New Stimulus, Same as the Old Stimulus?

I haven’t gone through President Obama’s proposed jobs bill in any detail and don’t intend to, but, based on this summary from this Economist story today, it sure looks a lot like the stimulus that was enacted a couple of years ago that, like the homebuyer tax credit and “cash for clunkers”, just delayed the inevitable result.

Bailing out state governments, extending jobless benefits, etc. all seem to presume that, somehow, the U.S. economy is going to return to its pre-2008 growth track and that all we need to do is give it a little help along the way. With each passing month, that seems more unlikely and it might be a good idea to begin adjusting to a more sustainable economy (i.e., one less dependent on credit, finance, and rising asset prices) sooner rather than later.

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On Entering Another Great Depression

As you may have hears, President Obama introduced a new plan to resuscitate job growth yesterday, but Fed Chief Ben Bernanke gave a speech as well in which, according to this NY Times report, he said Americans are “depressed beyond reason or expectation”.

How depressed are they? According to this  Gallup survey from earlier in the week, more than half think we’ll enter a 1930s-like depression in the years ahead.

Maybe next time, to get a less negative result, they should just ask Wall Street bankers…

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Downwardly Mobile in the U.S.

I couldn’t help but think of this Pew survey(.pdf) spotted at the Huffington Post this morning when listening to President Obama introduce his American Jobs Act before a joint session of Congress earlier this evening. The report concluded that about one quarter of children raised in middle-class families in the 1970s have fallen out of that group, presumably reversing a trend that had been in place for many decades. This chart was pretty interesting too:

A quick trip over to the BLS inflation calculator reveals that $32,900 in 1980 equaled about $78,000 in 2005 and $64,000 would be over $150,000 after adjusting for inflation, so, it appears that, even those who have managed to stay in the middle class are falling behind.

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Rick Perry Does Not ♥ Economic Eggheads

There’s a lot not to like about Texas Governor and GOP candidate Rick Perry, but, clearly, two of his redeeming qualities are his disdain for the Bernanke Fed and, based on the fact that his campaign team is, so far, devoid of economists, a seeming dislike for the entire dismal set. Prior to last night’s GOP debate, this story in Forbes discussed the latter.

The governor relies on the Lone Star State’s economic performance under his leadership over the last decade to make his case. But where is his economic plan for the nation? Or, at least, where is the economic team that will help him craft it?

So far, apparently, neither exists.

As he stands up his campaign, there is evidence Perry is reaching out to private-sector leaders for economic advice. He brought a handful of Washington hands who lead small business trade associations down to Austin last month for a lunch meeting that one participant described as a “pure policy session” on job growth.

And it may be that Perry would like to hold off on hiring economic eggheads for as long as he can. The governor has cultivated an anti-elitist image, distancing himself from his predecessor in the Texas governor’s mansion, George W. Bush, by noting the 43rd president went to Yale, while Perry was a Texas A&M man. On Fox News, he recently blasted Obama for surrounding himself with academics who claim prestigious degrees and no real-world experience. “They are intellectually very, very smart but he does not have wise men and women around him,” Perry said.

As for last night’s debate, according to this Housing Wire story, the nation’s chief economist – Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke – isn’t too popular with this crowd, both Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney saying they would not reappoint Bernanke to another term as the Fed chief if they were elected president, Gingrich saying he’d “fire him tomorrow”.

Based on Newt’s position in polls, Bernanke can rest easy until the end of his term.

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Of Job Growth and Recessions

Add this graphic from this NY Times article to the growing collection of charts portending doom for the U.S. economy (or at least another recession), this one based on the idea that job growth in the U.S. has slowed to a pace that, without exception over the last 50 years, has been associated with recessions (i.e., either heading into, in, or exiting a slowdown).

Of course, word earlier today that weekly jobless claims “unexpectedly” rose, up 2,000 to 414,000 for the week ended Sept. 3rd as employers stepped up their pace of firing, only adds to the negative feedback loop that the U.S. economy entered a few months ago.

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Well, At Least It’s Not 100 Percent

John Hussman’s weekly commentary this morning contained the following chart that should be cause for concern for economists who think we’ll avoid another recession and equity markets that generally respond poorly to economic slowdowns.

I don’t seem to recall seeing this chart last year when a lot of people were talking about a double-dip recession, that is, right up until around mid-summer when the Federal Reserve starting talking very seriously about QE2 and whether it would be better to print up another couple hundred billion dollars or a half a trillion.

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