Economy | timiacono.com - Part 4

Some Disturbing Labor Market Data Points

In the wake of Friday’s dismal labor report that dismal scientists across the country shrugged off as a one-off event come a couple of interesting (and pretty disconcerting) data points for the U.S. labor market that appeared on the intertubes this morning.

First, from this item at David Stockman’s Contra Corner blog comes the chart below showing what U.S. nonfarm payrolls look like without what can only be described as a more than decade long education and health care (mostly the latter) jobs juggernaut.

In short, while the U.S. population has increased by more than 30 million over the last 14 years, there have been no net-job gains in the U.S. labor force when  health care and education workers are removed from the totals, what Stockman calls “a fatuous shibboleth”.

Also… (more…)

Tagged with:  

Second Quarter GDP Growth Revised Higher

The Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy expanded at an annualized rate of 4.2 percent in the second quarter, slightly higher than the 4.0 percent estimate provided a month ago. This follows a first quarter weather-related decline of 2.1 percent.


In this second of three estimates for the April-to-June period, the increase in nonresidential fixed investment was larger than previously reported, while the increase in private inventory investment was smaller than previously estimated.

Interestingly, the Congressional Budget Office just released a downwardly revised estimate of 1.5 percent for 2014 economic growth (previously, it was 3.1 percent), meaning that they’re not very optimistic about the second half of the year. With an average growth rate of 1.05 percent for the first six months, this puts second half growth at just over a 2 percent rate meaning that, once again, a strong “second half rebound” is not likely to materialize.

Tagged with:  

The Conference Board reported that consumer confidence reached a fresh seven-year high this month as Americans are increasingly optimistic about the economy in general and the job market in particular. The group’s confidence index rose from a downwardly revised 90.3 in July to a new recovery high of 92.4 this month as the present situation component jumped 6.7 points to 94.6. The expectations component dipped 1.0 point to 90.9.

Earlier, two reports indicated slowing momentum in the nation’s housing market as the Case Shiller Home Price Index showed declining year-over-year gains, down from 9.3 percent to 8.1 percent, and the FHFA reported price gains dropped from 5.5 percent to 5.1 percent.

Tagged with:  

Too Low for Too Long, Round 2

Based on the results of this survey as reported at the Wall Street Journal Economics blog and depicted below, large numbers of U.S. economists are prepping their 2015 (maybe 2016) “I told you so” commentaries as they relate to the Federal Reserve’s handling of interest rates.

I’m not sure if this is round two or three (i.e., I wasn’t really paying attention back in the early-1990s when Greenspan held rates pretty low for a few years) but, either way, it’s kind of disconcerting to see a plethora of economists (who, by the way, are not known for being the sharpest tools in the shed as far as predicting the future) already thinking the Fed is making the same mistake (one that they’ve never acknowledged) once again.

Page 4 of 220« First...23456102030...Last »
© 2010-2011 The Mess That Greenspan Made