couple years ago.

Tagged with:  






The lone dissenter at the last two Fed meetings, Kansas City Federal Reserve President Thomas Hoenig, talks to Fox Business news about, among other things, the perils of short-term interest rates that are left “too low for too long”.

Hoenig compares the last decade to the early 1970s noting, “we have had an extended period of negative real rates and we know what followed in the 70s. Now that’s not necessarily what’s going to follow now, but it is a concern.”

Tagged with:  

One of the things that many people go through their entire lives without ever realizing is that conditions haven’t always been the way they remember them to be. Due to the length of a typical lifetime and the number of those years that individuals are productive, it’s reasonable to think that someone in their mid-60s could retire today and look back at the last 40 years only to conclude that what they just experienced was normal.

But, what if the last 40 years were anything but normal?

What if, in the world of finance and economics, it was all just a big bubble?

One look at the chart below from this recent Wall Street Journal story and it becomes instantly clear that stock market valuations over the last twenty years have been nowhere near normal. In fact, what were deemed “generational lows” for valuations at the peak of the financial market crisis a year ago look like nothing of the sort over the broad sweep of time.

And when you consider what happened in the natural resource sector in the 1970s and then what followed in Japan in the 1980s, it’s quite easy to come to the conclusion that, since the world left those last vestiges of sound money when Nixon closed the gold window in 1971, we live in a radically different world.

While some quickly dismiss ideas like this, reminding anyone who will listen that “correlation is not causation” while citing technological advances made during this time as just cause for the changes we’ve seen in financial markets, breakthroughs such as railroads and electricity a hundred or more years ago likely had a bigger impact on the world than computers, communication, and medical technology more recently.

(more…)

Martin Feldstein talks to Bloomberg News about, among many other things, the possibility for a double-dip recession in the U.S., an event that he believes is a “significant risk”.


Click to play in a new window.

It’s a familiar story of higher savings by consumers whose balance sheets have been decimated by bursting asset bubbles, all of which is leading to lower aggregate demand over the long-term and President Barack Obama apparently isn’t helping:

This (healthcare) has been his one issue. It’s almost as if he didn’t know we had a deep recession. He would say, ‘My number one concern is jobs’, but then he would immediately turn to see what he could do to increase votes for the health care legilation.

On the Greek debt crisis he thinks they’re headed for a “polite default”, meaning that, instead of paying off holders of maturing bonds with euros, they’ll just give them new bonds.

Tagged with:  

Maestro No More

The defense of monetary policy during the gestation years of the housing bubble was reiterated (yet again) yesterday by former Fed chief Alan Greenspan in a paper(.pdf) titled “The Crisis” that is being presented today at the Brookings Institution.

While the 48 pages of text and the 18 page appendix await attention that they are unlikely to receive from me on this Friday, the contents are quite clear based on reports in the mainstream financial media and the two central points appear to be:

1. Low rates are not to blame
2. See number 1

The Wall Street Journal carries a story in the public area of their website today where Jon Hilsenrath restores some order to the recent reporting on the former Fed chairman, inserting the once-mandatory caveats that all post-2008 Greenspan stories used to carry before an image re-building campaign apparently met with some success over the last year or so:

Mr. Greenspan’s reputation has been tarnished by the crisis. Widely hailed when he left office in January 2006 as one of the greatest central bankers ever, he is now blamed by many for advocating deregulation and low interest rates during the 1990s and 2000s.

That’s more like it – the third paragraph in – short and sweet.

In his paper, Greenspan concedes that regulation failed and that the central bank didn’t see the mounting risks in the financial system, but he goes on to defend monetary policy back in 2002-2004 and blames the “savings glut” as the primary interest rate culprit, that is, the theory that short-term rates played little role in inflating the housing bubble and that the Fed was powerless over the long-term rates that did.

(more…)

The Mysterious CPI Shelter Component

Well, it looks like whatever it was that was going on last month within the shelter category of the Labor Department’s consumer price data is now back to normal in this month’s report. As shown below, after considering the respective component weightings, the total seems to make sense in February (in green) versus the oddity that was January (in red).

Recall that, about a month ago in A math problem at the Labor Department? this question of addition was raised after the -0.5 percent decline in shelter costs caused the widely publicized first negative reading on month-to-month core inflation in many, many years.
IMAGE What looks to be an obvious error was attributed to seasonal adjustment. That is, after the weightings (in blue) are adjusted for seasonal factors they somehow allow the lodging away from home component to greatly impact the shelter total.

All else being equal, you’d have to increase the lodging away from home weighting by a factor of ten to get the overall shelter total as reported in January. Do that many more people travel in January than during other months of the year?

Tagged with:  
Page 100 of 106« First...1020309899100101102...Last »
© 2010-2011 The Mess That Greenspan Made