Economy | - Part 4

The Fed Decision in Two Minutes

This Bloomberg video of some of Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s prepared remarks during her press conference yesterday was popping up all over the place this morning. It’s actually the first four pages of a six page opening statement(.pdf) available at the Fed’s website.

It really just boils down to about the last 10 seconds – central bankers’ fear of deflation:

… in light of the heightened uncertainties abroad and a slightly softer expected path for inflation, the Committee judged it appropriate to wait for more evidence, including some further improvement in the labor market, to bolster its confidence that inflation will rise to 2 percent in the medium term.

The Emporer is Indeed Naked

From Alberto Gallo, head of credit research at RBS, via this item at the Fiscal Times comes this handy guide to post-Great Recession monetary policy and its various effects.

How long will it take for this to become the mainstream view?

After the events of the last few days or so, perhaps sooner rather than later.

Panic on the Street

It looks like they’ll have plenty to talk about this week beyond the official topic of  Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy at the Federal Reserve’s annual gathering of the brain trust in Jackson Hole, WY, what with the sky being full of smoke from physical fires burning to the West and financial markets around the world figuratively going up in smoke.

What’s interesting about recent developments (if not surprising) is that China’s disappointing economy is being blamed for the market turmoil, prime evidence being the graphic below in this Wall Street Journal story today:

What gets short shrift from most media outlets (this Forbes piece by Steve Keen being the exception to the rule) is that we may be looking square in the face of yet another ugly unwind of yet another reckless expansion of credit and debt. Oh well…

Q3 GDP Now Slips to 0.7% Rate

From the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now forecasting tool comes news that the U.S. economy is again slowing (in reading the accompanying note, it’s clear they didn’t get the memo about what impact data collection/reporting adjustments are supposed to have).

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2015 was 0.7 percent on August 13, down from 0.9 percent on August 6. The previously reported nowcast of 1.0 percent for August 6 was revised down due to a minor adjustment in the method for nowcasting investment in computers and peripherals. Since a week ago, the nowcast for the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth has declined from -1.8 percentage points to -2.2 percentage points. This decline more than offset an increase in the nowcast of the third-quarter growth rate in real consumer spending from 2.9 percent to 3.1 percent after the release of this morning’s retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Tagged with:  

China Readies More Stimulus

The sharp 8 percent drop in China exports last month has many thinking more stimulus is on the way for their sputtering quasi-command economy as detailed at Bloomberg.

On a related note, What if Mao still ran China? at the Financial Times points out that growth was pretty good long ago when there was no “quasi-” associated with the economy.

Tagged with:  
Page 4 of 190« First...23456102030...Last »
© 2010-2011 The Mess That Greenspan Made