The Rise of Central Bank Balance Sheets

Referenced in this Cumberland Advisors commentary by David Kotok on the subject of central banks and gold was the graphic below depicting how the balance sheets of major central banks around the world have changed since the world changed back in 2008.

If you were to extend the chart to the left, you’d see that bank assets rose modestly for decades while the many economic/financial imbalances were being built up as the end of “The Great Moderation” signaled the beginning of “The Great Central Bank Intervention”.

In all, there are a dozen or so more images in this depressingly good collection of charts(.pdf) at Cumberland that will make you wonder anew where this is all headed.







The Euro Crisis in Economist Covers

I haven’t done one of these animated .gifs in quite a while, but it seemed worth the effort to put together these Economist covers on the euro crisis, particularly when considering the treatment they provide for Germany’s Ms. Merkel, highlighted by that very first one.

Note that you’ll have to read fast because you can’t slow this down, despite the appearance of those little buttons in the lower right. If you’d like to view these at your own pace, just scroll to the bottom of this Economist story about Greece and the euro.

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Debt ‘Round the World

Today’s Daily Chart from the The Economist is chock-full of fun and interesting data on public and private sector debt around the world and, based on the graphic below, us Anglo-Saxons are clearly outpacing the rest of the world when it comes to household debt.

Of course, Japan is the unquestioned leader in government debt – about double that of second place Italy – but, flipping through the tabs of this interactive graphic reveals that, overall, the U.K. is the worst of the lot … it’s a good thing they can print their own money.

The Uneasy Calm in European Bond Markets

Here’s another one of those neat graphics from Spiegel Online, this one related to a story yesterday about what they consider to be only a “temporary respite” from the credit market troubles that have accelerated in recent weeks and months.

If not for the swath of S&P credit downgrades in recent days, there would probably be even more sore arms in Europe from everyone patting each other on the back, that is, after a $500+ billion program of back-door money printing seems to have produced the desired effects on the red and yellow lines above.

Prices are falling all around the world, or so it seems, and that’s a good thing for Bank of England Governor Mervyn King because every time the U.K. inflation comes in too hot – more than a percentage point above the official two percent target – he’s supposed to write a letter of apology to Chancellor George Osborne.

Based on this Telegraph story today, where it was learned that the annual inflation rate fell from 4.8 percent to 4.2 percent, another Dear George letter has likely already been delivered, but Mervyn might be able to take a break sometime this spring as some big tax hikes fall out of the year-over-year consumer price comparisons.

Like a lot of the things we do on this side of the pond, it’s all pretty silly.

I’m not sure if they still do this, but, back in 2007, the Telegraph used to publish the letter from the Bank of England along with the response from the Chancellor of the Exchequer as noted in this item at the old blog. Apparently, with all that’s happened in the aftermath of the financial crisis, no one cares as much about a little inflation.

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An Update on the Iceland Economic Recovery

They’ve yet to write the final chapter on how the path taken by Iceland in the wake of the financial crisis (i.e., letting its banks fail and allowing its currency to plunge while consumer prices soared, all of which seems to have led to a much swifter recovery) compares to the path chosen by the rest of the world (i.e. printing money, propping up the banks, and lots of can-kicking), but this Washington Post story brings readers up to date.

Iceland’s journey from financial ruin to fledgling recovery is a case study in roads not taken and choices not made by other countries faced with calamity in recent years.

By the time the United States and Europe began to wrestle with the fallout of the global financial crisis in 2008, this tiny island nation was experiencing full-fledged meltdown. Its bloated banks failed. Its currency collapsed. The prime minister invoked God’s help, and protesters filled the streets.

Iceland did what the United States chose not to do — allow its biggest banks to fail and force foreign creditors to take a hike. It did what troubled European nations saddled with massive debts and tethered by the euro cannot do — allow its currency to remain weak, causing inflation but making its exports more desirable and its prices more attractive to tourists.

Three years later, the unemployment rate has fallen. Tourism has increased. The economy is growing. The government successfully raised money from investors in the summer for the first time since the crisis.

It’s tempting to conclude that this country of 318,000 people simply handled the crisis more adeptly than others, like a pick-your-own-ending book in which Icelanders chose correctly. There is a sliver of truth in that, but the full story is more complicated.

There’s much more to this report and it’s well worth reading in its entirety.

If nothing else, it should be interesting to see how Iceland is doing three, five, or ten years from now as compared to other Western nations. According to the latest data from The Economist, the Iceland economy has been booming lately, though, for some reason, projections for the New Year are very U.S.-like.

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